【作者】 李升；

【导师】 曹剑峰；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 地下水环境作为生态环境的重要组成部分,是社会经济发展以及生态系统稳定的基础以及保障条件之一。在外界人类活动胁迫下,地下水环境的不健康发展,已经危害到周边的生态系统并造成严重的社会经济损失。因此,让脆弱的地下水环境得到可持续发展,并依据一定的理论和技术给出警告与提示,以便科学合理地指导地下水资源的开发利用以及地下水环境的保护,促进地下水环境健康发展是本次研究的目的。论文以地下水环境健康的内涵为基础,以地下水环境健康预警为主线,系统地构建了地下水环境健康预警系统,研究了预警系统的结构及其运行机制,详细介绍了本次研究中用到的预警计算方法—粗糙集理论(RS)以及支持向量机算法(SVM),独立设计了多层次分类器用来改进SVM综合评价的能力,并探讨性提出了粗糙集理论结合支持向量机算法(RSSVM)的综合评价方法。最后,以黄河下游悬河段(河南)为例,应用所建立的预警系统对研究区进行了地下水环境健康预警研究。对研究区2007年的地下水环境健康现状进行评价;并进行了系列年(1998-2007年)的地下水环境健康演化状态分析;结合系列年的地下水环境健康指数预警了2008-2020年研究区地下水环境健康演化趋势,并结合评价及预警结果提出预控措施,建立了人工免疫子系统,给出了地下水环境健康预警的诊断—人工免疫的全过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important part of ecological environment, the groundwater environment is the basic or safeguard condition of socioeconomic development and ecosystem stability. Unhealthy development of the groundwater environment has harmed the around ecosystem and socioeconomic loss by human activities. To keep the weak groundwater environment in continual development stage and find the warning or cue based on some theory and technology, coach the exploitation and usage about groundwater resource or protection of the groundwater environment scientifically and logically and to stimulate groundwater environment in healthy state is the aim of this research .Therefore, this study on the evolvement trend of groundwater environment health by human activities has important ,theoretical and practical value. 1. Establishing the early-warning theory system of groundwater environment health(1) Definition and connotation of groundwater environment health The groundwater environment health is reflected by the state of groundwater system, and the stability and sustainability ability which keep its own function of resources, zoology and geology environment. Accurately declare the groundwater environment health, just is that quantitative qualitative depict the state of groundwater environment properly; and evaluate the function of groundwater at the same time. To manage groundwater environment health scientifically is a process from diagnoses to artificial immunity analog human health.(2) Definition and connotation of groundwater environment health early-warningOn the basis of discussing the connotation of groundwater environment health, this study aims at a process of diagnoses to artificial immunity of groundwater environment health and present the definition and connotation of groundwater environment health early-warning link early-warning conceptual. Groundwater environment health early-warning is to establish an integrated and advanced groundwater environment health early-warning system; to estimate the state of groundwater environment health; to forecast warning degree, analyze the resource of warning; to provide the scientific gist for rational exploitation water resources and improving groundwater environment; to table a proposal of“artificial immunity”, to caution human beings us pay attention to the infection on groundwater environment health of water resources exploitation and then code the human activities.The primary content of groundwater environment health early-warning study is to nail down sense of early-warning, search the resource of early-warning, differentiate the phenomenon of early-warning, forecast warning degree and remove the early-warning hidden trouble. Using the groundwater environment health reflect the“state”of groundwater environment by the compressive stress from the contrived or natural factor; through the groundwater environment health early-warning diagnose and early-warning estimate to ensure the groundwater environment health and early-warning grade; bases the estimate result active respond, scientific management the groundwater environment health, use all kinds of managing measure, remove the early-warning; feedback to groundwater environment, establish the artificial immunity system, then stimulate healthy development of groundwater environment and groundwater resources can be sustainable utilized.2. Establishing the groundwater environment health early-warning system(1) Composing of the groundwater environment health early-warning systemThis thesis established the groundwater environment health early-warning system, to accomplish the groundwater environment health early-warning due to complicated and various characteristic of groundwater system. We establish the groundwater environment health early-warning system on the basis of the system design principle and function. The system included the early-warning diagnose subsystem, the early-warning signal subsystem and the artificial immunity subsystem. The early-warning diagnose subsystem and early-warning signal subsystem accomplished the warning function and artificial immunity subsystems accomplished the beforehand control function.(2) Establishing the early-warning diagnose subsystemIn this research, we attempt to establish an early-warning diagnose subsystem to estimate and early-warning the actuality or the developing trend of groundwater environment health. Early-warning diagnose subsystem includes the early-warning index architecture and the early-warning calculation methods. The study established the groundwater environment health early-warning index architecture from the point of view of been intimidated, which include stress index, state index, and response index adopting the PSR construction. The groundwater environment health early-warning index architecture can be divided into four gradations, which are object tier, rule tier, target tier, and sub target tier. The study divided the 44 indexes into three states according to national and local standard, which are healthy, sub healthy and unhealthy grade states and provides law for groundwater environment health early-warning and diagnosis .The early-warning calculation methods are Rough Sets(RS) and supporting vector machines(SVM) .3. Early-warning calculation method(1) Rough sets (RS) and supporting vector machines (SVM) calculation methodsThe study supplied the RS and SVM into groundwater environment estimation for the first time, introduced the basic information of two methods, defined the steps of attributing reduction and weight calculation about RS; and defined the steps of class by SVM and the principle of supporting vector regress machines (SVR), according to deficiency of provided a new method to estimate the groundwater environment health according to designing a multi-hierarchy classify machine to ameliorate the SVM.(2) Present the RS unite SVM methodWe attempted unite the RS and SVM and presented the RSSVM methods herein the disadvantage about SVM. To regard the RS as a preprocessor to SVM, we firstly finished attributing reduction, received a simplest and main attributing sample sets; then let the least input quantity into SVM which can be reduced the calculation quantity in the process of the classify by SVM, retrenched the time of training, also can be avoid the over fit in training model, but the precision of fit, classify can keep classic. RSSVM has some characteristics such as low calculation quantity, high veracity and high calculation speed.4. Application of the groundwater environment health early-warning system in Yellow river lower reaches suspend river section ( HeNan province).(1) The evolutionary rule of groundwater environment health early-warning index.The groundwater environment of research area is facing a strange challenge during 20 years’irrationally exploitation and usage of groundwater. The groundwater environment of research area went through three stages, original stage, artificial-natural balancing development stage, artificial-natural inharmonic development stage. Today, the groundwater environment of research area is turning into a new stable stage, but it is a groundwater environment in unhealthy stable state.The trend of development of sociometric index will be in a better direction by analyzing the evolutionary regularity of groundwater environment health early-warning index and the trend of development of water resources needing index will keep balanced. But the trend of development of environment effect index will not be optimistic, which will cause the groundwater environment health trend to exasperate. If we want to ordinate the groundwater environment, we must deal with these questions. The total groundwater environment health will keep steady, if there are not strong intimidate from external environment.(2) Estimate the groundwater environment health early-warning of research area.All the four sub-areas are in healthy state by using the early-warning diagnose subsystem diagnosed the tale quale of the groundwater environment health. We contrasted the result and the number of the disciplinarian or class stylebook and proved RSSSVM is a viable method and have the advantage of less quantity of calculation than SVM. Then, we calculated the general exponential of the groundwater environment health from 1998 to 2007.At last, we warned the states of the groundwater environment health from 2008 to 2020 by SVR and we presented the early-warning signal by early-warning signal system(3) The evolutionary rule and trend of the groundwater environment health.After analyzing the results of the tale quale and mean annual states or early-warning, the groundwater environment health was keeping sub-healthy in mean annual. As the response measure be actualized, the groundwater environment health has been improved. But the trend changed slowly and the effect was un-conspicuous, and the trend of future will keep steady with small extent wave. We can make sure that the emphasize particularly on response measure should lighten the lighten of water resources supply-demand, improve the groundwater quality in research area by analyzing the estimate index.5. Establish the artificial immunity subsystemBased on the early-warning results and pre-control measures presented, the study established the artificial immunity subsystem. The artificial immunity subsystem included five systems they were the groundwater environment synthetically managing system; the groundwater environment organizing, programming, construction managing system; the groundwater environment monitoring early-warning system; the groundwater environment fund management assuring system; the groundwater environment management policy and law complement system. These five system will finish the artificial immunity of the groundwater environment health and can stop the effect of unhealthy factor on groundwater environment health, which can ensure the groundwater environment health succeed to immunity all kinds of adverse factors and keep the sustainable development of groundwater environment.更多还原