【作者】 陈超；

【导师】 沙基昌；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 战争设计工程是一种对未来战争复杂系统进行分析与设计的工程化方法。战争设计工程的基本思想是综合集成各领域专家的智慧,采用定性与定量相结合的方法解决战争复杂系统的设计问题。集成群体专家的智慧对未来战争进行设计,不但能有效降低专家认知过程单一视角的片面性和局限性,减少认知的不确定性,同时也使得设计的干预策略更加具有创新性、科学性、完整性和鲁棒性。因此,在战争设计过程中,如何有效集成各领域专家的智慧是战争设计工程中的核心问题。论文的研究力图解决这个问题——战争设计工程中群体专家智慧集成。目前,无论是在国内还是国外,对群体专家智慧集成的研究都是一个崭新的前沿课题,而且随着战争复杂性研究的快速发展,以及战争系统规划、设计中对专家智慧集成需求的不断深入,使得本文问题的研究无论是在理论上还是应用上都有非常重要的意义。本文在对战争设计工程中群体专家智慧集成概念及特点研究的基础上,提出了战争设计工程中群体专家智慧集成框架,探索了面向设定动态演化的专家智慧纵向集成以及基于群体研讨的专家智慧横向集成。本文的主要研究内容和创新研究成果如下:首先,对战争设计工程理论体系进行了介绍,指出综合集成各领域专家的智慧是战争设计工程解决问题的根本。在此基础上,提出了战争设计工程中群体专家智慧集成的概念,并对战争设计工程中群体专家智慧集成的特点,以及智慧集成与数据集成、信息集成、知识集成之间的关系进行了深入分析。其次,在群体专家智慧集成概念分析的基础上,提出了战争设计工程中群体专家智慧集成的三维框架——组织维、纵向维和横向维,对三个维度的含义以及关系进行了详细分析。在组织维分析中,分析了群体专家在整个战争设计过程中的重要作用和能力要求,提出了多领域专家互动关系模型;在纵向维分析中,针对战争设计工程流程中“设定”动态演化的特点,提出了面向设定动态演化的流程分析框架;在横向维分析中,分析了导致专家团队动态组建的原因,提出了战争设计工程中群体专家的动态组建过程。第三,研究了专家智慧纵向集成,专家智慧纵向集成主要体现在战争设计工程中设定的动态演化上。在对战争设计工程中设定动态演化的概念及特点研究的基础上,提出了群体专家智慧集成过程中设定动态演化的实现机制——设定动态演化的任务协作保障和技术实现保障。针对任务协作保障,详细研究了战争设计流程中各领域专家任务之间的分工与协作关系;针对技术实现保障,详细研究了群体专家智慧集成过程中定性定量相结合解决问题的方法和过程。第四,研究了专家智慧横向集成,专家智慧横向集成主要包括如何根据研讨目标的变化动态地组建合理的研讨团队以及如何实现有效的研讨。根据专家团队动态组建的特性,提出了领域专家评价元模型,对评价元模型中指标体系的构建和评价方法进行了详细分析,并给出了领域专家团队组建的步骤。在此基础上,对现有的各种研讨形式进行分析,给出了基于关键词的研讨过程思维发散性和收敛性度量方法,并提出了以控制研讨过程中思维发散和收敛为主线的领域专家规范化研讨过程。最后,以信息系统对潜艇作战能力影响分析为例,对群体专家按照战争设计工程的流程,采用定性定量相结合解决问题的过程,以及战争设计过程中设定的动态演化进行了验证。以新信息系统对海上编队作战能力影响分析中初始设定的研讨过程为例,对本文提出的规范化研讨过程的应用进行了验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 War Design Engineering is an engineering-method for analyzing and designing the future war complex system. The basic concept of War Design Engineering is to solve the war designing issues by integrating the wisdom of realm experts and adapting the combining quantitative and qualitative method. By integrating the wisdom of expert group to design future war, the unilateralism and localization of single viewpoint as well as the uncertainty in the process of perceiving can be reduced effectively, furthermore, the designed intervening strategies will be more innovative, scientific, complete and robust. Therefore, in the process of war designing, the key issue which should be solved in the theory of War Design Engineering is how to integrate the wisdom of every realm expert effectively. Under the current background, this paper tries to solve the issue of wisdom integration of expert group in the War Design Engineering. At present, the research about wisdom integration of expert group is a new topic in worldwide. In addition, with the rapid development of research on war complexity expert wisdom integration becomes more and more important in war system design, so the research in this paper is of great significance from both the theory and application viewpoints. Based on the research of concept and attributes of wisdom integration of expert group in War Design Engineering, this paper presents the framework of wisdom integration of expert group in War Design Engineering, and probes into the longitudinal integration of expert wisdom to deal with the perspective dynamic evolvement and the transverse integration of expert wisdom based on the workshop of expert group. The main contents and fruits of this paper are outlined as follows:Firstly, this paper introduces the theoretical system of War Design Engineering, then points out the Meta-synthesis of expert wisdom in five realms is the basis of solving issues in War Design Engineering. Then, the paper presents the concept of wisdom integration of expert group, and makes a thorough analysis on the attributes of wisdom integration of expert group in War Design Engineering and its relationships with data integration, information integration and knowledge integration.Secondly, based on the analysis of the concept about wisdom integration of expert group, the paper puts forward three-dimension framework of wisdom integration of expert group, i.e., organizational dimension, longitudinal dimension and transverse dimension, both the meanings and the relationship of these three dimensions are analyzed in detail. In the analysis of organizational dimension, the significance and competence requirements of expert group in the whole war design are analyzed and the interactive model of multi-realm expert has been brought forward. In the analysis of longitudinal dimension, aiming at the characteristics of perspective dynamic evolvement in the flow of War Design Engineering, the framework of flow analysis of perspective dynamic evolvement oriented has been presented. In the analysis of transverse dimension, the reason for dynamic organization of expert group has been analyzed and the dynamic construction process of expert group also has been brought forward.Thirdly, the longitudinal integration of expert wisdom, which embodied chiefly in the perspective dynamic evolvement in War Design Engineering, has been researched. On the basis of concept and attributes research about perspective dynamic evolvement, the paper puts forward the realization mechanism of perspective dynamic evolvement in wisdom integration of expert group, i.e., task cooperation guarantee and technology realization guarantee of perspective dynamic evolvement. Towards the task cooperation guarantee, the division and cooperation among each realm expert in war design flow have been researched in detail; towards the technological guarantee, the method and process for solving the issues by combining quantitative and qualitative method in the process of wisdom integration of expert group have been investigated detailedly.Fourthly, the transverse integration of expert wisdom, including how to build up a good workshop team dynamically according to the change of discussed target and actualize effective discussion, has been researched. According to the specificity of dynamic construction of expert group, the paper brings forward the appraising meta-model of realm expert and makes a detailed analysis about the construction and appraising methods of index system in appraising meta-model, thereby educes the steps of construction of realm expert group. Furthermore, on the basis of the analysis of current workshop forms, the measurement methods of thought radiation and astringency based on key words in workshop have been given, and the workshop process of realm expert standardization, with the control of thought radiation and astringency as masterstroke, has also been brought forward.Lastly, Taking the analysis of influence of information system towards the campaign competence of submarine as a example, the process of solving issues by combining quantitative and qualitative method in wisdom integration of expert group and the perspective dynamic evolvement based on the basic process of War Design Engineering have been explained. Taking the initial perspective of workshop process of analysis of influence of new information system towards the campaign competence of naval fleet as an example, this paper illuminates the application of the standardization of workshop.更多还原