【作者】 欧阳建涛；

【导师】 刘晓君；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 住宅产业在整个国民经济中占有重要的地位,住宅产业的持续健康发展,对国民经济和社会发展意义重大。城市住宅寿命周期的长短,不仅关系到建筑资源和社会财富节约与否的问题,而且关系到社会和谐、环境污染、产业可持续发展等问题。系统研究中国城市住宅寿命周期,不仅可为政府科学调控和管理住宅产业提供理论依据,而且可为住宅相关企业制定战略策略提供实践工具。本文首先研究了中国城市住宅寿命周期影响因素。从住宅设计使用年限、结构设计和建筑设计三个方面研究了住宅设计对寿命周期的影响。从住宅建设和住宅管理政策分析了其对住宅寿命周期的影响,并定量分析了住宅拆迁量与新建量、销售面积和销售价格的关系。从国民经济、住宅初始投资、居住空间、土地使用制度、城市及其人口的变化、技术进步六个方面,深入探讨了其对住宅寿命周期的影响。其次,研究了中国城市住宅的经济寿命。结合住宅特点,分别用年度收益法、劣化数值法和平均费用法构建了住宅经济寿命计算模型,通过实证分析得出了中国城市住宅经济寿命的长短及特点,并进行了敏感性分析。在住宅寿命周期成本理论分析的基础上,构建了中国城市住宅寿命周期成本计算模型。研究了基于住宅经济寿命的城市住宅更新问题,探讨了住宅更新损益的计算方法,并对城市住宅系统更新决策方法进行了研究。再次,研究了中国城市住宅的使用寿命。从住宅结构类型入手,对既有住宅剩余使用寿命的计算进行了研究,在此基础上探讨了住宅最优剩余使用寿命的计算方法。基于模糊聚类理论建立了拟建住宅使用寿命的预测方法,并结合实例进行了分析。分别用统计分析、威布尔模型、寿命表和生存分析四种不同方法探讨了城市住宅使用寿命计算模型。通过实证分析得到了中国城市住宅使用寿命的长短及特点。之后,对中国城市住宅寿命周期影响评价进行了研究。从家庭消费行为、生活成本、社会关系网络和社会心理四个方面分析了住宅寿命周期的社会影响。通过实证定量分析了住宅使用寿命周期的经济影响,并得出了中国城市住宅的最优使用寿命。在住宅寿命周期能耗分析的基础上,构建了中国城市住宅寿命周期能耗分析模型。结合实证研究得出住宅寿命周期能耗特点。最后,提出了延长中国城市住宅寿命周期对策。提出通过住宅寿命周期设计以及住宅寿命周期集成化管理以延长住宅寿命周期的思路。研究了旧住宅更新改造的价值、方法和政策保障。从完善住宅质量法律规范体系和完善住宅性能认定保证住宅长寿进行了探讨。提出通过完善城市住宅拆迁制度,以尽量减少住宅短命中人为因素的设想。通过住宅过滤机制的建立使住宅的耐久性使用价值得到了充分的利用。通过自组织改建住房机制的建立消除引发的社会矛盾,实现社会和谐发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Housing industry has been possessing important position in the whole national economy. If housing industry develops healthily and continually, it will do huge contribution to the whole economy and the social development. The length of housing life cycle not only concerns the problem of building resource and wealth of society, and concerns the problem of social harmonious, environmental pollution and housing industry sustain development. Systematic study on Chinese city housing life cycle not only affects the adjusting and controlling of government scientific and formulating the policy of management housing industry, and affects the strategic strategy arrangement of the enterprises related to housing industry.This paper studies the influencing factor of Chinese city housing life cycle at first. From housing design working life, structural design and architectural design, the paper studied the influence of housing designed. From housing construction and housing manage policy analysis its influence for housing life cycle. From national economy, housing initial investment, housing space and the change of land use system, city and its population to discuss its influence for housing life cycle.Secondly, the economic life of Chinese city housing is studied. The life cycle cost theory is used to study the calculation of the housing life cycle cost analysis, and the calculation model of the housing life cycle cost is established. The calculation model of the housing economic life is set up used differently annual profit method, deterioration value method, and average cost method. Through sample analysis the length and characteristic of the economic life of Chinese city housing is gotten, and sensitivity analysis is carried out. On this foundation, refresh problem of city housing is studied, the calculation method of increasing and decreasing of housing refresh is discussed, and the decision method of city housing system refresh is studied.Then, the service life of Chinese city housing is studied. The housing structural type is regarded as the entry; study on the calculation of housing surplus service life is carried out. On this foundation the calculation principle of housing optimum surplus service life is discussed. Based on fuzzy assemble theory the forecast method of housing to be established service life is set up, and the related example is analyzed. The paper uses statistical analysis, Weibull model, life table and survival analyse to discuss city housing service life calculate model. Through sample analysis the length and characteristic of the service life of Chinese city housing is gotten.After it, the influential of housing life cycle are analyzed. This paper analyzed the social influential of housing life cycle from family consumer behavior, life cost and social network and social psychological. Through sample analysis the optimum service life of Chinese city housing is gotten. On the foundation of analyzing life cyle energy, the calculation model of the housing life cycle energy is established. Through sample analysis the characteristic of life cycle energy of Chinese city housing is gotten.At final the strategy that realizes housing long life and housing life cycle goal is studied. It is suggested designed the housing of long life with housing life cycle design, and through housing life cycle integrated management guaranteed the realization of housing life cycle goal. It is suggested through perfecting the legal standard of housing quality and perfecting housing function to believe system, guaranteed housing of high quality, and realized housing long life and housing life cycle goal. On the foundation of analyzing old housing to renew policy guarantee, method and the value of transform, it is suggested that through perfect city housing removed system, reduced housing not long life in artificial factor. It is suggested establish housing filter to make housing endurance value to get ample use.The city housing refreshing housing which community organize of its own accord and carry out are studied to reduce to eliminated social contradiction, and to realize the social harmonious development.更多还原