【作者】 邱竞；

【导师】 高德步；

【作者基本信息】 中国人民大学 ， 经济史， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 转变增长方式是发展经济学中的一个命题,其基本思想是,将经济发展看作一个从低级向高级演进的过程,不同阶段都有与之相适应的增长方式,因此经济发展向高级阶段的跨越必然意味着增长方式的转变。可见,与主流经济学偏重于投入产出的直接数量关系而忽略生产过程不同,该理论试图从生产组织形式和经济行为模式的角度来审视经济增长。因而“经济增长方式”这一用语在西方经济学文献中并不多见,最早出现在霍利斯·钱纳里(Hollis Chenery)的论文“工业化和经济增长的比较研究”中。但它在20世纪60年代引入中国后,却得到了国内学术界的广泛认可,并被赋予了两层含义:一是计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型;二是发展模式由粗放型向集约型转变。显然上述界定具有明显的时代特征,这是因为增长方式本身是一个动态的概念,没有固定的内涵,只有将其置于特定历史情境下讨论才有意义,不同时期所对应的最优增长方式是不同的。因此,转变增长方式包含两种情况,一种是在同一历史情境下,以最优增长方式为目标进行调整;另一种是当历史情境发生改变时,最优增长方式相应地作出转变。在北京的经济发展历程中,这两种含义的转变都曾出现过,例如,改革开放前后的经济体制转型就属于后一种情况;而改革开放以来的经济结构调整则属于前一种情况。由于历史情境变化缓慢,且中国采取的又是渐进式改革,所以这两种划分并不是绝对的,它们通常处于共存状态。但是无论哪一种意义的转变,都必须尊重所处的历史情境,只有选择与之相匹配的方式,才能实现快速、稳定、持续的经济增长目标。然而,历史情境是一个包罗万象的抽象概念,难以直接作为转变增长方式的参照依据。那么如何使其具有可操作性呢?本文给出的解决方案是,将历史情境具体化为增长约束,通过分析增长约束及其变化,来确定转变增长方式的方向。对于北京而言,当前面临的主要约束来自四个方面,即资源环境、人口、生产率和发展失衡。其中,资源环境属于硬约束,难以通过转移或贸易分工来消除,这就要求选取注重资源节约和环境保护的增长方式;人口压力是城市化进程中不可避免的问题,这不仅要求发展资本密集型、技术密集型产业或进行产业升级以减少劳动力需求,还需要从城市规划和区域平衡的角度来考虑人口疏散;生产率瓶颈是由于资本高度集聚而缺乏产业支撑,不能有效的转化为生产力所造成的;区域发展失衡则不利于产业的梯度转移,从而影响了核心城市的产业升级和竞争力的提升,同时由于差距过大,难以形成有效的区域分工或协作,因而也不利于经济的持续发展。通过对增长约束的分析发现,所有问题最终都可以归结在两个层面上来解决,即产业和区域。因此,本文就从产业演进和区域平衡发展的角度出发,来讨论北京增长方式的转变。对于产业演进而言,主要从循环经济、全球价值链和比较优势三个方面进行了论述;对于区域平衡发展而言,主要以首都圈为基础,结合北京的城市功能定位和首都圈的发展特点,探讨了区域分工和一体化的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Changing the way of economic growth is a subject in developing economics, and its basic idea is that economic development is a progress from low level to high level with according way of economic growth at each level. Thus, the development from low level to high level definitely means changing of the way of economic growth. Different from mainstream economics, which puts stress on the proportion between input and output and ignores manufacture progress, this theory attempts to take a look at economic growth in the aspects of manufacture organizing way and economic behavioral pattern. Therefore, the term of“the way of economic growth”is rarely used in western reference documents, and originally appeared in the thesis of Hollis Chenery titled“comparing research between industrialization and economic growth”. When it was introduced to China in 1960s, this term was widely accepted and granted with a double meaning: first is transition from planned economic system to market economic system; second is changing of developing pattern from extensive type to intensive type. Obviously, the definition above was greatly influenced by that times as way of economic growth is a dynamic conception with no fixed meaning. Thus, it was meaningful to discuss only put to a certain history background, and the best way of economic growth is different for different periods. The way of economic growth includes the following two cases: one is making adjustment with aim of best way of economic growth in the same history background; the other is changing the previous best way of economic growth accordingly with the changing of history background. Both ways of economic growth were used in the economic development of Beijing. For example, changing of economic system just before and Chinese reformation is the latter case, but the adjustment of economic structure from great development brought by reformation is the former case. As the history background took a long time to change, and Chinese reformation is a gradual progress, the two kind of division is not absolute, and they often exist with each other. No matter which way of economic growth, China must take the current history background into consideration, and as long as we choose the right way, we can achieve the aim of fast, stable and continuous development. However, history background is a comprehensive and comprehensive conception, and it is difficult to make any transformation according to history background directly. Then how to make it operative? This thesis would give a solution. As history background would restrict economic growth, I want to find out the development direction of transformation of economic growth pattern by analyzing restrictions and how do they vary. As to Beijing, the four restrictive factors come from such four aspects as resource environment, population, productivity and imbalance of development. Among the four aspects, resource environment is the rigid restriction, and it is hard to eliminate by transferring and labor division of trade. Thus, it is requested to select the growth way which emphasizes on economizing resource and environment protection. Population stress is the unavoidable problem in any city development, which not only requires developing capital-intensive industry and technology-intensive industry, making industry upgrade so as to reduce the need fro work labor, but also requires us to consider about population evacuation in the aspect of city planning and regional balance. Productivity bottleneck is due to capital intension and lack of industry support,which could not invert to productive force. Imbalance development between regions is harmful to industry gradient transferring, which furthermore influence the industry upgrade and enhancement of competition of the most important cities. Meanwhile, because of enlarging gap, it is difficult to make an efficient regional labor division and cooperation, both of which are harmful to constant economy development. After analyzing growth restriction, I find all of these problems could finally be resolved by settling down such two aspects as industry and region. Thus, my thesis will talk about the changing of way of economic growth in Beijing in the aspect of industry evolvement and balanceable development. As to industry evolvement, I take three aspects of circulating economy, global value string and comparative advantage into discussion. As to balance development between regions, I take Beijing’s business as a discussion base, and would consider about city function orientation and features of development of Beijing business so as to discuss the problem of regional labor division and integration.更多还原