【作者】 高明杰；

【导师】 张宝文；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代后,世界粮食总产量增速减缓,近年甚至下降,而需求却在持续上升,2002年需求量已经大于产量,世界谷物库存量也在下降。新一轮的粮食价格上涨已经引起了全球范围的关注,根据众多专家学者的研究,粮食价格上涨的原因在于供给量减少,而供给量的减少的最主要原因则是用于生产粮食的耕地在不断减少。耕地资源是农业综合生产能力的载体,从农业可持续发展的角度和决定粮食安全的根本性因素看,要解决农产品(尤其是粮食)的供给问题,必须提高耕地资源对农业生产的保障能力。论文对当前我国粮食安全与耕地资源安全等热点问题进行了研究。从分析农业生产满足社会、经济发展需求的根本目的入手,在对耕地产出主要农产品需求量进行预测的基础上,测算中国2020年与2030年的耕地资源安全阈值,并评价其安全状况。以期给出一个中国耕地资源紧张状况的量化概念,为国家制定耕地资源安全、农业生产和农产品贸易政策提供更加科学的参考和依据。论文研究内容主要包括以下六部分:(1)对相关研究进展进行了综述研究,在借鉴发展已有研究成果基础上,阐述了农业生产能力需求、耕地资源安全、安全阈值等概念;(2)分析了耕地资源变化的驱动力及其作用机制,在对建国以来我国耕地面积变化分析的基础上,以国土资源部门的数据为准,对1987年以来我国耕地资源数据进行了反演,并基于1987-2006年耕地资源变化率概率分布预测了我国2020年和2030年的耕地资源保有量;(3)根据农业综合生产能力的概念和内涵,采用与国计民生和社会稳定关系重大的粮食、棉花、油料和糖料等耕地上产出的主要农产品产量代表耕地资源生产能力,对四种主要农作物的耕地资源生产能力及区域变化进行了分析;(4)对影响农产品需求的因素进行了分析,从农业生产满足消费的最终目的出发,基于已包含了我国居民长期以来形成的消费习惯和膳食结构等信息的消费数据,预测了我国主要农产品的消费需求量;(5)建立了耕地资源需求量测算模型,并在复种指数、耕地资源利用结构、主要农作物单产、农产品自给率、农产品生产能力调整系数和自然灾害影响系数等相关要素预测的基础上,计算了2020年和2030年我国耕地资源安全阈值,对耕地资源安全状况进行了评价;(6)根据研究结论提出了我国农业综合生产能力耕地资源安全保障的政策建议。通过研究,本文得出以下四个基本结论:(1)我国耕地面积的变化以20世纪80年代初为分水岭,呈现先增后减的态势,预测我国2020年和2030年的耕地资源保有量分别为175140万亩和169956万亩;(2)我国农业综合生产能力快速增长,但由于单产、复种指数等要素继续大幅提高的难度不断增大,我国农业综合生产能力继续快速增长压力加大;(3)随着与农产品消费紧密相关的人口、收入水平和城市化率等因素的增长,我国农产品消费需求将持续刚性增长,预测2020年我国粮食、油料、糖料和棉花的消费需求量将分别达到57065.47万吨、11192.56万吨、13216.43万吨和1459.60万吨,2030年分别达到61226.33万吨、14427.66万吨、15649.07万吨和1878.35万吨;(4)2020年和2030年我国的耕地资源安全阈值分别为164864.98万亩和168608.09万亩。我国耕地资源对农业综合生产能力的保障程度将越来越低,由2005年的中等保障接近于高保障,降到2020年的低保障,2030年耕地资源保有量已经非常接近耕地资源安全阈值,到了缺乏保障的边缘。在相同的自给率组合条件下,耕地资源压力指数不断加大,说明我国农业综合生产能力的增长慢于农产品消费需求的增长。根据研究结论提出建立有效的耕地资源安全基础保护体系、提高耕地质量、提高科技进步对农业综合生产能力的贡献等农业综合生产能力耕地资源安全保障的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 90s of the 20th Century, the increasing rapid of food production has slowed down, even became negative in some year, while the demand of food has been increasing continually. As a result the demand of food has exceeded its supply in 2002, and the stock of grain is also declining in the world. The recent price rising of food has aroused attention of the whole world. According the study of many experts, the reason of food price rising is decrease of food supply, and the further reason is continual decrease of arable land used to produce food. Arable land resource is the carrier of agricultural comprehensive production capacity. Considering the consistent development of agriculture and final factor of food security, the guarantying capacity of agricultural produce by arable land resource must be advanced to solve the problem of farm produce supply, especially food.This dissertation studied the critical issues of food security and arable land resource. The ultimate aim of agricultural production is to satisfy demand of the development of society and economy, beginning with the analysis of this aim, the dissertation measured the demand of arable land resource in 2020 and 2030 in China based on the forecast of farm produce demand, and evaluated the safety status of arable land resource. The dissertation expects a quantificational conception of arable land tension in China to offer more scientific reference for establishment of the policy of arable land security, agricultural production and farm produce trade.The dissertation includes following contents: (1) The conception of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, arable land resource security and safety threshold based on the existing study achievements; (2) The driving forces of arable land change and its operation mechanism were analyzed, quantity of arable land was confirmed from 1987 according to the data issued by the land and resources department, and tenure amount of arable land in 2020 and 2030 was forecasted considering the distribution of changing rate of arable land amount; (3) According to the conception and meaning of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, the dissertation took the production of grain, cotton, Oil Crops, and sugar plants as the representation of production capacity of arable land, because they count for much to the people’s livelihood and society stable, and analyzed spatio-temporal changes of these farm produces; (4) Factors influencing demand of farm produces were analyzed, and demand of farm produces in 2020 and 2030 were forecasted based on the farm produce consumption data which includes information of consumption and meal habit forming in long period; (5)The study established measuring model of arable land demand, and calculated the safety threshold of arable land in 2020 and 2030 after the forecast of cropping index, utilization structure of arable land, adjusting coefficient of grain production capacity, yield of crop, sufficiency rates of farm produces, and influencing coefficient of natural disaster. And the security status of arable land was evaluated also; (6) Some measurements were put forward to ensure the agricultural comprehensive production capacity guaranteed by arable land resource according to the conclusions of the dissertation.The dissertation educed the following conclusions:(1)The arable land area was increasing as a whole before the beginning of 90s of the 20th century, but after that time it has been decreasing. The tenure amount of arable land will be 1.17×108hm2 in 2020 and 1.13×108hm2 in 2030;(2)The agricultural comprehensive production capacity has gain a huge increase, but because it becomes very difficult for cropping index and yield to increase greatly the improvement of agricultural comprehensive production capacity will be difficult also in China;(3)With the increase of population, income and urbanization rate, demand of farm produce will continually increase. According to the result of forecast, the demand of grain, Oil Crops, sugar plants and cotton will reach 5.706×108 tons, 1.119×108 tons, 1.32×108 tons and 0.146×108 tons in 2020,6.123×108 tons, 1.443×108 tons, 1.565×108 tons and 0.188×108 tons in 2030;(4)The safety threshold of arable land will be 1.10×108hm2 in 2020 and 1.12×108hm2 in 2030,and the arable land guarantying of agricultural comprehensive production capacity will decrease ceaselessly before 2030. Under the same combination of sufficiency rates of farm produces, the pressure index continually increases which indicate that improvement of agricultural comprehensive production capacity is slower than the increase of farm produce demand.According to the conclusions, some suggestions was put forward, such as to establish effective basic protective system to ensure security of arable land resource, to improve arable land quality, and to enhance the contribution of science technology progress.更多还原