【作者】 闫杰；

【导师】 朱美玲；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 政府外债是一把双刃剑:运用得当,可引进先进管理经验、技术和设备,促进经济发展;运用不当,则难以达到预期效益,并导致地方财政风险。本研究在分析相关文献的基础上,以财政学、计量经济学、区域经济学等学科理论为指导,采用实证分析与规范分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合、静态分析与动态分析相结合、宏观分析与微观分析相结合,及因子分析等研究方法,全面分析新疆政府外债财政风险现状及成因,并据此提出风险控制体系。本研究包括三部分:即理论分析部分、现状分析部分、解决问题部分。第一部分进行理论分析,包括第一、二章。主要从理论上界定政府外债财政风险的概念,即利用政府外债中,受各种不确定性因素的影响,使得债务人不能如约偿债而给财政带来压力的可能性。而且,政府外债财政风险具有客观性、社会性、非均衡性、传导性、隐蔽性等特征。其后,分析国内外在(政府)外债方面的相关研究成果。第二部分进行现状分析,包括第三章至第五章。首先,分析新疆政府外债利用状况及新疆政府外债财政风险的具体表现,即未来各种可测及不可测的债务压力不仅影响财政支出规模和结构,而且影响财政职能的充分发挥,并将风险向上级政府传导;其次,利用10个具体指标,构建地方政府外债财政风险评价指标体系,并结合运用因子分析法,对已利用过政府外债的新疆各地州、各县市的风险状况进行评价并排序;最后,从内源、外源、管理、政策等方面对上述风险状况的成因进行剖析,说明风险成因的复杂性。第三部分是解决问题,即第六章。主要针对风险成因,提出新疆政府外债财政风险控制体系,具体包括完善法律法规体系和预算管理体系,重构市场经济条件下的规范的公共财政体制,建立科学、民主的决策机制,提升组织管理水平和完善项目资金运作机制,建立积极稳妥的债务清偿机制。通过全方位、多层次的控制策略,确保新疆政府外债项目取得预期收益,财政风险降至最低水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Governmental external debt is a double-edged sword. Used properly, it can introduce advanced management experience, technology and equipment, and promote economic development; but used improperly, it may be difficult to achieve the anticipated economic benefits, and lead to local fiscal risks.On the basis of analysing the related documents, under the guidance of theory such as public finance, econometrics, regional economics, and adopting some analysis methods such as empirical and normative analysis methods, qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, static and dynamic analysis methods, macro and micro analysis methods, and factor analysis method, the study has a comprehensive analysis of the status and causes of fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts in Xinjiang, and proposes risk control system.This study comprises three parts: theoretical analysis, status analysis and problem solving.The first part is the theoretical analysis, including chapter 1 and 2. This part theoretically defines the concept of the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts, which is the possibility of the fiscal pressure resulting from expenditure growth because the debtors subject to a variety of uncertainties can not pay off the governmental external debts. Moreover, the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts have some characteristics such as objectivity, sociality, non-equilibrium, conductivity, and concealment. Subsequently, this part analyzes the relevant documents on domestic and (governmental) external debts.The second part is the status analysis, including chapter 3 to 5. Firstly, this part analyzes the utilization of the governmental external debts in Xinjiang, and analyzes the specific performance of the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts in Xinjiang, that is, the future various measurable and unmeasurable debt pressures, not only affect the size and structure of fiscal expenditure, but also play the full impact of fiscal functions, and transmit the risk to their superiors; Secondly, using 10 specific indexes, this part builds the evaluation index system of the local fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts, and combined with the use of factor analysis method, the part evaluates and sorts the risk status of all the districts and counties which have been using the governmental external debts. Finally, this part explains the complexity of risk causes by analyzing the endogenous factors, the exogenous factors, the management factors and policy factors.The third part is chapter 6,that is to solve the problems. Aiming at the risk causes, the chapter mainly puts forward the system of controlling the fiscal risks resulting from governmental external debts, including perfecting the laws and regulations system and improving the budget management system, reconstructing the normative public finance system under the conditions of market economy, establishing the scientific and democratic decision mechanism, enhancing the organizational management level and improving the projects and funds’operation mechanism, building the positive and secure debt settlement mechanism. Only through multi-directional and multi-level control strategy, can projects using governmental external debts achieve expected benefits, can the fiscal risks down to the lowest level.更多还原