中国汇率政策研究

【作者】 张鹏；

【导师】 何剑；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 长期以来，我国对于国民经济开放部分的调控并没有形成强有力的调控手段，对于外部经济环境的改善主要依靠国内经济政策措施来实现。这种调控方式，不仅使政策的成本大大增加，导致市场发生新的扭曲，而且也致使主要的政策目标发生偏离，或者其实施受到严重的制掣，令人关注的是，这—现象在当前的经济环境中表现的越来越突出。我国经济进入了典型的高速增长阶段的繁荣期，固定资产投资增长过快、外汇储备总量过大和粮食、石油等原料价格上涨成为制约经济进一步发展的重要隐忧。由于问题集中且结构复杂，仅仅依靠原有的政策调整已显得成本过于高昂和乏力了。这种政策调控中的困境说明，随着我国经济规模的扩张、市场经济体制的完善和经济自由度的不断增大，原有的以内部经济政策来同时调整国民经济达到内部均衡和外部均衡的政策体系设计已经在逐步的失效，新的且能够直接以经济外部均衡为调控目标的政策手段的引入便显得亟为迫切和必要，而汇率政策则是发达市场经济国家对经济外部均衡进行调整的直接而有效的手段。从中国汇率问题的历史来看，长期以来，中国一直处于有制度无政策的状况。所谓有制度是指中国在不同的时期都存在执行不同的汇率管理的基本原则和方针，如解放初期的对卢布的固定汇率制度、60年代以后对美元的固定汇率制度、80年代计划和市场汇率并存的双轨汇率制度以及1994年以后形成的“有管理的浮动汇率”制度等等。所谓无政策是指在基本制度约束的前提下，中国的汇率始终没有形成富有弹性的调控措施体系，如在1997年以后形成的超稳定的人民币汇率结构，无论中国国内经济的发展情况如何，也无论其主要的钉住国家美国的经济发展形式如何，央行始终保持名义汇率的异常稳定，而放弃了对经济进行有效外部调整并进行有效政策搭配的调控措施的使用。这种“跛行”的汇率安排随着中国经济规模的扩张和国际影响力的扩大，带来的问题和风险将逐步的加大，甚至将拖累整个国民经济，因此，构筑具有中国特色的人民币汇率政策体系并将其作为国家宏观经济调控手段的重要组成部分是具有重大而深远的意义的。所谓的汇率政策其含义是：一国外汇主管当局或货币当局为实现其预定的宏观经济目标，对汇率的定价水平、波动幅度、锚货币构成和干预方式等实施调节和控制的具体措施。本文以“中国汇率政策研究”为题目，其核心有两点，第一点是汇率政策，第二点则是建构。从汇率政策而言，汇率政策的实施现状、汇率政策的环境与形成基础、汇率政策的目标、汇率政策的政策手段等是汇率政策研究的最主要内容。而对于建构来说，则主要包括汇率政策目标的选择、汇率政策措施和手段的构成及实施效果、汇率政策措施手段的组合以及汇率政策与其他宏观经济政策的搭配等内容。本文在论述中，将两者予以结合并进行联合讨论，既突出汇率政策和建构各自内容的独立性，又将其作用和效果相融合，以求建立理论上和实践上都能具有较高价值的中国汇率政策构成方案。本文在研究结构上共分为四个主要部分，即理论及思想基础、现象的分析和总结、对象的构成及分析、实践意义及其前景分析。这四个主要部分之间存在层层递进的关系，前—个部分的讨论是后一部分研究分析和拓展的基础。以此为条件，本文将文章的整体框架分解为四个组成部分，即：第一部分，理论及思想基础部分，具体包括第1章和第2章；第二部分，现象分析和总结部分，具体包括文章第3章的主要内容；第三部分，研究对象构成及分析部分，具体包括第4章和第5章的内容；第四部分，实践意义及前景分析部分，具体包括第6章和第7章的内容。第一部分：理论及思想基础部分1．第1章：导论。在本章中主要对全文的总体框架和研究结构与方法进行讨论与分析，其中重点讨论了影响本文的重要概念及其涵义，对于本文的总体研究方法在思想、结构和论证上进行总结，并对本文的创新和不足之处进行了自查和总结。2．第2章：理论研究综述。在本章中对本文所依靠的重要理论基础进行总结和分析，将整体理论研究分为四个主要部分，即汇率制度理论、货币危机理论、发展中国家汇率决定理论、开放经济下宏观经济政策冲突与协调理论。从汇率制度理论来看，文中主要分析了马克思关于汇率制度的论述、西方汇率制度理论以及其自身内容的新发展等方面的内容；从货币危机理论来看，本文对马克思的货币危机理论、西方货币危机理论(三代货币危机理论)、货币危机的传染效应、货币危机与银行危机的共生性研究等方面的内容进行了总结；在发展中国家汇率决定理论中，本文主要对爱德华兹(E.Edwards)的汇率均衡模型进行了总结和分析；在开放经济下宏观政策冲突及协调理论中，文章主要总结和概括了米德冲突、丁伯根原则、斯旺曲线、蒙代尔“政策分派”理论和克鲁格曼“不可能三角”等内容。上述理论的综述和总结，基本上满足了本文在分析和研究中的需要，并成为本文创新的有效基础。第二部分：现象分析和总结部分第二部分的内容主要是指第3章论述的内容。在该章中，系统概括并阐述了人民币汇率及汇率政策的基础与现状，对汇率制度等环境因素进行了分析。从内容来看，可以分为三个主要部分，即人民币汇率的形成基础、人民币汇率的运行环境(汇率制度)、人民币汇率形成机制及问题。在人民币汇率的形成基础中，既对传统的形成基础研究进行了概括，在系统经济学理论的指导下，分析了实体经济系统(购买力)和金融经济系统(利率)的作用和影响，又形成了本文的重要创新点，人民币汇率孤波现象，提出了人民币汇率形成的新思想；在人民币汇率的运行环境中，总结性的分析了人民币汇率制度的演变、现行汇率制度的特点和现行汇率制度的缺陷等内容；而在人民币汇率的形成机制部分，则客观分析了现行人民币汇率形成机制及其主要内容。从分析的效果看，能够为本文的下一步研究提供充分而有效的局限条件。第三部分：研究对象构成及分析部分1．第4章：中国汇率政策的目标选择。在本章的研究中，主要将汇率政策的目标划分为最终目标和中间目标，并分别展开分析。在汇率政策最终目标的分析中，较为系统的概括和研究了汇率政策最终目标的五个选择，即汇率稳定目标、汇率中性目标、促进出口目标、吸引外资目标和均衡汇率目标，并在结合中国国情的基础上，选定了汇率稳定目标是中国现阶段最有可能确立的汇率政策实际目标，并将其假定为本文以后分析和讨论的实现目标。在汇率政策的中间目标研究中，根据国际经济和金融经济学、国际经济学的重要理论结论，选择了外汇储备、外汇占款、货币供应量、通货膨胀率和相对利率水平来作为中国汇率政策的中间目标，并将中间目标相互间的影响及其与最终目标之间的关系进行了整合研究。2．第5章：中国汇率政策措施的构成。本章首先分析和总结了汇率政策的直接措施和间接措施的构成与实施效力，分别分析了汇率升值措施、汇率贬值措施、利率调整措施、外汇管制措施、公开市场操作措施、汇率波动幅度措施和锚货币组成调整措施等内容。以此为基础，在系统经济学等理论的指导下，本文对上述汇率政策措施的影响进行了整合，并提出汇率政策措施的搭配规划。第四部分：实践意义及前景分析部分1．第6章：中国汇率政策与财政及货币政策的搭配与运作。在本章中，主要讨论了汇率政策与货币政策和财政政策的搭配的基本框架和理论原则，并在此基础上，整体上分析和研究了三种重要宏观经济政策的总体搭配原则。在其中，财政政策与汇率政策的搭配以及适合中国国情的三种宏观经济政策的总体搭配研究都构成本文重要的创新。2．第7章：中国汇率政策发展的若干问题。在本章中，本文对中国汇率政策在决定和影响因素变化的情况下的自身改革和发展情况进行了总结和分析。汇率政策的决定和影响因素主要包括人民币长期均衡汇率的测算、中国金融改革、中国对外贸易战略调整、汇率制度转型四项内容。其中，人民币长期均衡汇率测算为中国汇率政策调整的基本方向提供了目标；中国金融改革，尤其是资本账户开放的改革为中国汇率政策的实施带来了新的风险和挑战；中国的外贸战略调整，为汇率政策的运作带来了新的问题；中国汇率制度转型，为汇率政策提供了新的运作环境、约束条件和控制措施。本章在结合前文分析内容的情况下，对上述因素的影响进行了动态研究和分析。从文章的整体上看，研究的创新主要体现在以下三个方面，即研究对象的创新、研究内容的创新和研究方法的创新。具体是指：一、研究对象的创新金融是现代经济的核心和血脉，而汇率则是国家间金融联系的桥梁和纽带，在经济日趋全球化的今天，汇率的重要性更显得突出，因此，对汇率研究的文献便浩如烟海。但从国内的研究情况来看，几乎全部的研究都集中在汇率制度的研究上，对于承载汇率制度的汇率政策体系，要么—笔带过，要么就干脆予以忽略。而在宏观经济层面，作为调整中国外部均衡的重要政策手段却一直空缺。这种研究中和实践中的关键空白既是本文选题的原因，也成为本文研究对象的重要创新所在。二、研究内容的创新研究内容的创新主要体现在以下4个部分。1．较系统地提出了人民币的汇率孤波思想。本文结合现代物理学色散理论和孤子理论，提出了人民币汇率孤波的思想，这种思想的提出既为汇率研究提供了一个新的视角和模型，也为国际上和国内对于人民币超稳定结构的政府管制效应提供了一种新的解释框架。2．较系统的提出了中国汇率政策的最终目标选择体系和中间目标构成体系，并确立了目标成立和设置的基本原则和思想，在结合中国实际的基础上，分析了中间目标间的相互影响，以及中间目标对最终目标的整合影响。3．较系统的分析了财政政策与汇率政策的搭配问题，对财政政策、货币政策与汇率政策的总体搭配方法和原则进行了讨论，提出了相关原则和方案，并对中国以汇率稳定为目标的汇率政策下的措施组合进行了研究。4．将资本项目开放下的信贷风险、货币风险、道德风险进行整合分析，并提出了该情况下总体风险的综合表现模型及风险演进。三、研究方法的创新1．政策研究框架的创新。从国内传统的政策研究框架来看，—般按政策的基础、政策的现状、政策的内容、政策的影响四个方面进行设计分析，这种研究与实际缺乏结合性，在逻辑性上也有欠缺，往往只是对既往实际情况的总结，而缺乏前瞻性和独立性。本文对政策的研究采用了政策环境与基础、政策的双层目标设计、政策措施与手段、政策搭配与措施组合的分析框架，有效地避免了上述研究中的不足。2．方法组合的创新。本文将数理经济学、数量经济学、物理学、系统经济学、科学哲学的研究方法予以组合，对假定的宏观经济变量的参数都进行了必要的估定，突破了现有研究中逻辑与实践相分离的缺陷。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since long ago, our country has not formed the powerful regulative method regarding the regulation of opening part in national economy, and improved the external economy environment mainly depending on the domestic economic policy measure. This regulative way, not only increases the policy cost greatly, causes the market to have the new distortion, but also makes the main policy goal deviated or makes its implementation receive the serious system brake. What need to be paid attention is that this tendency presents more and more prominently in the current economic environment.Our country economy enters a prosperous time of the high-speed gowth stage, the investment in the fixed assets grows excessively, the total quantity of foreign exchange reservation oversized and raw material such as grain and petroleum rises in price, which become the important concealed worry to restrict economy further development. Because the question is centered and the structure is complicated, it appears that the cost is too high and weak merely depending upon the original policy adjustment. This kind of policy regulation dilemma shows that, along with the expansion of our country economical scale, the perfection of the market economy system and the increase of the freedom degree of economy unceasingly, original policy system design that simultaneously adjusts the national economy by the internal economy policy to achieve the interior balance and exterior balance is already in the gradually expiration, so it is essential and urgent to introduce new policy method, which can take the economy exterior balance as the regulative goal directly, while the exchange rate policy is the direct and the effective method to adjust the economy exterior balance in the developed market economy country.From the point of history question of the Chinese exchange rate, since long ago China has been in the stage that has the system but non-policy. So-called has the system is refers to China has executed different basic principle and the policy of the exchange rate management in the different time, such as the ruble fixed rate of exchange system in the early days of liberation, the US dollar fixed rate of exchange system in the later 1960s, the two-track exchange rate system in which to, the plan and the market exchange rate coexist in the1980s, "have the management floating exchange rate" system formed after 1994 and so on. So-called non-policy is refers to that under the premise of basic system restraint, China’s exchange rate has not yet formed the rich elastically regulative measure system. Take the super-stable Renminbi exchange rate structure formed after 1997 for an example, regardless of how Chinese domestic economy developed, and also regardless of how is the economical development form of the main nailed country US, the central bank has been maintaining the nominal exchange rate stable exceptionally, but gave up carrying on to the economy effective exterior adjustments and using the regulative measures of the matched effective policy. This "limps" exchange rate arrangement leads to gradually enlarging questions and risks along with the expansion of the Chinese economical scale and the international influence, even will implicate the entire national economy. Therefore, it is of great and profound significance to construct Renminbi exchange rate policy system with Chinese characteristic and take it as the important constituent of the national macroscopic economy regulation method.The meaning of so-called exchange rate policy is: the specific measures of adjustments and controls used by a country foreign exchange executive authority or the currency authority to exchange rate fixed price level, margin of fluctuation, constitution of anchor currency, intervention way and so on currency for achieving its predetermined macroscopic economic goal. This article takes "The research on constructing the Chinese exchange rate policy" as a topic, and has two cores, the first is the exchange rate policy, the second is the construction. From the point of exchange rate policy, the present implementation situation, the environment and the form foundation, the goal, the policy method of the exchange rate policy and so on are the main coverage of exchange rate policy research. While regarding construction, it mainly includes the choice of the exchange rate policy goal, the constitution and the implementation effect of the exchange rate, the combination of the exchange rate policy measures and method, as well as the exchange rate policy matches with other macroeconomic policies. This article unifies and discusses the both, not only prominent the content independence of the exchange rate policy and constructs respectively, but also fuses its function and the effect, in order to establish the Chinese exchange rate policy constitution plan with high value in theoretically and practically.This article is divided into four main parts in the research structure, namely theory and thought foundation, phenomenon analysis and summary, object constitution and analysis, practice significance and its prospect analysis. There exists layer upon layer relations between these four main parts, the preceding partial discussions are the foundations on which the latter part of research analyzes and develops. Take this as the condition, this article divides the overall frame into four constituents, namely: The first part, the theory and the thought foundation including 1st chapter and the 2nd chapter specifically; The second part, the phenomenon analysis and the summary including the 3rd chapter specifically; The third part, the constitution of study object and the analysis including the 4th and the 5th chapter specifically; The fourth part, the practice significance and the prospect analysis including 6th chapter and the 7th chapter specifically.The first part: Theory and Thought Foundation1. The 1st chapter: Introduction. this chapter mainly discusses and analyzes the full text overall frame and the research structure and method, in which with emphasis discusses the important concept and implication which influences this article, summarizes overall research technique of this article in the thought, structure and the proof, and self-examines and summarizes the innovation and the deficiency of this article.2. The 2nd chapter: Theory research summary. This chapter summarizes and analyzes the important theory basis upon which this article depends, divides the overall theory research into the four main parts, namely exchange rate system theory, currency crisis theory, the exchange rate decision theory of developing nations, the macroeconomic policy conflict and coordinated theory under open economy. Conceming the exchange rate system theory, this article mainly analyzes Marx’s elaboration about the exchange rate system, western exchange rate system theory as well as new development of its content and so on; Conceming the currency crisis theory, this article summarizes the Marx’s currency crisis theory, the western currency crisis theory (three generation of currency crisis theory), the infection effect of currency crisis, the coexist of the currency crisis and the bank crisis and so on; Concerning the exchange rate decision theory of developing nations, this article mainly summarizes and analyzes Edwards’s (E. Edwards) the exchange rate balanced model; Concerning the macroscopic policy conflict and coordinated theory under open economy, the article mainly summarizes Meader Conflict, Ding Burgon principle, the Siwan curve, Mondale "the policy distribution" theory and Crue Gehman "the impossible triangle" and so on. The above theory summary basically satisfies the need of analysis and research in this article, and becomes the effective foundation of innovations of this article.The Second part: Phenomenon Analysis and SummaryThe second part mainly refers to the 3rd chapter. This chapter systematically summarizes and elaborates the foundation and the present situation of Renminbi exchange rate and the exchange rate policy, analyzes environmental factors such as exchange rate system. This chapter can be divided into three main parts, namely the formation foundation, movement environment (exchange rate system), the formation mechanism and questions of Renminbi exchange rate. In the formation foundation of Renminbi exchange rate, this part not only summarizes the traditional research formation foundation,, but also analyzes the function and the influence of the entity economical system (purchasing power) and the financial economical system (interest rate) under the guide of system economic theory, which forms the important innovation spot of this article-the solitary wave phenomenon of Renminbi exchange rate, and proposes new thought of the Renminbi exchange rate forms; Conceming the movement environment of Renminbi exchange rate, this chapter generally analyzes the evolution, characteristics and dificency of Renminbi exchange rate system and so on; while concerning the formation mechanism of Renminbi exchange rate, this chapter objectively analyzes the mechanism and its main content of present Renminbi exchange rate formed mechanism. From the point of analysis effect, it can provide full and effective limitation condition for the next research of this article.The third part: Constitution of Object Study and Analysis1. The 4th chapter: The target selection and establishment of Chinese exchange rate policy. This chapter mainly divides the exchange rate policy goal into the ultimate objective and the intermediate objective, and launches the analysis separately. In the analysis of exchange rate policy ultimate objective, systematically summarizes and studies the five choices of the exchange rate policy ultimate objective, namely the stabilization of exchange rate goal, the exchange rate neutral goal, the export promotion goal, the attraction of foreign capital goal and the balanced exchange rate goal, and in the foundation of unifying the Chinese national condition, chooses the stabilization of exchange rate goal as the exchange rate policy actual target which is likely to be established in Chinese present stage, and hypothesis it as the realization goal later analyzed and discussed in this article. In the research of the exchange rate policy intermediate objective, according to the important theory conclusions of the international economics and the financial economics, the international economics, this chapter chooses the foreign exchange reserve, the foreign exchange occupied-funds, the money supply, the inflation rate and the relative interest rate level as the intermediate objective of the Chinese exchange rate policy, and has carried on the integrated research on mutually influence of the intermediate objectives and its relations with the ultimate objective.2. The 5th chapter: The constitution and operation of Chinese exchange rate policy and measures. This chapter first analyzes and summarizes the constitution and the implementation potency of the direct measure and the indirect measure of the exchange rate policy, and analyzes the exchange rate revaluation measure, exchange rate depreciation measure, rate adjustment measure, foreign exchange control measure, open market operation measure, exchange rate margin of fluctuation measure, composition adjustment measure of anchor currency respectively. Take this as the foundation, under the guide of system economics, this article integrates the influence of above exchange rate measures, and proposes the matching plan of exchange rate policy and measures.The Fourth part: Practice Significance and Prospect Analysis1. The 6th chapter, matching and operation plan of Chinese macroeconomic policy. This chapter mainly discusses the basic flame and the theory principle which the exchange rate policy and the monetary policy and the financial policy match, and under this foundation, analyzes and studies the overall matching principle of three kind of important macroeconomic policy. Among which, the financial policy and the exchange rate policy match, and the overall matching principle of three kind of important macroeconomic policy adapted to the Chinese national condition all constitute the important innovations of this article.2. The 7th chapter: The study and analysis of Chinese exchange rate policy development. This chapter summarizes and analyzes own reform and development situation of the Chinese exchange rate policy in the changing of decisive and influential factor situation. The decisive and influential factors of the exchange rate policy mainly include the survey and calculation of Renminbi long-term balanced exchange rate, the Chinese finance reform, the Chinese foreign trade strategy adjustment, and the exchange rate system reform. Among them, the survey and calculation of Renminbi long-term balanced exchange rate provided the goal for the basic direction of Chinese exchange rate policy adjustment; The Chinese finance reform, especially the capital aec, ount opens brings the new risks and the challenges for the Chinese exchange rate policy implementation; China’s foreign trade strategy adjustment brings new questions for operation of exchange rate system; Chinese exchange rate system reforming provides the new operation environment, the constraint condition and the control measures for the exchange rate policy. This chapter conducts the dynamic research and analysis to the influence of above factors in the condition of unifying the above analysis content in the article.From the whole article, the research innovations mainly are following three aspects, namely innovation of study object, research content innovation and research technique innovation. Concretely it refers:PartⅠ: The innovation of study objectFinance is the core and the blood vessels of modern economy, while the exchange rate is the bridge and the link of the financial relation between countries, whose importance appears more prominent in economical globaliTation today; therefore, there are voluminous literature conceming exchange rate research. In the domestic research, the nearly complete research concentrate in the exchange rate system, whereas overlooks or simply gives to neglect conceming the exchange rate policy system bearing exchange rate system. But in the macroscopic economical level, the important policy and method adjusting exterior balance of China are continuously vacant. That this kind of essential blank in research and practice is not only a reason for the topic of this article, also becomes the important innovation of study object of this article.PartⅡ: The innovation of research contentThe innovation of research content mainly includes following 4 parts.1. Systematically proposes the Renminbi exchange rate solitary wave thought. This article proposes the Renminbi exchange rate solitary wave thought unifying the modern physics dispersion theory and the orphan theory. The proposal of this thought not only provides a new angle of view and model for the exchange rate research, also provides one kind of new explanation frame regarding the government regulation effect of the Renminbi super-stable structure on international and domestic.2. Systematically proposes the ultimate objective choice system and the intermediate objective constitution system of Chinese exchange rate policy, and establishes the basic principle and thought of goal establishment and setup. In the foundation of unifying Chinese actual, it analyzes mutual influence between the intermediate objective, as well as the integrated influence affected by intermediate objective on ultimate objective.3. Systematically analyzes the matching of the financial policy and the exchange rate policy, to the financial policy, discusses the overall matching method and principle of the monetary policy and the exchange rate policy, proposes the related principle and plan, and conducted the research to the combination of policy and measure of Chinese exchange rate policy taking rate stabilization as the goal.4. Wholly analyzes the credit risk, the currency risk, the moral risk under the opens of the capital project, and proposes the overall performance model and the risk evolution in this situation.PartⅢ: The innovation of research technique1. The innovation of policy research frame. The domestic traditional policy research frame generally design analysis according to the policy foundation, the policy present situation, the policy content, and the policy influence. This kind of research lacks the unifying with practice, also short of the logic, often merely summarizes the former actual situation, while lacks foresightedness and independence. This article uses analysis flame of the policy environment and foundation, the policy double-decked goal design, the policy measures and method, the policy matches with the measure combination, effectively avoids insufficiency in the above research.2. The innovation of method combination. This article combines the research technique of mathematical economics, quantity economics, the physics, the system economics, the scientific philosophy, carries on the essential estimation to the hypothesis macroscopic economical variable parameter, and breaks through the flaw of the separation of the logic and the practice in the existing research.更多还原