【作者】 刘华；

【导师】 屠梅曾；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 城市是一个国家或地区经济、社会发展的核心,城市水资源的安全利用对保障整个国家和地区的可持续发展起到至关重要的作用。因此,合理界定和分析城市水资源安全利用问题,提出切合实际的城市水资源安全管理模式具有重要的现实意义。从已有文献来看,国内外学者对水资源问题已经做了大量研究工作,但其研究工作还存在以下几点不足:(1)对于水资源安全的概念没有统一,理论研究和系统评价都没有形成完整的体系,多数研究停留在定性的阶段;(2)关于水资源安全管理研究大多从流域、国家、区域等较为宏观的角度研究水量和水质问题,城市水资源安全研究的较少;从水资源技术,角度研究较多,从市场、经济、管理角度研究的相对较少;(3)在水资源配置方面,一部分是从提高水资源供给效率角度来分析的;另一部分则从提高灌溉效率,机器使用效率等技术角度分析,而从经济角度,经济手段来合理配置水资源,引导产业结构的调整,发展适水型产业的研究相对较少。此外,目前对建立水权交易市场、合理制定水价、水资源贸易、中水回用等问题还有待作进一步的深入研究;(4)在安全评价和安全预警研究中,由于水系统的复杂性和不确定性,权重作为很多方法的难点,包含了极大程度的主观性,对评价和预测城市水资源安全的准确性和客观性提出了极大的挑战。本文以上海市水资源作为研究对象,在查阅国内外大量文献资料、分析国内外水资源安全研究现状的基础上,研究城市水资源安全利用的理论和应用问题,提出城市水资源安全评价、配置和预警方法和城市水资源安全保障政策措施,主要内容包括:1、在现有理论基础和研究成果至上,给出了城市水资源安全利用的定义、内涵、外延和特征,明确指出城市水资源安全利用包括安全评价、安全配置和安全预警三个密不可分的部分。2、建立城市水资源安全评价的PSR概念模型,并在此基础上明确城市水资源安全评价指标体系的基本原则。根据城市水资源的具体情况,基于PSR模型,建立了包括压力指标、状态指标和响应指标在内的水资源安全评价指标体系框架,并且在参考国内外标准和国内相关研究的基础上,提出衡量城市水资源安全状况的评价标准。3、确定“以供定需”的城市水资源安全配置模式,并且在这个模式下,分供给和需求两个方面,对城市水资源进行具体分析,在保证城市居民用水和生态用水的基础上,根据城市供水的实际情况对城市经济用水进行优化配置。4、对城市水资源安全预警的概念及其内容进行研究,给出了城市水资源安全预警实现的步骤和警度、警限等确定原则,并在城市水资源安全评价指标体系的基础上确定城市水资源安全预警的基本框架。5、针对城市水资源安全系统存在的大量随机、模糊和灰色因素,采用集对分析理论对其确定和不确定性进行分析,根据其原理建立了城市水资源安全评价排序模型,并利用集对分析理论对上海市及各区县进行安全排序评价。6、建立水资源需求和供给预测模型,通过分析上海地区产业结构现状和近几年来的用水情况,揭示城市产业结构调整和水资源的关系,运用最优化理论和线性规划法,提出在上海城市水资源可持续利用新模式约束下的产业结构调整分析,对优化配置上海水资源提出建设性意见7、探讨基于统计学习理论的支持向量机方法,并将其模式分类算法应用于城市水资源安全预警,构建了基于支持向量机的城市水资源安全预警模型,并利用这个模型对上海市进行安全预警分析。8、在对建立城市水市场体系的分析中,将水权及水交易市场作为合理配置水资源的有效途径和手段,提出水权转让制度的建设框架,并用实例分析水权转让制度和水交易市场优化配置水资源的过程。9、从循环经济的角度出发,提出推行城市中水回用系统,使污水资源化。中水虽然不能饮用,但可以替代自来水作为工业和生活等低质用水,从而改变城市水资源短缺的局面,缓解城市用水的供需矛盾,达到污水资源化。目前,在我国推行中水回用,还有一系列的制约因素,本文也通过分析目前国内外现状提出相应的措施。通过以上研究,本文的创新点可归纳为如下几个方面:1、提出了基于PSR模型的适应于城市水资源安全利用评价指标体系,并利用集对分析的方法,规避指标权重的估算的难点问题,建立城市水资源安全评价排序模型,并利用此方法对上海市及下属区县进行安全评价排序分析。2、通过研究国内外城市水资源可持续利用需求和供给管理模式,提出了基于可持续理论的水资源可持续利用发展新模式。通过研究,将水资源需求划分为居民生活、生态需水和经济需水三个子系统,并将经济需水划分为第一、第二、第三产业三个二级子系统,并对未来15年上海地区的水资源需求和供给量进行预测。3、将支持向量机的方法运用于城市水资源安全预警领域,解决了在神经网络方法中无法避免的局部极值问题和传统神经网络拓扑结构需要经验试凑的问题,建立基于支持向量机的城市水资源安全预警模型,并运用此模型对上海市水资源安全进行预警分析。随着经济全球化、资源利用全球化以及生态环境问题全球化,水资源作为一种战略资源,其可持续利用的问题显得日益突出。上海作为我国重要的经济中心,其水质性缺水问题对整个城市经济发展有着“牵一发而动全身”的影响。上海的水资源安全利用问题应该引起全国水资源专家、研究学者和政府官员的足够重视。希望本文能够对此有微薄的贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cities are the core of regional economy and social development. Therefore, the sustainable exploitation of urban water resources plays a vital part in the sustainable development of a country and a region. It is of practical significance to study on the issue of sustainable exploitation of urban water resources and to work out a feasible and effective mode of how to sustain exploit water resources.Up to now, both domestic and foreign scholars have made a lot of research on water resource management, but there exists the following shortcomings . First, the conception of the security of water resources hasn’t been decided. There isn’t integrated theoretical research and evaluation of the security of water resources. Most of the research is qualitative not quantitative analysis. Second, they paid less attention to the case analysis on urban water resources management. Most foreign scholars focused on the research of water quantity and quality from a macro point of view of a watershed, a country, a region, even the globe. In China, more attention was paid to cultivation techniques, water engineering techniques while less attention was paid to urban water resource management from the angle of market, economics and management. Third, most research has been made on increasing water supply efficiency and the efficiency of water utilization from the angle of technologies, not from the angle of economics. Less research has been made on the development of water worthy industries by restructuring industries based on the proper allocation of water resources. In addition, further research need to be made in our country on the establishment of water swap market, the reasonable structuring of water prices, the virtual water trade and the utilization of intermediate water. Forth, because of the complication and uncertainty, much subjective analysis is added in the decision of index, which is a great challenge to the veracity and objectivity in evaluating and forecasting the security of urban water resources.Taking water resources of Shanghai city as the case, this paper studies theoretical and applied problems of using water resources for Shanghai city on the base of collection much correlative research fruits and researching water security status in nation and outdoor. A model in appraising, assigning and alarming the security of water security is put forward on for water resources. The main results and conclusions are as follows:1. On the base of theoretical research up to now, this paper gives out the definition and characteristics of water security of urban water resources. Security appraise, assigning and alarming are three main parts included in it.2. A Pressure-State-Response notional model on water security index assessment is set up. On the base of the model, the urban water security notional model, which concludes pressure indexes, state indexes and response indexes, is also set up. Then the basic principle of establishing assessment system is set down.3. By using the method of single gene index, comprehensive pollution index and value accounting method, this paper evaluates the water quality around Shanghai predicts the development trend. According to the investigation statistics, this paper indicates that water contamination of the mainstreams of Shanghai belongs to organic pollution. Through the comprehensive appraisal of Shanghai’s rivers, the water quality of Shanghai is ranked as the fourth or fifth level, far below the required second or third level. The quality of its inner river water was threatening. Water from the upper reach of HuangPu River is increasingly worsening. Thanks to the great amount of waterfall, the water quality of Yangtze River is relatively good. But if it wants to be utilized fully, a lot of irrigation engineering projects need to be built.4. The definition and content of precaution theory are introduced. The method, alarming boundary, alarming degree is presented. An alarming of water security is carried out on base of water security assessment index system of urban water resources.5. On the base of referring much criterion and correlative research, assessment standard that scales the status of water security is put forward. The much of uncertain factor in water resource system is analyzed with Set Pair Analysis (SPA). An assessment model is established on base of SPA theory on Shanghai city and the districts belong to Shanghai.6. Through research on sustainable water demand and supply management, this paper tries to establish a model regarding the forecast of water demand and supply . By analyzing the status quo of the industry structure of urban areas of Shanghai and water consumption situation, this paper posts the relationship between the adjustment of urban industry structure and water resources. And put forward a feasible industry structure adjustment mode subject to the sustainable utilization mode by using the optimal theory and linear programming method. What’s more, the paper puts forward some constructive proposals to the optimized allocation of Shanghai water resources.7. Support-vector-machine, which based on statistical learning theory is applied to water security research in this paper. A alarming model on water security of urban water resources is set up according tis function of learning from data.8. When analyzing the possibilities of establishing an urban water swap market, this paper puts up a frame in building a system in transferring water rights by means of reasonably allocating water resources through the proper use of water rights and water swap market.9. From the view of circling economy, this paper proposes the extend use of intermediate water. Although the intermediate water is not drinkable, it can be used as a lower level water in industry and daily consumption, hence, it can not only ease up the water shortage tension but balance the demand and supply of urban water resources to realize the reuse of wastewater.Based on the results of the above mentioned research, the innovative points of this dissertation can be summed up as follows:1. An index model system of urban water security on the base of Pressure-State-Response model is set up in this paper. The Set Pair Analysis model, which can avoiding the difficulty in assessing the index, is applied in urban water resources assessment model.2. This paper puts forward a new model for sustainable utilization of water resources based on the theory of sustainable development. Through the study of systematic dynamics, water resources can be divided into three subsidiaries: water for residential purpose, for ecological purpose and for economic purpose. In addition, economic used water can be divided into three subsidiaries: primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry. And forecast on the supply and demand of water resources in the next fifteen years.3. Support-vector-machine, which based on statistical learning theory is applied to water security research. With the globalization of economy, the globalization of resources and the globalization of ecological environment, the sustainable utilization of water resources becomes more and more important. Since Shanghai is one of the economic centers in China, the issue of water safety should therefore command the great attention of the whole country. And I sincerely hope that this paper will contribute a bit to this aim.更多还原