【作者】 高咏玲；

【导师】 杨浩；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,我国越来越多的城市开始规划和筹建轨道交通项目。城市轨道交通投资规模巨大且运营费用昂贵,建设过度超前,将不能保证其经济合理性,增加还贷与运营补贴压力。建设滞后的城市轨道交通提供的运输服务错过最佳需求期,不能满足城市发展的需求。因此,研究城市轨道交通建设时机的理论与方法可为城市轨道交通发展规划的制定与实施提供理论依据。首先,分析城市轨道交通投资的特征与延迟投资期权,运用几何布朗运动来描述城市轨道交通项目投资的不确定性因素,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数。第二,运用熵权法与系统科学理论判断建设时机的类型,建立城市公交客流影响因素分析的改进灰色一致关联分析模型,以北京为例进行实证分析。第三,考虑投资的归属公平性、项目实施的运营与网络结构效果、TOD发展模式的实施条件对城市轨道交通项目进行综合评价,以确定城市轨道交通项目的建设时序。第四,运用实物期权方法建立城市轨道交通项目的缓解拥堵投资机会价值分析模型与建设时机选择的随机变量模型。本论文的主要创新性成果如下:1.运用几何布朗运动来描述城市轨道交通项目投资的不确定性因素包括客流与建设成本等,刻画这些因素随时间发展的规律性与随机性,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数,以揭示推迟投资对于项目运营收入和建设成本预测值的影响,为把握建设时机影响下不确定性因素的发展规律,提供理论依据。2.从城市交通基础设施供需规模发展的协调性角度,采用熵权法分析城市交通需求,运用系统科学理论分析城市交通基础设施规模与城市交通需求的演化,较客观地评价超前型、同步型或滞后型三种建设时机及其相互转化的形态。提出城市公共交通需求影响因素的改进灰色一致关联分析方法,与已有研究相比,考虑影响因素变化率的差异,更易于识别影响公共交通需求增长和变化的负相关因素,同时,通过定义排序结果的差异度选择时间序列长度,提高了分析结果的可靠性和稳定性。3.分析轨道交通与道路交通投资公平性的区别,提出轨道交通投资的公平性程度不仅取决于是否能让大多数人受益(使用公平性),还要考虑到城市中低收入群体对于轨道交通票价的承受能力(归属公平性)。从归属公平性、TOD模式的实施条件、运营与网络结构效果三方面构建城市轨道交通项目建设时序的评价指标体系,体现项目运营者和使用者对票价的目标差异,能够较全面、科学地反映轨道交通项目的实施条件。4.建立基于人口规模的城市轨道交通投资的缓解拥堵机会价值分析模型。与已往的研究相比,该模型考虑票价对于城市轨道交通使用者出行费用的影响,反映了有无轨道交通项目情况下人均拥堵成本的变化,有助于分析人口增长率、项目建成后人口规模、轨道交通使用者出行费用的变化占收入比例、社会折现率与项目建成时间五个因素的变化对于投资决策的影响。5.建立城市轨道交通项目建设时机选择的实物期权随机变量模型。该模型将投资价值最大化的目标分为三种:经营型价值,经营型与直接引导型价值(以货币形式计量的社会经济效益),经营型与引导型价值(考虑土地规划引导作用的投资前景值),运用建设时机影响函数、蒙特卡洛模拟与OptQuest优化技术分别求解这三种目标下的最优建设时机,反映社会效益对于建设时机的影响,为有针对性地选择城市轨道交通项目的发展策略提供依据。算例分析表明,考虑城市轨道交通项目建设的社会效益(直接引导型价值)与单纯考虑项目的经济效益(经营型价值)的最佳建设时机的计算结果不同。更多还原

【Abstract】 A growing numbers of cities in China are planning and preparing to construct rail transit projects which need large scale investment and high operation cost in recent years. Premature construction might lead rail transit projects to low utilization rate which is unreasonable from the economic angle and increase pressures of paying loan and operation subsidy. However, rail transit projects miss the best demand period and cannot meet the demand of city development in the case of constructing too late. Therefore, this dissertation studied theory and methodology of construction timing for rail transit projects, which lays a theoretical foundation for rail transit development planning and decision-making.Firstly, the characteristics of rail transit investment and option to defer investment were analyzed. The geometric brownian motion was used to describe the uncertainty factors of rail transit investment and deduce the influence functions of construction timing. Secondly, the entropy method and system theory were applied to confirm the construction timing type in Beijing. The improved grey uniform analysis (IGUA) was built up to analyze factors affecting transit ridership in Beijing. Thirdly, the construction consequence was evaluated from the aspects of operation and network structure effects, land use situation of transit oriented development (TOD) and ascription equity. Finally, the construction timing theoretic model to ease congestion based on real option was set up. The stochastic variable model based on real option was built up to calculate the optimal construction timing for rail transit projects.The following are the main innovations of this dissertation:1. The geometric brownian motion was used to describe uncertainty factors of rail transit investment including passenger flow and construction cost etc., which reflect the regularity and randomness of uncertainty factors with the time. The influence functions of construction timing of the uncertainty factors were deduced to reveal the influence of deferring investment on the forecast values of operation revenue and construction cost, which provide the basis for analyzing the development law of the uncertainty factors affected by the construction timing.2. The traffic demand was analyzed by the entropy method. The system theory was used to describe evolution of transport infrastructure supply and traffic demand. From the point of coordinated development, the construction timing type including leading, synchronization delay and their mutual transformation forms was evaluated more objectively. Compared with the previous studies, the IGUA considers the differences in change rate and identifies negative correlation between transit ridership and its affecting factors more easily. The difference degree of ranking results was defined in IGUA to determine the length of time series which improves the reliability and stability of analysis results.3. The difference between rail transit investment equity and road investment equity was analyzed. Use equity and ascription equity were defined and given to evaluate equity of rail transit investment. Use equity refers to the benefits of rail transit projects should be shared by the majority. Ascription equity means ticket price should consider the affordability of the middle and low income people in city. The evaluation indices system of construction sequence of rail transit projects were analyzed from the aspects of operation and network structure effects, land use situation of TOD and ascription equity, which embodies different attitudes of operators and passengers towards ticket price of rail transit projects and reflects implementation conditions more comprehensively and objectively.4. The invest opportunity value model of rail transit projects aiming to ease congestion based on population scale was set up. Compared with the previous studies, the model reflects the changes in congestion cost and travel cost after construction. The model analyzes the influence of five uncertainty factors on the invest decision of rail transit projects. They are population growth rate, population scale after construction, social discount rate, time after construction and proportion of travel cost change by rail transit to income.5. The stochastic variable model of construction timing selection of rail transit projects based on real option was built up. The model consists of three maximization goals: operational value, operational value and direct guidable value calculated in the monetary terms, and operational value and guidable value calculated by prospect theory. The influence functions of construction timing, Monte Carlo simulation and OptQuest were used to determine the optimal construction timing which reflects the influence of social benefit on optimal construction timing and provides the basis for selecting the corresponding development strategy of rail transit projects.更多还原