【作者】 李建华；

【导师】 彭世揆；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 全球气候变暖是当前人类面临的最大环境问题之一,也是21世纪人类共同面临的严峻挑战。《京都议定书》的出台和生效给发达国家的温室气体减排制定了具体的目标。为了帮助发达国家完成其减排目标,《京都议定书》制定了三种灵活的减排机制,其中清洁发展机制是发达国家与发展中国家之间合作进行减排的唯一机制。根据规定,发达国家可以利用清洁发展机制下的造林、再造林项目来部分抵消其温室气体减排额度。论文主要进行了以下几个方面的研究:(1)针对人们对于清洁发展机制下造林、再造林项目所营造森林名称的迷惑,给出了碳汇林的定义,并对其经营管理目标、经营原则及技术要点进行了分析,指出在进行造林设计时应该尽量使用乡土树种;避免营造纯林,多营造复层林和混交林;进行森林采伐时要尽量避免皆伐作业,利用生态伐的方式;利用模型、模拟决策系统等多种措施避免森林碳汇产生的泄漏问题。(2)对森林碳汇的经济属性及交易机制进行了简要分析,并指出森林碳汇具有明确的资产特性,其产权应该分为林地产权、林木产权和碳汇产权。(3)对碳汇林碳贮量的监测方法进行了研究,指出碳汇林的监测对象不是以木材为主,而是对其碳贮量的变化进行监测,同时在监测时要考虑到碳汇林的基线问题与泄漏问题等。(4)通过调查获得的样地和生物量资料,建立了杨树的地位指数模型和林分生长模型,建立了杨树的生物量扩展因子模型,并根据森林可认证减排量的交易规则,分析了森林可认证减排量的计算方法,建立了森林可认证减排量的计算模型。(5)构建了森林可认证减排量成本价格模型,并指出森林可认证减排量成本价格受交易成本、立地条件、造林面积、造林密度等方面的影响,其中交易成本对森林可认证减排量的价格影响比较大,尤其对于造林规模较小的林业碳汇项目可能使其成本价格过高而无法运行;其次造林面积对于森林可认证减排量的价格有很大的影响,通过研究发现在造林面积为2000-4000hm~2时,开展林业碳汇项目比较合适。(6)把风险管理的理论应用于碳汇林的经营,并把碳汇林经营的风险归纳为自然风险、政策风险、技术风险、市场风险以及资金风险等几种类型,同时讨论了碳汇林风险识别的方法,以及应对碳汇林经营风险的策略等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global climate warming is one of the serious Environmental Problems and an austere challenge of the human facing in the 21st Century. Formulation and implementation of the Kyoto protocol have set up the quantitative targets to reduce greenhouse gases for the developed countries. In order to assist developed countries to complete their reducing goal, Kyoto protocol have constituted three so-called flexible mechanisms: Joint Implementation、Clean Development Mechanism and Emission Trading, in which Clean Development Mechanism is the only one that was collaborated between developing countries and developed. According to the rules of Clean Development Mechanism, developed countries can use afforestation and reforestation projects to deduct their greenhouse gases emission quota.The main studying of this paper are the followings:(1)Aimed to the confused name of forest under Clean Development Mechanism, the carbon sequestration forest was defined; the goal, principle and techniques of carbon forest management were analyzed. We proposed more native species, mixed stands for the plantation instead of pure forest were planted, and suggested that instead of clear-cutting, the method of ecological harvesting should be used. Also, models and simulations for decision-making system should be put to use to avoid leaking problems produced by forest carbon sequestration.(2)Studying on the economic attributes and trading mechanism of carbon sequestration, and asset attribute of carbon sequestration have been pointed out, its property rights should been divided stand right, timber right and carbon sequestration right.(3)Studying on the survey methods of carbon sequestration, pointed out the main surveying-object of carbon sequestration forest is carbon sequestrations instead of timber, at the same time the baseline and leaking should be considered.(4)Through the data of sample plots and biomass by investigation, we developed a Site Index Model, growth model and biomass expansion factor model of poplar and analyzed the computing method and model of forest certified emission reduction according to the trade regulation as well.(5)On the developed the price model of forest certified emission reduction, the results in terms of the price of forest certified emission reduction was affected by transaction cost, site conditions, plantation areas and planting densities, etc. Among of them, the price of forest certified emission reduction was seriously influenced by transaction cost. Especially to small forest carbon sequestration projects, it is hard to be traded because of high transaction cost. Also, the price of forest certified emission reduction was affected by plantation area. The research results indicated forest carbon sequestration project was feasible when the plantation area was about 2000-4000hm~2.(6) The risk management theory was applied in the carbon sequestration forest management in the paper, and we have divided the risks into natural risk, policy risk, technical risk, market risk and financing risk, etc. At the same time, methods of evaluating these risks and measures to avoid these risks have been discussed in the paper.更多还原