【作者】 岳仁田；

【导师】 王成彪； 罗云；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 安全工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 随着航空运输的高速发展,流量管理在民航安全中的地位日益突显。本文主要讨论了空中交通流量管理系统危机管理问题,在深入分析欧美日空中流量管理系统与我国流量管理系统的基础上,构建了适合我国的协同流量管理危机处置系统。本文的主要工作有:1.结合灰色预测理论、BP神经网络、RBF神经网络建立相应的危机预测模型;探讨了多层次综合评价的原理和方法;引入风险预警管理理论和CDM协同决策理论丰富了危机管理的理论体系。2.对空管事故的成因进行了系统分析,深入研究了空中交通流量管理系统中的危机问题,结合欧美先进流量管理系统的经验,提出了我国协同流量管理系统中通用危机问题处理方法,采用IDEF系统分析方法,对危机问题的处理过程进行了系统地分析和建模,优化了危机处置的工作流程,并定义了流程各个阶段的数据。3.利用时隙分配算法与时隙压缩算法对我国空中交通流量管理系统危机处置算法进行构建,设计出算法中的输入输出参数,分析了算法中的航班时间数据并给出其变更规律。4.结合欧美经验,建立了我国空中交通流量管理系统危机管理系统性能指标体系,分析了该指标体系的层次结构,给出了每个监控领域和监控元素的含义,并给出了空中交通拥挤判断指标及应用。5.在对危机问题进行分析和理论研究的基础上,给出了我国空中交通流量管理危机处置的整体解决方案,具体包括流量管理中组织结构的设计、机构内部席位的设计、危机问题相应的解决方案和规划,并结合项目研究的实际,进行了危机管理系统的开发。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the great development of aviation transportation, flow management becomes more and more important in the field of aviation safety. The paper mainly discussed the crisis management problem in the air traffic flow management system. Based on the analysis of the air traffic management system home and abroad, we construct the crisis management system for the collaborative flow management system in our country.The main work of this thesis are:Combining with the grey forecasting theory, BP Neural Net and RBF Neural Net, we set up the crisis forecasting model and probe into the theory and method for the multilayer integrated evaluation. The theory system of the crisis management was enriched by introduced the risk forecast and alarm management theory and the collaborative decision making theory.The cause of the air traffic accident and the crisis problem of the air traffic flow management system were analyzed. Combining with the experience of the developed countries in the flow management system, we put forward the universal crisis management method for the collaborative traffic flow management system. The IDEF system analysis method has been used and the management process for the crisis problem has been analyzed and modeled systemic. The work flow for the crisis management has been optimized and the data of the each flow phase has been defined.The algorithm for the crisis management in the air traffic flow management system was designed used by the slot allocation algorithm and the slot compression algorithm, and the input and output parameters for the algorithms were designed. The changing rule of the flight time data in the algorithm was analyzed thoroughly. Based on the principle of the design, combined with the experience from the developed countries, we set up the performance index system for the crisis management system in the air traffic flow management system. The hiberarchy of the index system was analyzed, and the meanings of each supervise field and supervise factor have been put forward. The judging index for the air traffic congestion and its application were put up.On the basis of the analysis of the crisis problem and the study of the theory, we put up the resolving scheme for the crisis management in the air traffic flow management system, which including: the design of the organization structure for the flow management, the plan of the organization inner seat and the solving scheme and program for the crisis problem. Integrated with the practice of the project, we developed the program for the crisis management system.更多还原