网络经济技术创新与扩散效应研究

【作者】 苏惠香；

【导师】 杜两省；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 过去十年中，网络经济的蓬勃兴起彻底地改变了传统的经济架构，它所带来的一系列新特征，使国民经济的各个方面正面临严峻的变革。传统的经济理论认为经济持续增长与通货膨胀是紧密相联的。经验上看，如果失业率低于5.5％—6％，经济增长率超过2％—3％时，就会出现交替现象。然而，美国20世纪90年代的经济增长过程打破了这种经典理论的预言，成功地实现了高经济增长与低通货膨胀并存的梦想。国内外相关研究的大多数学者认为美国经济增长的主要因素是网络经济下信息技术的创新促进企业的产生，新企业的“群聚”促成了信息产业的兴起，而美国过去几十年服务业的蓬勃发展又为信息产业的发展铺平了道路，资本市场的创新以及政府的关注进一步加速了信息产业的发展，而信息产业所表现出来的经济增长动力支持了“新经济”的诞生，也即网络经济下的信息技术创新与扩散创造了美国高经济增长与低通货膨胀并存的奇迹。在此前提下，研究网络经济下中国信息技术创新与扩散对中国经济的影响效应问题就显得格外重要。综观人类历史上曾经经历的农业革命、工业革命和正在经历的网络经济革命，这三次创新浪潮都通过改变社会的生产方式与交换方式极大的推动了社会的发展和文明的进化，其中网络经济革命通过以网络形式重新构建社会的生产和交换方式，极大的影响了国民经济各部门。从宏观上看，网络经济对就业和产出产生重大影响，改变传统菲利普斯曲线的形态，拉动了国民经济的持续增长。从产业发展来看，与网络经济相关的网络产业蓬勃发展，既包括网络贸易、网络银行、网络教育、网络企业以及其他商务性网络活动，又包括网络基础设施、网络设备和产品以及各种网络服务的建设、生产和提供等经济活动。从企业营销、制造、居民消费与投资的微观层面看，通过建立大型的网络虚拟市场，彻底改变传统企业和居民的交易行为方式。网络经济不是单纯的技术现象，也不是单纯的经济现象，而是技术—经济范式更替的产物。并且与前两次创新浪潮相比，网络经济创新浪潮具有更强、更剧烈的扩散性和渗透性，其对国民经济影响的深度和广度都是前两次创新所不具备的，从而具有更明显的经济范式变革的特征。本文的主题是论述网络经济技术创新与扩散对我国经济增长和就业产生的重大影响。本论文采用的研究方法是数理分析和实证研究相结合的方法，并且以计量研究为主。全文分七章。第一章导论是本文以后各章研究的基础。本章首先介绍了本文的研究背景和意义；其次对网络经济国内外相关研究进行了综合述评，并确立了本论文的研究框架、思路和方法。最后，指出本文的创新点。第二章首先对网络经济的概念进行界定，并指出网络经济的本质是重大技术创新引起的经济范式的变革。然后对网络经济的新特征作了归纳总结，指出了网络经济的发展规律，提出了网络倍增效应下的网络经济性，并重点对网络外部经济性效应进行微观分析和案例实证，验证了网络直接外部经济性效应和间接外部经济性效应，最后分析了网络经济对传统经济理论构成的冲击。第三章重点分析网络经济创新浪潮作用于国民经济的内在机理。本章从熊彼特的创新理论入手，指出创新对经济的影响表现在把一种从未有过的关于生产要素和生产条件的“新组合”引入生产体系，打破经济的循环流转，引发产业革命。然后根据弗里曼为代表的“新熊彼特学派”进一步将技术创新分为渐进型、突进型、技术系统变革和技术—经济范式更替等四类，进一步说明网络经济的本质是重大技术创新引起的经济范式的变革。并延续这一主题，根据罗默和卢卡斯的新增长理论中的技术内生和人力资本内生指出技术知识不仅形成自身的递增效应，而且能够渗透于资本和劳动力等生产要素，从而使整个经济的规模收益递增，指出技术创新与扩散是经济增长的源泉。进而着重从微观上研究了技术创新的扩散过程，发现技术创新的扩散规律。沿着技术创新这条主线，指出经典理论的分析立足于一般意义上的创新，网络经济创新浪潮除了具有一般意义上创新的共性外，还具有非常明显的个性。因此，要分析网络经济对国民经济影响的内在机理必须结合网络经济时代创新的特点。接着沿用创新的分析框架，指出了网络经济创新浪潮是以知识为资源的创新，网络经济时代创新的主导产品是数字产品和互联网，并对数字产品的定价和所具有的特殊成本结构以及所处的市场性质进行微观分析，为网络经济的主导产业作进一步铺垫。网络经济时代的主导产业是信息技术产业，信息技术产业具有产业相关性、非竞争性和潜在需求性三大特点，这也是技术创新引发产业革命的前提条件，进而分析了信息技术产业的经济效应特征，并进一步重点分析信息技术扩散的技术溢出效应，由此得出网络经济创新最大的特点是其极强的扩散性和渗透性引发的交易范式变革，从而大大降低国民经济运行成本。这是网络经济时代生产方式和交换方式产生重大影响的内在根源。因此，网络经济对经济的影响在本质上表现为技术—经济范式的变革，在现象上表现为产业结构的调整或产业革命。根据技术演进的特点，网络经济对国民经济影响将分别从创新的形成和创新的扩散两方面论述。本论文将主要研究创新的形成与扩散过程对经济在宏观方面的影响，主要体现对总产出和就业的直接影响，并重点研究创新的扩散对国民经济的影响。创新的形成对经济的影响表现为信息技术的创新是否创造了大量就业机会，信息技术产业的产生和发展是否成为推动GDP增长的主要力量之一。创新的扩散对经济的影响表现为信息技术的扩散是否导致劳动生产率和全要素生产率的增长，信息技术的扩散是否导致对劳动力需求结构的变动，是增加就业效应还是减少就业效应。本章的研究是下面几章从数量上研究网络经济技术创新与扩散对我国经济增长和就业产生重大影响的理论基础。第四章重点从数量上研究网络经济信息技术创新对经济增长的影响效应。本章利用1983—2005年信息技术产业的数据与同期的我国GDP数据来研究信息技术产业与经济增长的关系。本章首先计算了在此期间我国信息技术产业对名义GDP、对名义GDP增长、对实际GDP和实际GDP增长的贡献，并发现不论是用哪一种方法，我国信息技术产业对经济增长的贡献都呈现阶段性和滞后性，同时发现信息技术产业对实际GDP增长的贡献剔除了通货膨胀的影响，更能真实的反映经济的波动情况，这也为后面进一步研究信息技术产业与经济增长的关系时数据的选定奠定了理论基础。其次，运用这一期间信息技术产业的实际产值和实际GDP数据进行格兰杰因果关系检验，发现信息技术对总产出的影响具有滞后性，滞后期为4年。最后，在前一分析基础上，运用这一期间信息技术产业的实际产值和实际GDP数据进行单因素OLS回归分析，得出了信息技术滞后4年的数据对GDP的影响弹性为0.38，并计算出在此期间的信息技术创新产出效应，这是本文的创新点之一。第五章采用数理分析和实证研究相结合的方法利用多因素来研究信息技术扩散对经济增长的影响效应问题。在论述的过程中，本章以宏观经济理论为研究起点，以内生经济增长理论的分析思想和方法为研究主线，对内生经济增长问题进行了系统的研究。该研究对于我们正确认识我国经济增长的质量和效益，对于政府部门科学合理地制定经济发展政策和进行宏观调控，对于保持我国国民经济的持续、快速和健康发展都具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本章首先介绍网络经济技术创新的扩散对总产出影响的过程；其次介绍网络经济生产率增长的特点，并进一步对网络经济技术创新对传统三次产业的扩散效应进行分析，并且归纳总结了网络经济信息技术对生产率贡献的经验研究；最后，对信息技术对经济增长的影响效应进行计量研究。在这一部分，首先介绍内生经济增长理论中的基本概念；其次，介绍经济增长要素贡献份额的传统测算方法，并对该方法进行简要的评价；接着提出我国经济增长决定因素及其贡献的新测算方法，并提出两种计量模型，这也是本文的理论创新之一。本文认为，生产过程中技术水平的变化不仅以投入要素为载体，通过投入要素生产率的变化这一可观测和可度量的指标表示出来，还可通过独立投入要素进入生产函数，尤其是对于象信息技术这样的技术。鉴于这一考虑，本章构造了反映信息技术进步的新型生产函数。在该函数中，产出不仅与资本、劳动、人力资本各要素投入量有关，而且与信息技术生产率有关。最后，运用所建立的两种生产函数，利用1983—2005年的各投入要素的实际数据运用经济计量软件EVIEW5.0进行OLS回归分析测算，并通过比较分析，发现了我国经济增长路径，计算出了我国信息技术对经济增长的扩散效应，发现了信息技术扩散对经济增长贡献的特点。这也是本论文的创新点之一。第六章首先对网络经济中技术创新的形成对劳动力市场的影响进行理论分析，说明信息技术创新的形成对劳动就业是增加效应，其次，对信息技术创新的扩散对劳动力市场的影响进行理论分析，说明信息技术创新的扩散对劳动就业有增加效应，也有减少效应，并进行具体分析。第三，又进一步对信息技术进步在三次产业的应用和渗透方式和特点进行分析，进而得出信息技术进步下三次产业就业量的变动趋势。在此基础上进一步研究人力资本投资下的信息技术进步就业效应，并从微观上进行分析。第四，对人力资本投资下的信息技术进步就业效应进行数量建模分析。这一部分是在第五章建立的经济增长模型二的基础上，通过变换，建立了劳动就业增长模型。这是本文的又一个创新点。本章认为，劳动就业增长不仅与宏观经济、一般资本投入有关，而且也与信息技术和人力资本投资等其他因素有关。本章重点研究信息技术增长对就业增长的贡献，并发现了信息技术增长对就业增长贡献的特点，信息化程度低时，信息技术对就业呈现减少效应，当信息化程度高时，信息技术对就业将呈现增加效应，并通过对该增长模型中信息技术就业弹性的分析，计算出了信息技术就业效应。这是本论文的又一创新点之一。最后，本章从另一个角度，通过资本劳动比的数量分析来研究人均信息技术对劳动就业的影响，进而发现了我国信息技术发展路径，信息技术扩散初期，信息技术表现为资本密集型(就业减少型)技术，随着信息技术的普及，信息技术表现为劳动密集型(就业增加型)技术，并验证了我国的信息化程度。这是本文的又一个创新点。第七章在前面各章分析的基础上，得出本论文总的结论和政策含义。本章共得出如下结论，一是我国网络经济技术创新产出效应存在时滞问题，时滞为4年；二是我国网络经济技术扩散产出效应也呈现出阶段性特点，信息化程度越高，技术扩散效应越小；三是我国信息技术对经济既有替代效应又有溢出效应；四是我国的经济增长仍然是粗放型的经济增长模式；五是网络经济下，技术进步与人力资本共同作用推动经济增长；六是我国信息产业发展路径，在1983—1994年走的是一条资本深化的道路，在1995—2005年有所改善，不是资本深化的主要原因；七是我国网络经济技术创新与扩散就业效应呈现出先是减少效应后是增加效应；八是网络经济下，我国信息技术对经济增长和就业呈现出一定的创新与扩散效应，在未来，我国也能实现经济高速增长和低失业率的双赢局面。本文分析了经济增长中各要素所扮演的角色，研究了经济增长的方式，为我国政府制定科技政策提供了新的视角，并针对不同阶段、不同形式的增长及增长机制，提出了政府应该采取的相应的经济政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 In past ten years, the traditional economy structure has completely been changed by the fast developing network economy .The new characteristics of network economy bring a deeply innovation to the present economy in many fields. The persistence economic growth is always set relation to the inflation in the tradition economic theory. From the experience ,If the unemployment rate is less than 5.5-6%,and the economic growth rate is more than 2-3%,The alternation phenomena will be occurred. However, The process of the American economic growth in the 90’s has broken the surra theory forecast. Successfully realize the high economic growth and the lower inflation. The most of scholars who researched this problem related to this paper thought the main factors of the American economic growth is the information technology innovation results in the new enterprises, the multitudinous new enterprises result in the spring up information industry. The flourish Service ministry, the innovation of the capital market and the attention of the government all accelerate the developing of the information industry. The impetus of the economic growth presented by the information industry supports the "new economy". The innovation and diffusion of the information technology in the network economy result in the phenomenon of the high economic growth and the lower inflation in the same time. Under the precondition, It is very important to research the Chinese economic effect influenced by the innovation and diffusion of the information technology in china.Take a comprehensive view of the human history, the agriculture revolution, industrial revolution and the network economy revolution in processing. These three innovations push forward the development of the society and civilization by the ways of changing the production and exchange. Among them the economic revolution of network affect greatly each section of national economy by setting up a new the production and society. From the Macro-economy, the network economy have greatly affected the employment and overall production and resulted in the continuous development of national economy, as well as changed the appearance of traditional Phillips curve. From the view of industry, the booming industry relating to the network economy have many aspects ,including the network trade, network bank, network education, network enterprises and other commercial network activities ,as well as the foundation of network facilities and network equipments and products, the foundation of all kinds of network service, manufacturing and supporting activities. From the Micro-economy to analyses the marketing, manufacturing, consumption and investment, the network will thoroughly change the transaction behaviors of the traditional enterprises and residents. Network economy is the product of the technology-the shift of economy pattern rather than the simple technique phenomenon or economy phenomenon. Compared with the previous two innovations, it’s more diffusive and penetrable, and has more profound and widely affected the national economy, which makes it characterized the more obvious economy innovations. The theme of the paper is to discuss the influence of the innovation and diffusion of the information technology in network economy on economic growth and employment in national economy.The dissertation studies the issues by mathematical analyses and positive study, And the mathematical analysis is the main method.This dissertation divided into seven chapters. Chapter One serves as a base for the following chapters. First, It reveals the background and the meaning of the topic studied in this paper. Second, it introduces the basic research status at which related to this issue abroad and interior and its commented briefly. Then, establish the paper’s research frame, train of thoughts, and method. Last the dissertation puts forward its innovative points and points out the problems which need further studies.Chapter Two First introduces the basic concepts of the network economy. And point out the essence of the network economy is the technology-economy innovations occurred by technology innovation. Then summing up the new characters of the network economy. Point out the law of the network economy. Put forward the economic character of the network under the double economic effect, And emphasized the microanalyses and case demonstration, validated the direct extra- economic character of the network and the indirect extra- economic character of the network. Finally, Analyses the influence of the network economy on the traditional economics theory.Chapter Three mainly analyses the immanence reason in which the network economy innovation acts on the national economy. This chapter is first from the corner of the Joseph Alois Schumpeter’s innovation theory. He pointed out that the influence on economy by the innovation is that there is a new combination about the productivity factors and condition in the production system. It broke the economy circulation, resulted in industry revolution. Then the technology innovation is divided into four classes: tardiness, onrush, the innovation of the technology system, and technology-the shift of economy pattern by the representative of the new Schumpeter school sect C.Freeman. This further explained that the essence of the network economy is the technology-economy innovations occurred by important technology innovation. And along this theme, based on the endogenous economic growth theory by Romer, Paul M. and Lucas, Robert E,Jr. further pointed out that the technology knowledge not only form the increasing effect itself, but also penetrate the productivity factors such as capital and labor. All result in the whole economy scale increasing. So the headspring of the economic growth is the innovation and penetration of technology. Next it mainly analyses the process of the technology penetration from the microeconomics. Find the law of the technology penetration. Along this view of the technology innovation, pointed out the analyses in traditional theory is based on the normal technology innovation. The technology innovation in the network not only has the commonness of the technology innovation, but also has its individuality. So analyses on the immanence reason in which the network economy innovation acts on the national economy must combine the innovation characters of the network economy. We also use the innovation frame, further pointed out that the innovation of the network economy is the innovation which resource is knowledge, which main product is digital product, which main industry is information industry. And in order to research the information industry, This paper further analyses the price and the market structure of the digital product from the microeconomics. The information industry possesses three characters: industry relativity, uncompetition, and the latency demand, this is also the precondition under which technology innovation result in the industry revolution. Based on this, going on to analyses the economic effects of the information industry, and mainly analyses the overflow effect, so we find the most characters is the trade innovation caused by the diffusion and penetrability of information technology innovation in the network economy. It reduces the running cost of the national economy. This is an immanence foundation stone influence production manner and trade manner in the network economy. Therefore, the influence inbeing of the network economy on the national economy is the technology-economy innovations. The influence phenomenon of the network economy on the national economy is production structure adjusting or production revolution. Basing on the characteristic of technology variance, the influence of the network economy on the national economy will be discussed from two aspects: technology innovation and technology diffusion. The paper will mainly deal with the influence of the innovation and diffusion of the information technology on macro-economy: economic growth and employment, especially the influence of the technology diffusion. Can the influence of the technology innovation on economy create a lot of employment chance? Can the information industry become an important power to accelerate economic growth? Can the influence of the technology diffusion on economy result in the productivity and TFP increasing? Can the information technology diffusion result in alteration of the labor demand structure? Is the information technology increase the employment chance or decrease it? This chapter is the theory foundation of the following chapters deal with this problem in mathematics means.Chapter Four mainly deals with the influence effect of the information technology innovation on economic growth. This chapter deals with the relationship of the information technology and economic growth with the date from 1983 to 2005. First, this chapter calculated the contribution of the information technology to nominal GDP, nominal GDP growth, practical GDP, practical GDP growth during this times, found that the contribution of the information technology to economic growth have staging and hysteresis no matter what method we used. As the same time, we also found that the contribution of the information technology to practical GDP growth is more reflect the fluctuating saturation of the economy than others, because it eliminated the inflation. This is the theory foundation of the data selection in the following dealing with the relationship of the information technology and economic growth. Second, By the Granger Causality Tests using the actual data, we also found the contribution of the information technology to economic growth have hysteresis, the lag is 4 years. Finally, basing on the front analyses, we further did the OLS analyses, found the contribution elasticity is 0.38,when the lag is 4 years, and calculated the output effects of the information technology innovation, which is one of the innovative points of this dissertation.Chapter Five mainly deals with the influence effect of the information technology on economic growth from the view of many factors by mathematical analyses and positive study. In the discussion, its starting point is the introduction of macroeconomic theories, and its main line is the analyzing of approaches and methods of endogenous economic growth, thus forming a profound and systematic research into the issue of endogenous economic growth. The study can help us recognize correctly the quality and efficiency of our country’s economic growth and help the government officials to make economic growth policies scientifically and conduct effective macroeconomic control. This is of great theoretical and practical values in keeping the national economy developing in a sustainable, rapid and healthy way. This chapter first introduced the influence process of the information technology diffusion on economic growth. Then analyses the characters of productivity increasing in the network economy. And further deal with the information technology diffusion effects on the traditional three times industry. And sum up the experience disquisition about the contribution of the information technology to productivity. Last study the information technology diffusion effects on economic growth in mathematical analyses. In this section, first introduce the basic conceptions of endogenous economic growth. Second introduced the traditional method of measuring the contribution of the input factors and commented briefly its validity. Then pointed out the decisive factors influence our economic growth and the measuring method, put forward two kinds of mathematical modes, which is also one of the theoretical innovative points of this dissertation. This paper thought not only to present observable indicators which reflect technological progress, but also technological progress is built on input factors and is reflected through the change of productivity. Especially like the information technology. Because of this, this chapter constructs ingeniously a production function in which reflects the concrete meaning of information technological progress. In this function, the output change is closely related not only with the quantitative change of input factors such as capital, labor, manpower capital but also with the productivity of the information technology. Finally, based on the two production function, using the actual data from 1983 to 2005 and the software 5.0 and OLS measured method, this paper found the route of the economic growth in our country. And calculated the information technology diffusion effects on economic growth. And also found the characters of the contribution of the information technology diffusion on our country economic growth, which is also one of the innovative points of this dissertation.Chapter Six first analyses the influence effect of the information technology innovation on labor market from the theory. And pointed out the influence effect of the information technology innovation on employment is increasing effect. Second, analyses the influence effect of the information technology diffusion on labor market from the theory. And put forward the influence effect of the information technology diffusion on employment has not only increasing effect but also decreasing effect. Third, further analyses the different pervasion manner and characters to the three times industry. And pointed out the employment trend in the three times industry. Then further deal with the employment effect of the information technology under the manpower capital investment, and analyses from the microeconomics. Fourth, deals with the influence effect of the information technology on employment under the manpower capital investment by mathematical analyses and positive study. The employment increasing mode in this section is built by changing the economic growth mode two built in chapter five, which is the fourth innovative points of this dissertation. This chapter thought the employment increasing is not only relation to the macro-economy, normal capital but also relation to other factors such as the information technology and the manpower capital investment. This chapter mainly deal with the contribution of the information technology on employment increasing, and found the characters of the contribution: when the degree of the information technology modernization is lower, The information technology employment effect is decreasing effect, when the degree of the information technology modernization is upper, The information technology employment effect is increasing effect, which is also one of the innovative points of this dissertation. Finally, this chapter deals with the information technology employment effect again by the ratio of the capital to the labor. Found the route of the information technology developing in our country. And put forward that at the beginning of the information technology diffusion, the information technology is a capital denseness technology, with the popularization of the information technology, the information technology became a labor denseness technology, and validate the degree of information technology modernization in our country, which is another innovative points of this dissertation.Chapter Seven brings forward the whole conclusion and policy implication basing on the front chapters. One is the output increasing effect of the technology innovation in the network economy has time lag, the time lag is 4 years. Two is the output increasing effect of the technology diffusion in the network economy has staging. The higher degree of the information technology modernization, the less diffusion effect . Three is the influence effect of the information technology on economy not only has substitute effect but also has overflow effects. Four is the economic growth style in our country is still extensive. Five is the impulse of the economic growth are the information technology and manpower capital investment in the network economy. Six is the route of the information technology developing in our country is capital deepen during the times from 1983 to 1994,but it ameliorate during the times from 1995 to 2005, It is not the main causation of the capital deepen. Seven is the information technology employment effect first is decreasing effect later is increasing effect. Eight is the information technology has a certain innovation and diffusion effect on economic growth and employment, in the future, we can realize the higher economic growth and lower unemployment rate. This papers analyses the play of all the factors in the economic growth, deals with the manners. Provide a new view for the government to make science policy. And to different stage, different modality growth and growth mechanism, bring forward the economic policy corresponding to it for the government.更多还原