浙江农村相对贫困：演变趋势、结构特征及影响因素

【作者】 张清霞；

【导师】 卫龙宝；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 人类历史是贫困与财富共生的历史，但随着社会生产力的发展和人类创造物质财富能力的不断增强，普遍性的绝对贫困将逐渐演变为部分人的相对贫困，相对贫困将逐渐取代绝对贫困而成为社会关注的焦点。发达国家的贫困实践早已证实了这一点。对于转型期的中国，虽然绝对贫困依然存在，但其发生率已经很低，而且主要集中在中西部和少数民族地区，相反，随着人均收入水平的提高和收入分配不平等的加剧，相对贫困问题却越来越突出，并引起了社会各界的关注。而作为经济增长最快，农村居民人均收入水平最高，并且第一个进入上中等国家行列的浙江，经济的持续增长在基本消除绝对贫困的同时，也带来了农村居民收入差距的不断扩大，特别是农村居民内部贫富两极的相对运动及其加剧，使其相对贫困问题日益凸现和严重，既对社会经济运行造成一定的负面影响，也威胁到和谐社会的构建和新农村建设。因此，研究浙江农村相对贫困，掌握其外在表现，探讨其发生和演变的内在机理和规律，既可对有效治理相对贫困问题提供一定的理论和现实依据，而且还可以为预见不发达地区相对贫困的未来走势和有效防治提供一定的借鉴意义，并最终促进农村以及全国经济和社会的健康持续发展。本文利用浙江省农村固定观察点1993—2006年的跟踪调查数据，运用世界银行DAD软件和Logit以及Probit等计量模型，以演进为脉络，从经济贫困为核心延展到非经济贫困，对浙江农村居民相对贫困的演变趋势、结构、影响因素和动态性等内容进行了具体的研究和探讨。主要内容和结论如下：第1章导论，主要介绍研究背景和意义，明确研究对象和研究方法，提出研究假设，理清研究思路，并指出研究可能达到的创新及存在的不足。第2章关于贫困研究的理论演进与相对贫困。主要循着贫困研究的演进路径，对经典贫困理论、贫困研究视角和测度体系等方面的内容和研究成果进行简要回顾和述评，并进一步介绍了贫困研究的拓展和变迁以及国内农村相对贫困研究的必然性。第3—5章主要介绍了浙江农村相对贫困的整体状况、结构和影响因素及其演变。其中第3章浙江农村相对贫困的状况及其演变，主要运用基尼系数和FGT指数等对居民收入不平等和相对贫困的整体状况和演变趋势进行了考察和分析，结果发现，居民收入不平等、收入贫困和消费贫困，尽管具体状况和演变轨迹存在差异，但均在高位波动中呈现上升趋势，特别是贫困者之间差距的扩大更为严重。第四章浙江农村相对贫困的结构及其演变，主要通过对贫困剖析形成的多维度贫困结构及其演变的分析，研究不同群体贫困发生率、贫困深度和强度的差异及其变迁，并通过对特定群体相对贫困风险的考察，比较研究其陷入贫困概率的差异及其演变，结果发现居住在丘陵地区、以农业经营和就业为主、劳动力和主劳动力文化水平较低而年龄较高、缺乏技术职称和职教培训、没有党员和干部以及人均耕地面积中等的家庭，始终面临相对较高的贫困风险，贫困问题较为严重。第五章浙江农村相对贫困的影响因素分析，主要基于Shalpey值法对贫困的分解，考察了经济增长与收入分配以及不同收入来源对贫困的影响及其演变，并运用Logit模型研究了典型年份不同微观因素对家庭贫困的影响及其差异，在此基础上预测了典型家庭的贫困概率。结果表明，经济增长、家庭经营收入和工资性收入一直是降低贫困的主要力量，但经济增长和家庭经营收入的作用在减弱，而工资性收入的作用在逐渐增强；而平原地区相对优越的自然条件、人均耕地和人均非生产性固定资产以及人均金融资产高的拥有量、非农产业和非农就业相对较高的劳动收益率、劳动力以及主劳动力的人力资本优势、核心家庭的适度人口规模优势和低的抚养比以及党员和干部等社会政治资本均会降低家庭的贫困概率。第6章浙江农村相对贫困的动态性研究，主要在概述贫困动态性研究进展和成果的基础上，从贫困期限和贫困进入—退出两种角度考察了长期贫困、短期贫困、从不贫困和贫困进入—退出以及保持的基本状况，并运用Probit模型对不同贫困期限和贫困进入—退出—保持的影响因素及其边际影响进行了研究。结果发现，大多数家庭总是处于贫困进入与退出的运动过程中，但不同家庭经历从不贫困和长期贫困的比例存在很大差异，其中无耕地、非农主业和就业家庭以及主劳动力和劳动力平均受教育年限最高的家庭从不贫困比例较高，而长期贫困比例较低；丘陵地区、农业主业和就业家庭、主劳动力和劳动力平均受教育年限为0年以及人均耕地1—2亩的家庭长期贫困占比高于其从不贫困占比。同时，纯农占比的提高会显著提高家庭进入和处于长期贫困的概率，而降低从不贫困和贫困退出的概率；主劳动力文化水平提高会显著提高家庭从不贫困概率而降低短期贫困概率；耕地的增多会显著降低家庭从不贫困概率而提高长期贫困和贫困进入退出的概率；非生产性固定资产的增加会显著提高家庭从不贫困概率而降低短期和长期贫困以及贫困进入退出和保持的概率；家庭类型层级的提高会显著降低家庭短期贫困概率而提高贫困保持和长期贫困概率，等等。第七章基于非经济贫困视角的浙江农村相对贫困探讨，主要在对非经济贫困内涵和外延以及研究成果简要概述的基础上，对浙江农村居民的教育贫困、就业贫困和健康贫困状况及其演变趋势进行了研究，并对非经济贫困内部以及与经济贫困之间的关系进行了考察。结果发现，虽然教育贫困、就业贫困和健康贫困的状况都得到了一定改善，但就业贫困和健康贫困家庭内部差距却呈现扩大趋势。同时，非经济贫困内部以及与经济贫困之间均存在既相互区别又相互联系的辨证关系，一旦陷入某方面贫困，就会增加处于现有贫困和陷入其他方面贫困的可能性。第八章结论及启示，主要在总结全文的基础上，结合浙江农村实际，提出了对待相对贫困的理念和政策。即基于人人共享和社会公正的理念，促进经济增长与加大收入分配调节力度并重；加速农村工业化进程，促进农村非农产业发展；促进农村土地流转，加快现代农业建设；尽快建立和完善农村社会保障制度体系；提高人力资本存量，增强发展能力，等等。本文研究在以下方面可能做出了创新：一是采用相对贫困视角研究浙江农村的贫困问题，不仅突破了以往农村贫困研究只聚焦于绝对贫困的局限，而且与发达地区农村经济社会发展和贫困问题的转换相一致；二是对贫困动态性和非经济贫困进行了实证研究，做到了静态贫困与动态贫困、经济贫困与非经济贫困的有机结合，从而突破了以往静态经济贫困研究的不足；三是对多维度贫困结构及其特定群体的相对贫困风险进行了研究，从而深化了贫困内在机理的比较研究，克服了以往整体贫困研究缺乏针对性的特点；四是综合运用了FGT、Shapley、Probit和Logit模型对贫困状况、贫困结构、贫困影响因素以及贫困进入—退出的影响因素及其边际影响等内容进行了研究，从而实现了计量研究方法综合运用的创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is well known that poverty and wealth go hand in hand in human history. But with the development of social productivity and people’s ability in creating physical materials, general absolute poverty will be gradually replaced by relative poverty of a fraction of people. The developed country’s poverty practice has already proved this. As a country being in a period of transition, there still exists absolute poverty in such special areas as central and western regions and minority areas of China, but its poverty incidence is very low. Meanwhile, the relative poverty also becomes more and more prominent problem accompanied by not only the increase of income per capita, but the aggravating of income inequality, which are being paid more attention by the social people. For example, Zhejiang province, as the first province entering moderating developed level, the fastest economy increment and the highest per capita income level for rural residents, has basically ended the absolute poverty. At the same time it also brings expanding disparity between the rural residents in income and the opposite development between poverty and wealth in rural areas. All of these factors mentioned above not only have negative effects on social economic running, but also influence the building of harmonious society and new countryside. Therefore, if we study relative poverty in rural Zhejiang, we can get the grip of its external expression, probe its internal mechanism and rules. And this kind of work can not only provide us certain theory and practice foundation for effectively controlling the relative poverty, but provide us certain referential value for predicting and averting undeveloped area’s relative poverty problems so as to further promote our economy and society’s sound and sustainable development.By using fixed observation spot longitudinal data from 1993 to 2006 in rural Zhejiang, this dissertation study evolution trends, structure, influence factors and dynamic traits of relative poverty in rural Zhejiang with the instrument of DAD software, Logit and Probit model. The basic thread of thought about the whole work is focused on "how relative poverty change? How relative poverty develop from monetary poverty to non-monetary poverty". The main contents and results are as follows:Chapter 1 is an introduction. First we describe backgrounds, meaningfulness, objectives, hypotheses, methods, theoretical framework of the research as well. And then we point out the innovation work and the inadequate which may be conquered in future research.Chapter 2 focuses on theory evolution and relative poverty in poverty research history. By following evolution path of poverty research, this part of study reviews the contents and achievements in regard to classic poverty theory, research direction and the scaling system in poverty. Based on above information we discuss the expending and changing in poverty research and the necessity of relative poverty research in rural China.Chapter 3 to Chapter 5 describe the whole status, structure, influence factors of relative poverty and their evolution in rural Zhejiang. Chapter 3 is about the status and its evolution of the relative poverty in rural Zhejiang. In which we examine the status and evolution of the relative poverty with the Gini coefficient and FGT index. The result of data analysis demonstrate that, although there exist differences in specific status and evolution trends, resident’s income inequality, income poverty and consume poverty show rising trend in high-level fluctuating. And also we find these kinds of situation are more serious among the poor. Chapter 4 is about the structure and its evolution of the relative poverty in rural Zhejiang. In which after anatomizing the multidimensional poverty structure and its evolution we analyze the difference consisting in poverty incidence, poverty depth and poverty intensity among different groups. Further, after examining the relative poverty risk of specific groups we comparatively study the difference in probability falling into poverty of specific groups and their evolution. We find out families ,which residing in downland, engaging mainly in agriculture, being short of education of the main labor with old age, having moderate cultivated land per capita and lacking technical titles, vocational training, communist and cadre, always have relatively higher poverty probability and more serious poverty problems. Chapter 5 is the analysis of the influence factors of relative poverty in rural Zhejiang. In which through decomposing poverty with Shapley value approach, we analyze such factors as economy growth, income distribution and different income sources, and their effects to poverty and their evolution. Different micro factors affecting family poverty and poverty diversity in typical years are explored by using Logit model, In addition, to predict the typical family poverty probability we deeply dig out the data we have. As a result the findings indicate: economy growth, income from household business and wage income are always the important power for decreasing poverty, but compared to the later factor’s role gradually strengthen, the two former factors’ role gradually weaken. While factors, such as relatively superiority natural condition in plain, more cultivated land, nonproductive fixed assets and per capita financial assets, relatively higher yield of non-agriculture industries and non-agriculture employment, human capital’s advantage in labor and main force, optimum population sizes in core family, low dependency ratio and social political capital, can bring down poverty probability.Chapter 6 is the study of relative poverty dynamics in rural Zhejiang. Based upon the new development in poverty dynamics theory, we test the basic status of chronic poverty, temporary poverty, never poverty, poverty enter-exit-stay from two angles of poverty term and poverty-in-and-out. Influential factors and the marginal effects on different poverty term and poverty enter-exit-stay are probed by using Probit model. The results show that most families are always in the movement of poverty-in-and-out, although different families have large diversity in proportion on suffering from never poverty to chronic poverty. Among them families that belong to without cultivated land, non-agriculture main business and employing, having highest average educated time of labor and main force have the higher ratio of never poverty and the lower ratio of chronic poverty; while families that belong to downland, agriculture main business and employing, non-educated experience of labor and main force and cultivated land per capita from 1 to 2 mu, have the higher ratio of chronic poverty and the lower ratio of never poverty. Meanwhile the increase of pure agriculture force ratio can significantly enhance slipping and staying chronic poverty probability, but decrease the probability of never poverty and poverty-out; The improvement of education of main labor force can significantly raise probability of never poverty and lower temporary poverty’s; Similarly the increase of cultivated land can extremely decrease never poverty’s probability and enhance chronic poverty and poverty in-and out’s probability; And the increase of nonproductive fixed assets can remarkably advance never poverty probability and decrease chronic poverty, temporary poverty and poverty in-and-out probability; The increase of family type hierarchy can remarkably decrease temporary poverty probability but enhance chronic poverty and poverty maintaining probability.Chapter 7 reveals the relative poverty based upon non-monetary aspect in rural Zhejiang. According to previous results in non-monetary poverty and its connotation and denotation, we explore the status and evolution trends of education poverty, employment poverty, health poverty, the relationship within non-monetary poverty and between non-monetary poverty and monetary poverty of rural residents in Zhejiang. And we get following results: to a certain extent the situations in education poverty, employment poverty and health poverty are improved, while the internal distance in employment poverty and health poverty’s families appear expanding trend. Moreover, non-monetary poverty interior and its connection with monetary poverty have dialectic relationship. Once plunging into certain poverty, the probability of staying current poverty and running into other poverty will increase.Chapter 8 gives some conclusions and revelations. Based on summarizing the paper and combining the actual situation of rural Zhejiang, we put forward some ideas and policies to cope with relative poverty. That is, with the idea of a society for all and social justice, we should pay equal attention to advancing economy growth and adjusting income distribution, accelerate rural industrialization and promote non-agriculture development, facilitate lands transfer and speed modern agriculture construct, establish and improve rural social security system, improve human capital and enhance development capability, etc.This paper makes out some innovations to the following aspects. Firstly, studying poverty in rural Zhejiang with relative poverty perspective, we not only break through the limit of previous research focused on absolute poverty, but keep in line with the socioeconomic development and the changing of poverty in developed rural area. Secondly, carrying empirical research on poverty dynamics and non-monetary poverty, we achieve organic integration of static poverty and dynamic poverty, monetary poverty and non-monetary poverty. Thereby, we overcome the shortcoming of previous research on static and absolute poverty. Thirdly, exploring the multidimensional poverty structures and relative poverty risk of particular groups, we deepen comparative study on immanent mechanism of poverty, and surmount the lack of pertinence of previous holistic approach of poverty. Fourthly, combining with a variety of approaches such as FGT, Shapley value ,Probit and Logit model, we study poverty status, poverty structure, influence factors of poverty and poverty-in-and-out, consequently, realize the innovation of integration use on econometric research method.更多还原