【作者】 卜卫兵；

【导师】 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 乳品产业是中国农业经济中一个十分重要的部门。加快乳品产业发展，对于增加农民收入，改善城乡居民膳食结构、提高全民身体素质，促进农村产业结构调整和带动相关产业发展都具有十分重要的意义。近年来，我国乳品产业得到了极大的发展，乳及乳制品的供应和需求都以很快的速度增长。但是由于我国乳品产业目前仍处于发展的初期阶段，在发展过程中还存在一些亟待解决的问题。首先是奶源建设问题。由于组织化程度低、经营模式和饲养技术落后，目前我国原料奶生产的总体效率还不高，原料奶的供应跟不上乳品产业快速发展的需求，已经成为制约奶业发展的瓶颈之一。其次是乳品产业各参与主体之间的合作问题。产业链成员之间合作关系的处理一直以来都是产业链管理中的难题，但是要想保证产业链运作的成功，各参与主体又必须维持一个良好稳定的合作关系。近年来，在乳品产业链各参与主体之间，尤其是在奶农和乳品加工企业之间，不和谐的情况时有发生，严重制约了乳品产业的良性发展。因此，如何尽快提高我国原料奶生产效率，切实改进原料奶生产质量，妥善处理产业链成员之间的合作关系，增强乳品产业链的组织化程度，这些都将是维持我国乳品产业持续快速发展以及积极应对加入WTO带来的挑战所迫切需要解决的问题。为此，本文选择从组织的视角入手，探讨乳品产业链各主要环节及其联结点的组织模式及效率问题，旨在通过大量的实地调查，对不同组织模式下乳品产业的运作效率进行深入的比较分析，从而为促进我国乳品产业快速发展和增强其国际竞争力提供决策参考。本文采用的研究方法主要是在实地调查基础上的实证分析方法。为了了解当前我国乳品产业链的组织模式及效率问题，我们以乳品产业链中各主要参与主体为调查对象，在江苏全省展开了大规模的实地调查。调查样本的选择采取随机抽样的方法，分别调查了20家奶牛牧场、30家奶牛养殖小区和500家农户，并对14家乳品加工企业的50位管理者进行了深入访谈。通过调查，我们获得了三种主要的原料奶生产组织模式下详细的投入产出数据，包括实物量和价值量。通过访谈，我们获得了乳品产业链相关主体对于乳品销售的组织模式及效率以及乳品加工企业与原料奶供应商之间合作效率的评价。本文的主要研究内容如下：(1)乳品产业发展现状分析。首先对目前我国乳品产业链的现状进行描述，在此基础上分别从原料奶生产、乳品加工和乳品消费三个环节对我国乳品产业发展的历史与现状进行全面的考察。(2)原料生产组织模式分析。对当前我国三种主要的原料奶生产组织模式——农户家庭散养、奶牛养殖小区和现代化牧场的组织形式、特点和优缺点进行了详细的比较分析。(3)不同组织模式下原料奶生产效率分析。从实物量的投入产出关系以及经济上的成本收益比两个方面对农户、小区和牧场三种模式下原料奶的生产效率进行了全面的比较分析。(4)乳品销售环节的组织模式及效率分析。乳品加工企业设立自己的营销网点、利用商场／超市的营销网点以及借助经销商／代理商的销售力量是目前我国乳品销售的三种主要渠道。这三种模式各有利弊，为了全面考察这三种销售模式各自的优缺点，我们首先构建了一个用于评价乳品销售模式运作效率的评价指标体系，该指标体系包括渠道管理水平、功能指标、柔性指标和财务贡献指标等四大类共17个具体指标。然后利用调查数据，应用层次分析法对上述三种销售模式的渠道效率进行了测评。(5)乳品加工企业与原料奶供应商合作效率分析。乳品加工企业与原料奶供应商合作关系和合作效率是影响乳品产业链整体绩效的关键因素。为了评价乳品加工企业与原料奶供应商之间的合作效率及其影响因素，我们构建了一个评价指标体系。该指标体系包括合作意愿、合作方式、合作能力、合作条件和合作风险五大类共15个评价指标。主要研究结论如下：(1)近年来，我国原料奶生产呈现快速增长的势头，但在快速增长的同时也暴露出很多问题。最突出的问题是以农户家庭散养为主的生产组织模式，其经营规模过于狭小，单产水平低，产品质量难以控制，已经成为制约整个乳品产业健康发展的瓶颈。(2)在原料奶生产效率方面，三种组织模式的技术效率(实物投入产出)和经济效率(成本收益比)存在明显的背离。具体来说，与现代化牧场和奶牛养殖小区相比，农户家庭散养模式的技术效率低而经济效率高。主要原因在于农户家庭散养模式存在较大的负外部性，如有些投入(主要是粗饲料)是免费获得的，而且也不用支付用于治理环境污染的相关费用。这一研究结论也解释了为什么尽管农户家庭散养模式存在诸多弊端，但却仍是我国目前原料奶生产的主要组织形式的原因。(3)不同销售模式运作效率的分析表明，在综合考虑多种因素而且各因素对企业同等重要的情况下，直接渠道是最有效率的销售模式，其次是商超模式，而经销代理模式效率最低。但在现实中，由于各个企业的规模实力、战略重点和内外部环境各不相同，即使同一家企业在不同的发展时期也有很大的差异，因此很难简单地说哪一种销售模式就是最好的。乳品加工企业在选择销售渠道时，应当结合自身的经营策略和企业实力对这种些模式进行综合分析，以确定恰当的营销渠道组合。(4)对奶农、奶牛小区和牧场这三类原料奶供应商与乳品加工企业之间的合作效率的实证分析结果表明：在奶农、奶牛养殖小区、牧场与乳品加工企业的合作中，牧场与乳品加工企业的合作效率指标得分最高，其次是奶牛小区，奶农与加工企业的合作效率得分最低。进一步分析表明，合作能力及条件是影响乳品加工企业与其供应商之间合作效率的最主要因素。规模狭小的个体农户与具有一定规模实力的加工企业组成经济合作关系时，由于自身实力与规模的限制造成主体地位的不对等，利润难以共享，风险不能共担，因而合作效率较低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dairy industry is an important sector in agricultural economy in China. It is a significant meaning to speed up development of dairy industry for improving the meal structure of residents and body constitution, increasing peasant’s income, and for optimizing industry structure of rural as well as promoting relevant industries.In recent years, the dairy industry of our country has got great development. Supply and demand of milk and dairy products have increased at the very fast pace. But because the dairy industry of our country is still at initial stage of development at present, some problems to be solved urgently still exist in the course of developing.Firstly, it is the building of milk sources, Lower level of organization, management mode and raise technique, our country raw materials overall efficiency that milk produce still high at present, which caused lowness of production performance in materials milk. So supply of raw materials milk can not catch up with demand of dairy in course of fast-developing.Secondly it is the cooperation of each participates in dairy industry. Cooperation among agri-chain members is the difficulty of agri-chain management. However, to guarantee the success of agri-chain, participates must keep one good stable partnership. In recent years, the disharmonious situation takes place occasionally each participate in dairy chain, especially between milk farmers and processing enterprises, which has restricted the benign development of dairy industry seriously.So how to enhance production performance of raw materials milk in our country as soon as possible and improve quality of products conscientiously, deal carefully with cooperation relationship among chain members, as well as to strengthen the organization intensity of dairy chain, which are all urgent problems for keeping fast development continuously and tackling challenge of WTO in our country’s dairy industry.For this reason, this paper discussed dairy stages and their organization mode and performance at the angle of organization. It is aim at comparatively analyzing operation efficiency of different organization modes in our country’s dairy industry, in order to support for developing decision and strengthening international competitiveness of dairy industry in our country.The research approach of this article is empirical analytical method mainly based on a real example on field investigation. In order to know the organization mode and efficiency of the present dairy chain of our country, we launched the extensive field investigation in the whole province of Jiangsu. Choice to investigation sample was taken random sampling method. We chose 20 cow pasture, 30 cow cultivation zone and 500 peasant households separately, and deeply interviewed 50 administrators of 14 dairy products processing enterprises.Through the investigation, we got input and output data about three production organization modes of main raw materials milk, including the material and value amount. We obtained that chain members estimated for organization modes of dairy products marketing and their efficiency and cooperative effectiveness between dairy processors and raw material suppliers.Contents and results of the research are as follows:(1)Analysis on organization modes in material production. We compared three kinds of production modes which are peasant household’s, minuses of cow’s cultivation zone and modernized pasture in raw materials milk production of our country. The results were found that though scattered raise mode of peasant household have a great deal of drawback, but it is the main organization modes in raw materials milk production of our country.(2)Analysis on productive efficiency of different organization modes in raw materials milk production. From two respects of input and output of the material and economical cost-effective, we compared productive efficiency of peasant households, district and pasture in raw materials production.The main analysis results includes:①input cost of pasture raise is the highest, district is second, and then scattered raise of peasant household The input cost which each cow every year is higher by 25.78% than that of cow’s district on average on the pasture, higher by 58.55% than peasant household’s family.②About cost and benefit of unit product, peasant household is the highest in cost-benefit ratio, the cow takes second place in the district, the pasture is the lowest.③The detection of the material content of raw materials milk analysis indicates that the quality of the pasture fresh milk is higher than cow’s cultivation zone, that of raise zone is higher than peasant household’s family.④According to material consumption of the unit product, pasture, and cow district are smaller than peasant household raise obviously.(3)The organizational model and efficiency analysis of dairy products marketing. There are three main marketing models of dairy products in China: marketing channel owned by dairy process company, marketing channel of malls and supermarkets, and marketing channel operated by franchiser or agent. This three marketing models have both advantages and disadvantages. When choosing marketing model, a dairy process company must do a comprehensive analysis for different channels incorporated with its business strategies and its capability, so that it can reach an appropriate marketing portfolios. To evaluate the efficiency of these marketing models, we first developed an evaluating index system, which consists of seventeen indicators divided into four clusters, i.e. channel managerial level, functional indicators, flexibility indicators, and financial contribution indicators.Using investigation data and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), we measured and evaluated the efficiency of the three marketing models. Our research showed:①channel of franchiser or agent depends deeply on company’s capability, so dairy companies with high capability are more easier to use this marketing model.②as far as marketing scope is conserned, the priority of these three marketing model is channel of franchiser/agent, channel of marketplace/supermarket, and channel of company itself in sequence.③the main advantage of channel of company is higher communication efficiency between company and consumers and less confliction and cooperational risks; while channel of marketplace/supermarket is good at promoting company’s public imaging.④the main disadvantage of channel of company is huge construction and operation costs, while channel of marketplace/supermarket has the largest contribution to company’s sale.(4)The cooperation efficiency analysis between dairy process company and its suppliers. The cooperation relationship and cooperation efficiency are key factors that influence performance of dairy chain as a whole. To evaluate cooperation efficiency and to identify its main determinants, we developed an evaluation index system, which includes fifteen indicators divided into four clusters, that is cooperation willingness, cooperation capacity, cooperation returns and cooperation risks.Using servey data and AHP, we conducted an empirical research about the cooperation efficiency between dairy company and dairy farmers, dairy farms and dairy pasture respectively. Our research shows: a) dairy pasture has the highest cooperation efficiency, then dairy farms, while dairy farmers has the lowest. b) dairy pasture has the highest cooperation willingness, while dairy farmers have the lowest, they prefer to do business with dairy company in market and provide raw milk to buyers who offer highest price. c) as far as cooperation capability and cooperation returns are conserned, pasture and farms performed much better than farmers, while the cooperation risks has no obvious distintion between farms and farmers. d) dairy farmers are more consern cooperation returns, while pastures and farms consern the quality of communication and improvement of respondness to market and consumers as well as profitability.更多还原