【作者】 于瑛英；

【导师】 池宏；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 突发事件的频繁出现使得突发事件应急管理逐渐引起社会的广泛关注,在突发事件应急管理体系中,应急预案是其中重要的一部分。应急预案是应对可能发生的突发事件,为保证迅速有效的开展应急救援行动、降低事故损失而制定的有关计划或者方案。当前国家、各级政府部门以及企业等已经制定很多应急预案,但是这些应急预案还存在如下一些问题:可操作性差;各个应对部门之间的领导关系以及行为逻辑顺序不明确;缺乏有效的保障机制;风险分析和脆弱性分析不足;对资源布局的定期评估不足等,这就无法保证应急预案顺利实施并达到预期效果。当前关于应急预案的研究很多,但是对应急预案评估问题的研究相对较少。通过对应急预案评估问题进行研究可以发现应急预案中存在的问题,提高应急预案处置的有效程度,使得应急预案可以更有效的应对突发事件以减少损失,达到制定应急预案的目的。对应急预案进行评估,一方面是对应急预案进行综合评估,另一方面是针对效果不理想的应急预案分析其存在的问题,并针对问题的根源进行有效处理。其中,脆弱性评估和资源布局评估是应急预案评估中的两个重点问题,如果在应急预案制定过程中脆弱性评估不足,则难以找到地区脆弱性所在并加以特殊应对,最终导致因脆弱性较强而损失较大;而在处置过程中出现资源不足或者调度不力等情况则与资源布局关系密切,需要事先确定资源布局并评估其合理性。这两个问题同时也是难点问题,因为影响脆弱性的因素很多,针对不同突发事件,各个地区的脆弱性是不同的;而资源布局的评估效果也与评估的标准相关,不同的评估标准能够得到不同的评估结果。本文主要从以下几个方面开展研究工作:第一,应急预案的评估研究,一方面针对已经制定的应急预案从其实施前后进行分析。在应急预案制定后并未实施时,根据应急预案的制定情况,从其编制原则、构成要素、内容和操作性等角度构建指标体系,对其进行前评估;在应急预案实施后,借鉴项目管理中的后评估理论,建立后评估指标体系对应急预案实施后的情况进行评估,并将前评估和后评估的结果相结合,把应急预案实施中的问题反映到应急预案的制定过程中,实现对应急预案的动态评估,并对应急预案进行及时修正,进而探索一条制定有效应急预案的途径。另一方面,使用网络计划方法来描述应急预案的实施过程,分析操作过程的合理性以及实施过程中可能出现的问题及原因,并在网络计划的基础上分析关键路线。与此同时,针对突发事件处置过程中资源经常无法满足的情况,引进资源保障率的概念,分析资源供给量与需求量的关系,通过研究各个步骤的资源保障率分析应急预案的整体保障情况,以资源保障程度来近似表示对事件的控制程度,近似评估应急预案的有效程度。第二,城市脆弱性的评估研究,脆弱性评估是应急预案编制过程中的重要步骤,在应急预案编制前可以通过脆弱性评估分析地区针对某种突发事件的隐患以及敏感情况,而在编制过程中可以通过脆弱性评估对脆弱性强的地区加强应对措施,保障地区安全。脆弱性是承载体面临突发事件所表现出的抵御能力和应对能力,从承载体的易受攻击程度、敏感程度、应对能力和恢复能力四个方面来分析承载体对突发事件的脆弱性,并以洪水灾害为例,给出较为详细的影响指标,可以为针对各种不同的灾害或者突发事件的脆弱性分析提供参考,并在此基础上,简要提出几种脆弱性评估可用的方法。第三,资源布局的评估研究,由于地区对应急资源的需求可能随时间发生变化,因此在应急预案制定过程中,评估已有资源布局对地区需求的保障程度就显得十分重要。本文从两个方面对已有的资源布局进行评估:一方面评估已有的资源布局是否能够满足时间需求以及数量需求,即在国家规定的时间内,是否所有发生突发事件的地点都能够得到及时救助,并且救助所需的资源数量得到满足,若经常不能满足需求则需要进行调整;另一方面,构造一个基于时间、资源供给和需求的损失函数,用于评估给定资源布局下可能出现的各个级别突发事件对地区造成的损失。在此基础上对损失值较大时的资源布局建立优化模型进行调整。以上两方面评估和调整都考虑到了增加或者减少应急服务点的个数以及增加应急服务点的资源量,是集选址和资源配置于一体的模型。最后还给出了一个针对存在传染效应突发事件的资源布局模型。在论文的最后部分,对以上工作进行总结,并对未来研究进行展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Emergency management has been given wide attention because emergencies appear frequently. Management of emergency plans is one of the most important parts in emergency management system. The emergency plan is a kind of plan or project to deal with possible emergency and develop succor quickly and efficiently to decrease the emergency loss. Nowadays, our country and local governments, even enterprises have made emergency plans. But there are still some problems in emergency plans, such as poor operability, unclear leadership and action sequence, loss of guarantee mechanism, lack of risk and vulnerability evaluation, insufficiency of resource distribution etc. The problems above may cause undesired results. There is much research on emergency plans while research on evaluation of emergency plans is limited. With evaluation of emergency plans, the flaw of emergency plans can be found and corrected to improve the effect. The emergency plans would be evaluated comprehensively and the root of problems can be found. Vulnerability and resource distribution evaluation are important in emergency plans evaluation. Without sufficient vulnerability evaluation, the areas with strong vulnerability would not get special treatment and may cause more losses. Without periodic resource distribution evaluation, the resource supply may not satisfy the demand of emergency. Vulnerability and resource distribution evaluation are also complicated. There are many factors that influence vulnerability and different area has different vulnerability analysis. Besides, as far as the evaluation of resource location and allocation, there are different standards. This dissertation studied three important peoblems.The first problem was the evaluation of emergency plans. On the one hand, a comprehensive index system based on making principles, components, contents and operability to evaluate the efficiency of emergency plans before they are executed was proposed. And another index system based on the past- evaluation theory in project management to evaluate the emergency plans after they are carried into execution was also proposed. The two evaluations can be combined to reflect the problems in the course of execution to the course of making emergency plans. And then this research implements the dynamic evaluation of emergency plans and corrects the emergency plans in time to explore a way to make effective emergency plans. On the other hand, the operation process of emergency plans can be expressed with network. And based on the network, we can analyze the rationality of process and critical path of network. Due to the usual unsatisfied resource demand, the concept of rate of resource guarantee was introduced to analyze the relationship of resource demand and supply. The analysis of effect of emergency plans was based on the rate of resource guarantee of each step. The rate of resource guarantee was used to express the effect of emergency plans approximately.The second problem is evaluation of the city vulnerability. Evaluation of the city vulnerability is an important step in making emergency plans. Making vulnerability evaluation and analyzing the weakness and sensitivity of the region when making emergency plans can enforce the Countermeasures to guarantee the region security. Vulnerability is the resistance of system to emergency or hazard. Vulnerability can be expressed by susceptibility, sensitivity, the capacity to cope and resilience. More detailed index of flood disaster was given to give reference for vulnerability analysis of different kinds of emergencies. Several evaluation methods were also proposed here.The third problem is evaluation of the current resource location and allocation. It is necessary to evaluate the availability of resources based on current resource distribution because resource demand will change along with time. The current distribution can be evaluated from two aspects. On the one hand, the time requirement and quantity requirement should be satisfied. The former means the emergency can get help in the time the government ordered, the latter means the quantity of resource required can arrived in time. If either of the requirements can not be satisfied, the current distribution should be adjusted. On the other hand, a loss function based on time, resource supply and demand was constructed to evaluate the loss under a given resource distribution when different degrees of emergencies would occur. An optimization model was developed to adjust the current resource location and allocation when the loss was not accepted. The way of adjusting the current distribution was adding or closing some facilities and adding resource. The models combined location and allocation. At last, a resource location and allocation model of emergencies with infection was given.At the end of this paper, conclusion and prospect were given.This work was supported by National Science Foundation of China under grant Nos. 70671098 and the Doctoral Student Paper Fund of Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (ZZ0709).更多还原