【作者】 周天；

【导师】 沈荣芳；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【副题名】以中等城市防火能力优化为目标的消防安全研究

【摘要】 城市是国家政治、经济、文化的集中地,是现代化建设的主要基地,在国民经济和社会发展中占有十分重要的地位。随着城市化建设的快速发展,大型的高层建筑、特大工矿企业不断呈现,机场、车站、码头等城市设施规模也不断扩大,一旦发生大火,不仅极易造成巨大经济损失,使国家、人民财产毁于一旦,还有可能造成大量的人员伤亡,给社会的稳定造成不良影响。城市的火灾危险性是不可避免的,且随着社会经济的发展、物资资源的丰富呈上升趋势,但城市易损性是可以改变的,只要城市对火灾有足够的抗御能力,则完全可能减轻火灾对城市造成的破坏。本文的工作主要集中于三个方面:城市火灾风险研究、城市防火能力研究、城市防火能力优化研究。在火灾风险研究方面,本文以灰色关联分析法为基础分析了城市火灾的致灾因子和时段分布,对火灾风险评价准则及评价方法进行了研究,运用城市火灾风险评价方法(UFRA——Urban Fire Risk Assessment),以城市近年火灾统计情况、火灾危险程度、抗御火灾能力为评价指标,构建了火灾风险评价体系,并将海南省海口市作为研究对象,对城市火灾风险进行了试评价。在城市防火能力研究方面,本文以提高消防部门抗御火灾能力为核心,首先分析研究了近年来城市火灾状况,对提高城市防火能力的途径进行了研究。随后从安全经济学角度分析了影响城市防火能力的因素,站在可持续发展的角度,寻找易操作、可量化的指标,建立了一套包括三个一级指标和十个二级指标构成的城市防火能力评价指标体系。接着分析了系统评价的基本方法,为使评价结果尽可能做到客观、公正,采用定性与定量相结合的方式,以AHP和模糊综合评价方法为基础,构建了中等城市防火能力评价方法。运用该方法对海口市的防火能力进行评价,并对评价结果和指标权重进行了分析,找到提高城市防火能力的关键因素,为城市的防火减灾规划、资源分配和消防设施建设等各项工作服务。此外,本文还讨论了层次分析法在城市防火能力评价中出现的一些问题,并提出了完善意见,提出了一种思路,即利用人工神经网络自学习、自适应以及与遗传算法相结合等特点,改进城市防火能力评价中层次分析的计算模式,这些工作将拓宽今后城市消防安全评价的实际应用。在城市防火能力优化研究方面,本文首先以安全经济学理论为基础,通过对城市防火能力优化中火灾损失核算方法和城市发展对火灾损失影响的讨论,研究了城市火灾的成本——效益模型,建立了以最优消防安全投资为核心的城市防火能力优化目标。随后对边际分析方法在城市消防安全投资领域的运用进行了研究,以消防安全投资最优为目标,对海口市火灾损失与消防投资平衡进行了试分析,并检验了所建议的优化策略对城市防火能力的优化效果。最后,在研究展望中对城市防火能力评价、优化的研究方向进行了简要的讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 City , the center of politics, economy and culture , is the main base of modernization construction. It plays an important role in the development of civil economy and society., Large-scale high-rise buildings and manufacture enterprises were built with the fast development of the urbanization . The scale of facilities such as airports, transportation stations and wharfs in city get biger and biger . Once fire happens, it will not only bring tremendous economic losing for both people and the cociety , but also cause much loss of people’s lives and endanger blight of social stability. Fire disaster is inevitable for any city and trends to increase with the development of economy and enrichment of material resources, but the vulnerability of a city can be changed. As long as city possesses enough defensive ability for fire disaster, it can alleviate the harmfulness to city caused by conflagration.This work mainly focus on three aspects: the research of city fire risks , the research on the ability of urban fire protection, the research on optimization of urban fire protection.On the research of fire risk, disaster-causing factors and hazard inducing environment of city fire are discussed. Fire risk criterion and assessment method are researched. According to fire statistics in recent years, dangerous degree of fire and fire prevention capability of city, fire risk evaluation system is established on the basis of fuzzy synthetical evaluation method. Evaluation on fire risk in Haikou city is carried out.On the research of urban fire protection ability, the main body of the thesis improves fire department ability of resisting and defending fire .Analysis and research on city fire status in recent years is emphasized. Approaches to alleviate city fire losses and strengthen urban fire protection ability are analyzed, with starting point of economics, as well as the investment of strengthening urban fire protection ability. In addition, on the basis of analyzing the factors which affect the urban fire protection ability and annotation with sustainable development angle, indexes which are easy for performing and quantization are found and a urban fireproof ability criterion system is set up. This criterion system consists of 3 first grade indicators and 10 second grade indicators. First grade indicators include urban features influence factor, urban fire supervision ability, fire fighting and rescuing capability and society management capability. On the basis of urban fire protection criterion system, principle of systematic evaluation, common theories and general procedures are discussed. By use of AHP, evaluation on the urban fire protection and analysis on the weight of each index are carried out, key elements which can improve fireproof ability of city are discovered. It can service for the planning of city disaster prevention and reduction, resource allocation and the construction of urban fire-fighting installations. Besides, method of fire protection ability evaluation based on neural network is discussed. Neural network has the properties of self-learning, self-organizing and self-adapting which make neural network acceptable for making decision in inaccurate and fuzzy knowledge environment. On the basis of these advantages, the neural network can be used to be the effective tool which can solve the dynamic and nonlinear problems in evaluation of urban fire protection. It provides a new thinking in the fire safety evaluation research.On the research of optimization of urban fire protection ability, Firstly, on the basis of safety economics theory, with discussion of accounting methods of fire loss in urban fire protection ability optimization and the affect of city expand on fire loss, the cost-benefit model of city fire are researched and optimization objective of fire protection ability which centralize on optimal fire safety investment is set up. Secondly, application of marginal method in urban fire safety investment is researched. Taking the optimization of fire safety investment as the target, this paper tries to analyze the fire loss and balance of fire safety investment, and the optimization effect of optimization tactics which is proposed for urban fire protection ability is discussed.Finally, prospects of development trend of urban protection ability evaluation and optimization are discussed simply.更多还原