【作者】 欧阳旭；

【导师】 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 产业发展的规律表明，随着工业化进程的加快产业结构将逐步发生调整，第一产业在国民经济中的比重持续下降，而第二产业在国民经济中的比重将显著上升，第三产业也将快速发展；与此同时，三次产业之间的就业比例也会发生变化，劳动力从第一产业中转移出来，迅速被第二、三产业吸纳。由此可以看出，第三产业不断发展壮大，在国民经济中的地位也越来越重要。但是并不是所有的国家和地区都会在相同的发展阶段及时地进行产业升级和转变，特别是对第三产业发展而言。对区域发展而言，区域经济发展到特定的水平时，第三产业在区域经济中的地位如何，对区域经济发展起到的作用如何，与其它产业之间的关系如何，这些问题引起了研究者的广泛兴趣。作为经济发展大省江苏省的省会——南京，改革开放以来，区域经济一直保持快速增长，第三产业也快速发展，成为经济增长的重要推动力。事实上，加快第三产业的发展，提高第三产业在地方经济中的地位，也是多年来地方政府经济政策的重要导向之一。从具体情况来看，第三产业在地方经济中的比重逐渐扩大，由以前农业主导型过渡到工业和第三产业并推型，第三产业比重在1999-2003年期间曾超过第二产业的比重，最高时比重达到了51％；同时第三产业内部各行业迅速发展，形成了传统行业和新兴行业共同发展的良好局面。同时，第三产业在吸纳就业方面的优势也比较显著，第三产业从业人员在总从业人员中的比例一直保持在较高水平上。尽管如此，但是第三产业发展仍然存在一些问题，近两年第三产业在地方经济中的比重下降，就业比重也有所降低，增长速度放缓，这一现象已引起相关政府部门的关注。那么这些现象究竟是什么原因导致的，是否是区域经济发展过程中出现的正常现象，其它类似城市是否也出现了相同的问题?回答这些问题对于进一步促进第三产业发展，加快地方经济增长有重要的现实意义。为解决上述问题本研究从以下几个方面入手：(1)分析和评价南京市第三产业发展的地位和水平。因为在产业结构调整，经济快速发展的背景下，要正确认识南京市第三产业的发展中存在的一些问题，当务之急就是要正确认识南京市第三产业发展所处的阶段，全面评价南京市第三产业的发展水平。(2)与周边城市对比。分析周边类似城市在发展过程中是否也出现了类似的问题以及与南京市的发展是否存相同点和差异，这对解决问题也是非常重要的。(3)衡量南京市第三产业发展效率和规模报酬。通过衡量资本和劳动力两种投入要素对第三产业的发展的作用，两种投入要素的使用效果以及规模报酬情况，探讨第三产业发展的效率。(4)分析影响南京市第三产业发展的因素。影响第三产业发展的因素很多，究竟哪些因素起到关键作用对于下一步促进第三产业发展是非常重要的。围绕上述问题和着手点，本研究采用定性分析与定量分析、规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法，对南京市第三产业的发展水平和发展效率等问题进行了比较深入和系统地研究。首先从历史和现实两个角度，通过横向和纵向对比正确认识南京市第三产业所处的阶段，全面评价南京市第三产业发展水平；其次估计南京市第三产业发展对经济增长的贡献，发展的效率以及发展所依赖的条件，最后得出以下结论：1．发展水平方面。(1)改革开放以前，由于需要集中力量进行农业生产的恢复和工业化的起步，第三产业并没有得到足够的重视，并且由于整个国家处于特殊时期，第三产业发展缓慢，甚至出现停滞和倒退现象，第三产业的发展严重落后于经济发展水平，这与产业结构发展的规律并不相符合。(2)改革开放以后，城市经济发展逐渐走向正轨，第三产业得到了相应的恢复和发展，特别是90年代以后，国家对第三产业发展政策的调整，为后来第三产业发展奠定了坚实的基础，使得第三产业规模和总体水平迅速提高，在地方经济中所占的比重越来越高，对地方经济发展的作用也越来越明显。(3)目前南京市第三产业发展正处于由以工业化和大规模化为标志的产业结构发展的第二阶段向以第三产业快速发展为标志的第三阶段过渡的时期。南京市第三产业比重下降与增长缓慢是这个阶段的正常现象。2．城市对比方面。(1)从发展水平来看，南京市第三产业发展的绝对规模与苏州、无锡在1993年几乎相同，但随着经济的发展三城市第三产业发展规模差距扩大，其中南京市的第三产业发展规模要低于苏州的发展规模。但人均第三产业增加值与苏州相当，高于其它两个城市。从第三产业的产值比重来看南京市第三产业的产值比重要高于其它三个城市，这在一定程度上表明了南京市产业结构调整的程度和成果。并且在近两年都出现了第三产业比例下降和增长放缓的现象。(2)发展速度比较。南京市第三产业发展速度与其它三个城市相比，并不具有优势，四城市第三产业的发展速度总体上都呈现下降趋势。(3)功能比较。从第三产业发展对经济增长的贡献来看，南京市第三产业对经济增长的贡献率要高于其它三个城市，极大地推动了城市经济的发展；而从内部行业发展对经济增长的贡献来看，四个城市传统行业对经济增长的贡献率都较大，而南京市新兴行业对经济增长的贡献率要高于其它三个城市，但是新兴行业的发展与发达国家和地区还具有一定的差距，其发展潜力巨大。从吸纳就业来看，南京市第三产业就业比例和吸纳能力要远远高于其它三个城市，这为解决南京市城市化进程中农村劳动力转移作出了重大贡献。3．生产效率和规模报酬方面。(1)对1992年到2004年南京市第三产业生产效率的研究发现，劳动的边际产出弹性在绝对值上要远远高于资本的边际产出弹性，劳动的边际产出弹性大于1，而资本的边际产出弹性小于1，因此劳动投入的作用要显著大于资本投入的作用。但无论是资本的投入作用还是劳动的投入作用都呈现出下降趋势，这两种投入所带来的效果这种逐渐下降。(2)两种要素边际产出弹性的存在差异，两种要素的边际生产率也存在显著差异。资本的边际生产率呈现不断下降趋势，而劳动的边际生产率呈现不断上升趋势。(3)从规模报酬来看，南京市第三产业具有明显的规模经济效应，处于规模报酬递增阶段，规模报酬弹性大于1，因此南京市第三产业发展还具有很大的潜力和后劲。(4)劳动与资本的要素替代弹性系数始终大于1，并且呈现逐步上升趋势，两者之间的替代越来越容易。4．影响因素方面。(1)需求因素较大地拉动了南京市第三产业的发展。在需求因素中，我们考察了城市经济发展水平、城市化程度、城市消费水平等三个指标对第三产业发展的影响，这三个指标对第三产业发展的都存在积极影响，其中城市化程度对第三产业发展的影响非常显著。(2)供给因素中，基本建设投入水平对第三产业的发展具有显著地影响，而政府的财政支出水平对第三产业发展的影响为负，这应该引起政府的足够重视，也避免政府支出水平带来的第三产业发展的消极的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The law of industry development indicates that with the speeding process ofindustrialization, the industrial structure is now regulating progressively. The primaryindustry is sustained decreasing in the proportion of GDP while the secondary industry isconspicuous increasing, simultaneously, there is a great change of the proportion among thethree industries. The labour force surely transfer from the primary industry, and be absorbedswiftly by the secondary and the tertiary industries. From the above we can make out thatthe tertiary industry is developing progressively and takes more and more important role inGDP. However, the promotion and the changing of the industry will not happen just in timeduring the same period in every country or every region, especially the tertiary industry.The researchers are interested in all the following as: the regional economy development toa specific level, the position of the tertiary industry in the regional economy, the affectionof the tertiary industry in the regional economy and its relationship between the other twoindustries.Nanjing as provincial capital of Jiangsu, after the reform and open policy, its regionaleconomy keeps up a steady increasing and its development of tertiary industry is always apropelling force for economical growth. In fact, accelerating the tertiary industry andraising its standing in the local economy is one of the orientations of the local governmentaleconomy policy during the past few years. From the concrete condition that we understandthe proportion of the tertiary industry is expanding by degrees, from beforehand agriculturalleadership transition to secondary industry and tertiary industry pushing. The proportion oftertiary industry once surpass the secondary industry during the years from 1993 to 2003,the top proportion is upto 51%. Simultaneously interior various sectors of tertiary industryhave developed rapidly, forming a very good prospect of traditional and emergent industries.Meanwhile, the superiority is prominent in outplacement of the tertiary industry. Thenumber of the outplacement of the tertiary industry among the total proportion is on thehigh level. However, there are some problems in the development of the tertiary industry,the proportion of the tertiary industry is decreasing in the local economy in general, and theoutplacement is decreasing as well, the speed of the development is slowing in special. The phenomenon of these problems bring about close attention of related organizations. What’sthe cause that bring about the problems? Are they normal in the regional economydevelopment? Are there the same problems in the other cities? It is very practical to answerthese questions for the promotion of the tertiary industry and for the high speed increasingof the local economy.In order to solve the above problems, this research overall object was: (1) estimate andanalyze the position and the level of the tertiary industry development in Nanjing, in case ofthe adjustment of the industry structure and the high speed developing of economy, wemust correctly understood development stage of Nanjing’s tertiary industry;comprehensively appraised development level of Nanjing’s tertiary industry; whollyestimated the developmental level of Nanjing tertiary industry. (2) compare with theneighbouring cities, analyze the similar neighbouring cities to see whether they have thesimilar problems in developing process, and analyze the identical and different problems ofthe development of Nanjing. These are very important for solving the problems. (3)adjustment of Nanjing’s tertiary industry developmental productivity and the returns toscale, through the judgement of the input crucial coponents of capital and labor whichproduc an effect on the development of the tertiary industry, we understand the operationof the two input crucial coponents and the condition of the returns of scale, discussing theefficiency of the development of the tertiary industry. (4) analyse the influence element ofNanjing’s tertiary industry. There are lots of elements which affect the development of thetertiary industry. The key affection is very important to the further development of thetertiary industry.Revolving round the above questions and points of departure, this thesis adopts combinedmethods of qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, model analysis and concrete evidenceanalysis, and it makes a thorough and systematically research of the developing level andefficiency of Nanjing’s tertiary industry. Firstly, correctly understand the development stageof Nanjing’s tertiary industry from historical and the realistic aspect, from the vertical andhorizontal comparison. Estimate the development level of Nanjing’s tertiary industry totally.Next, appraise the contribution to the economic growth of Nanjing’s tertiary industry, theefficiency of the development as well as the condition development of the tertiary industryrelied on. Finally are the conclusions as follow:(1)developing level:①Before reforming and open, the tertiary industry was not attachedimportance because of the concentration on restoring agricultural production and the starting of industrialization, furthermore, the whole country was at a special period, andthe tertiary industry was developing slowly, even at a standstill or backwards. The tertiaryindustry was critical behind the level of the economy development. That was not in linewith the law of the development of the industry structure.②After reforming and open,city economy development have being standardized gradually, the tertiary industry wasgetting restored and developed, especially after the 1990s, our government made theadjustment policy of the tertiary industry, which laid a solid foundation for the laterdevelopment of tertiary industry. Tertiary industry has great developed and its gross levelincreased and its proportion in local economy raised.③now, the Nanjing’s tertiary industryis at the second stage of industrialization and broad in scale as the landmark of industrystructure development to the third stage of high speed development of tertiary industry asits landmark. It is normal for the proportion of the tertiary industry getting down and thegrowth getting up slowly during the period.(2)cities comparison:①through the developing level, the absolute scale of Nanjing’stertiary industry is almost the same as Suzhou, Wuxi in the year of 1993, but with thedevelopment of economy, the disparity is getting wider among the three cities. Thedeveloping scale of Nanjing’s tertiary industry is lower than Suzhou’s, but the per personadding value of tertiary industry in Nanjing is almost the same as in Suzhou, higher thanthe other two cities. Through the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry,Nanjing’s is higher than the other three cities. That indicates the degree and the fruitage ofthe adjustment of the industry structure. In the past two years, the proportion of the tertiaryindustry was getting down and the growth was getting up slowly.②speeding comparison:Nanjing has no advantage in speeding of tertiary industry than the other three cities. All thefour cities have the same tendency in speeding of the tertiary industry.③functioncomparison: Through the contribution of the tertiary industry to the economy growth, thecontribution proportion of Nanjing’s tertiary industry is higher than the other three cities.Itpromotes the city economic development. Through the contribution of the interior varioussectors to the economy growth, the contribution proportion of the four cities traditionalsectors are on the same level, but the emergent industries in Nanjing have morecontribution proportion than Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, eventhough, there is wide gapwith the developed countries and regions, it has a great potentiality in developing.④through the outplacement we can see that Nanjing is much higher than the other three citiesin the proportion of the tertiary industry and in the capacity of outplacement. It makes great contribution to the transfer of the rural labour for the process of urbanization.(3)productivity and returns to scale:①the results about productivity of tertiary industryfrom 1992 to 2004 in Nanjing found that the marginal output elasticity of labor is greaterthan the marginal output elasticity of capital. The marginal output elasticity of laborexceeds 1, while the marginal output elasticity of capital is below 1, so the inputcontribution of labor is significant greater than that of capital. However, the contribution oflabor and capital keeps dropping from 1992 to 2004 in Nanjing.②it is also a significantdifficulty in the marginal output productivities of two inputs. The marginal outputproductivity of capital shows descend tendency constantly, but the marginal outputproductivity of labor shows ascent tendency constantly.③it is obvious effect of returns toscale in Nanjing’s tertiary industry which is in stage of increasing. The elasticity of returnsto scale is higher than 1, that is to say, it is great potentiality and delay effect in Nanjing’stertiary industry.④the factor substitution elasticity between labor and capital is over 1from 1992 to 2004, and shows uptrend, so two factors is easy to substitute each other.(4)influence elements:①The element of requirement makes the development of Nanjing’stertiary industry greatly. We investigated on the spot of the city’s level of the economydevelopment, the process of the urbanization and the level of consumption, ect. All thethree targets have an activity influence on the development of the tertiary industry, amongthe three, the urbanization has an obviously influence on the development of the tertiaryindustry.②Through the supply element that we can feel the level of the investment incapital construction has a striking influence on the development of the tertiary industry,while the level of the governmental expenditure has a negative influence on the tertiaryindustry. This should arouse the attention of the government, meanwhile, it can refrain froma negative influence on the governmental expenditure level on the tertiary industrydevelopment.更多还原