中国新材料产业成长与发展研究

【作者】 陈建勋；

【导师】 靖学青；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 产业经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文试图以产业成长理论、产业组织理论和产业竞争力理论为理论依托,对我国新材料产业从产业萌芽成长至现阶段这一过程进行全面梳理,从中寻找我国新材料产业成长的特征并加以分析,对我国新材料产业的产业特征、产业链、产业规模、产业集中度以及产业标准进行全面分析,对我国新材料产业成长过程中的技术进步、产业组织和政府在产业发展中的作用等影响新材料产业成长的环境因素进行系统研究分析,从而提出相应的提升产业竞争力、促进产业健康成长与发展的对策建议。本文认为,从理论上来说,对新材料产业的研究意义在于,作为一个新兴产业,中国完全有机会在这一领域实现跨越式发展,因此,新材料产业应该是一个具有跨越式成长特性的产业。在传统的产业成长理论中,并没有提出产业跨越式或跳跃式发展的系统理论(除熊彼特的创新导致产业突变理论外),本文试图通过对中国新材料产业实现跨越式发展的可能性研究,提出产业成长中跨越式发展的现实因素及其理论分析,从而丰富产业成长理论的内涵。同时从现实角度来说,本文试图从构建国家战略产业的高度、从国家经济发展又好又快的角度去研究,提出促进新材料产业健康成长与发展的具体对策措施,为政府制定促进发展新材料产业的政策提供决策依据。本文共分三个版块:第一部分包括第一、第二章,是本文的基础理论部分。主要是提出问题,对相关理论进行综述与分析,为论文的展开提供理论基础。第二部分包括第三章至第六章,是本文的重点。其中第三章介绍分析了新材料产业的特性,描述了世界新材料产业的发展现状和趋势;第四章回顾了我国新材料产业的成长阶段,着重分析了转型阶段我国新材料产业在行业结构、产品结构和区域结构方面的特征,并阐述了我国新材料产业的国际地位;第五章运用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数法对我国新材料产业技术进步进行了测算,以测算资本投入、技术进步和劳动力增长对我国新材料产业的不同贡献率,从而揭示我国新材料产业的发展方式以及形成这种方式的主要原因。第六章运用SCP理论框架,并结合中国新材料产业的特点,通过翔实的数据资料,分别从市场结构、市场行为和经济绩效角度研究评价我国新材料产业组织状况,找出我国新材料产业成长中产业组织方面存在的障碍。第七章、第八章是本文的第三部分,着重对影响我国新材料产业成长中的制约因素进行分析,重点对政府在产业成长中的作用、新材料产业组织的变革等因素进行分析,并提出促进我国新材料产业成长的有关政策建议。本文的主要结论是:一、我国的新材料产业的分布主要是以产业基地的形式进行的。从产业经济学的角度分析,是属于产业成长中的引导模式与强制模式相结合的一种促进产业成长的方式。二、从发展趋势上看,中国制造在全球处在从垂直分工向水平分工的转型过程中,而新材料最有可能首当其冲。新材料是我国在国际水平分工中可能突破的第一大领域。三、通过对2002-2005年上市新材料企业C-D模型回归计算,新材料产业2002-2004年的快速增长主要是由技术进步等带来的效率提升推动的,2005年的井喷式增长则主要由资本投入的扩张推动的。其中的主要原因是上市新材料企业加大了资本运作力度,兼并和收购了上下游产业链的相关企业,这种并购活动在2005年至2006年达到了高峰,规模报酬递增效应明显。随着产出规模的扩大,我国新材料产业的技术进步贡献率却不断降低,特别是2005年产出急剧增长的同时伴随着效率不再提升的现象。这说明大量新材料上市企业采用的是购并等外延式的产业扩张模式,在短时间内投入了大量的资本,扩展了行业规模,真正依赖技术进步的内涵式发展的模式十分少见。四、中国新材料产业的发展的特殊性决定了该产业的市场运作行为的特殊性。这种特殊性表现为:1、新材料在其产业化、市场化过程中,更多地依赖于政府的财力支持和产业发展政策。各地政府在新材料的产业化市场化过程中扮演了极为重要的角色,在中国这样的发展中国家,政府在推动新兴产业发展过程中的作用是十分重要的,它能使新材料产业在中国尽快地形成并发育成熟。但同时,政府的深深进入却也造成了一些不可避免的负面影响。由于地方政府对新材料产业宏观进程把握的缺陷、对新材料产业在市场化进程中市场的微观变化反应有一定的时滞,因此,在选定新材料发展的具体目标时,往往内容雷同,其直接结果是,在中国新材料产业的发展中造成了某些行业的重复建设(特别是在进入成本相对较低、市场化启动较为容易的新型建材领域),某些行业的投入却又严重不足。2、新材料在其产业化、市场化过程中,较多地依赖于国家宏观经济形势的好坏、依赖于各地不同的产业基础,一般来说,与本地产业关联度大的新材料项目都发展得较好,反之,则大多在低水平中运行。五、中国大飞机项目的确定是中国新材料产业从量变走向质变的一个标志性事件,从技术层面上来说,意味着中国的新材料产业经过近20多年的发展,特别是近10年的发展,已经拥有了一批在世界上领先的核心技术,已经具备了对世界先进技术的吸收能力。从产业发展层面来说,意味着对新材料产业链的整合将进入一个更高的层次,意味着对新材料产业组织的变革已经越来越急迫,新材料产业的成长将进入一个全新的阶段。六、由于产业突变,打破了传统的产业生命周期理论,在现代经济条件下,更多的产业突变成为一种现实与可能。特别是新材料产业的发展更是具有这样的特点。同时我们必须对熊彼特的理论作出中国式的解释,熊彼特解释了构成产业突变的五种情形,但并未对这5种情形之间的关系作出逻辑分析和定量分析。而对他们之间的逻辑关系的分析,在中国显得特别重要。在以政府为主导的经济发展体系中,新材料产业的发展对政府的依赖性更大,表现在对研发资金的需求上、自然资源的取得上、对产业链的整合上等各个方面。由于产业组织的主体是政府或是体现政府产业政策的大型企业,因此在中国要想取得熊彼特式的产业突变,必须首先变革产业组织体系,即必须首先实现产业组织体系的创新。本文认为,如果说对于熊彼特来说,构成产业突变的5个要件之间是一种层次上的递进的话,那么,对于中国来说,构成产业突变的要素之间的逻辑关系可能应该演变为这样的顺序:产业组织体系的创新—市场及资源的创新—技术与方法的创新—产业突变。七、地方政府特别是强势地方政府更应该在合理运用行政资源的同时,改变用计划指令的办法来划定创新区域、分配创新资金。政府绝不能用发展制造业的做法来指导技术创新,不能像管理制造业一样来定时间节点、定数量指标,地方政府更应该重点去研究发现全球不同区域创新主体的不同运作方式、基于不同区域特征而形成的各自知识系统的特点尤其是形成这些知识系统的文化背景。中国新材料产业的发展的政策特别是地方政府的政策要作出调整,不能用发展工业化的思路来管理新材料产业,而要用产业化的思路来规划新材料产业。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article attempts to search out the growth characteristics of new material industry in China by way of analyzing its growth at all stages based on industry growth theory, industry organization theory and industry competitiveness theory. The aim of this article is to present relevant advices and suggestions for new material industry in China to advance industry competitiveness and promote industry growth through analysis of characteristics, chain, scale centralization and standard in this industry.The author’s opinion is that new material industry displays all the characteristics for salutatory development. However, there are no relevant views in traditional industrial growth theory (except for Schumpeter’s theory of innovation). The significance of this article is to introduce a‘saltatory development’theory for industrial growth by way of feasibility study in relevant area of Chinese new material industry. Some realistic advices and measures are put forward to stimulate health growth in this industry. The author hopes such advices and measures can also help government to make relevant, effective polices.This article includes three main sections:1. The first section-theory research includes chapter one and chapter two. They are summaries and analysis of relevant theories and theoretical basis of this article.2. The second section is from chapter 3 to chapter 6, which is the soul of this article. Chapter 3 is the introduction of characteristics, state of the art and trend of development of new material industry in the world. Chapter 4 is the review of all stages of development in Chinese new material industry, which emphasizes structural characteristics of industry, product and region at stage of transition. This chapter also introduces international status of Chinese new material industry. Chapter 5 is the calculation of contribution rate of capital input, technological advancement and labor force increase to new material industry in China. Cobe-Douglas Production Function is applied in this calculation to reveal development forms of Chinese new material industry and main causes leading such forms. Chapter 6 is the evaluation of organization status in Chinese new material industry from aspects of marketing structure, marketing behavior and economy performance. SCP theory frame is used to find out barriers existing in development of industrial organizations. Detailed and accurate data is used for analysis of mode of production.3. Chapter 7 is analysis of factors restricting development of new material industry in China, which focuses on the functions of government and the transformation of industrial organization.The important research findings of this article are:1.‘Industrial base’is main distributing form of new material industry in China. From the point of view of industrial economics, it combines guidance mode with compulsion mode to stimulate industry growth.2. Industrial division for China is at the turning point in the course of changing form the vertical to the horizontal. Chinese new material industry is likely to be the first field to achieve such divisions.3. The C-D model regression analysis of listed new material companies in China from year 2002-year 2004 shows that efficiency improvement coming from technological advancement results in rapid growth in this industry. Chinese new material industrial was booming in 2005 due to huge capital input. Mergers and acquisitions culminated during year 2005 and 2006, which results in obviously increasing returns to scale. However, along with expanding scale of output, contribution rate of technological advancement was continuously decreasing, especially in year 2005.4. Particularity of development in Chinese new material industry determines particularity in its market operation. Such particularities include: industrial development more depends on: 1). Financial support and policies of government in the course of industrialization; 2). Macro-economical situation and industry foundation in different regions.5. Chinese Big-airplane project is a milestone (from quantitative change to qualitative change) in development of new material industry. From the point of view of industrial technique, it indicates China’s leading role of some core technologies in this area. Chinese new material industry has already had ability to absorb advanced technologies in the world after nearly 20 years’development, especially in last 10 years. From the point of view of industrial development, it indicates conformity of industrial chain will reach a higher level; transformation of organizations in new material industry is peremptory; and new material industry will enter a whole new stage of development.6. In the economic development system where government plays a leading role, the development of new material industry more depends on the governments polices regarding research and development funds, natural resources and conformity of industrial chain. In China, the main body of industrial organization is government or enterprises implementing industrial polices of government. Innovation of industrial organization must be achieved first to obtain so-called‘industrial mutation’in Joseph A Schumpeter’s theory of innovation.7. Local government especially stern local government should make rational use of administrative resources and abolish executive orders to designate innovation zone and allocate innovation funds. The government must never use administrative methods for manufacturing industry to direct technological innovation. Policies, especially from the local government must be adjusted to accelerate the industrialization of new material industry.更多还原