【作者】 吕炜；

【导师】 陈德棉；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 投资的本质特征是通过投入获得盈利。为了保障投资能够获取满意的回报，无论是证券投资、风险投资，还是产权投资和项目投资，都需要对投资对象所在产业的盈利性和投资机会进行研究和判断。并且对产业盈利性的研究和投资机会的判断是进行投资的重要基础性工作，具有非常重要的现实意义和很高的理论研究价值。但是，以往对产业盈利性及其演变规律和产业投资机会的研究，一般均立足于还原论的思维模式和确定性的均衡假设，依据这种思维模式和假设所进行的产业研究结果与实际情况往往会有很大的差距，对实际工作的指导意义非常有限。针对这一问题。本文基于复杂适应系统理论及经济学演化范式的观点和原理，以新的视角提出了一个独创的产业盈利性及投资机会评价模式，并依据这一模式对PCB产业的盈利性及投资机会进行了实证分析。具体研究内容归纳如下：思维模式的转变产业研究中运用的还原论思维模式来源于传统的经典物理学。以牛顿力学为代表的经典科学认为，现实世界的规律能够和应该从简单的原理和普遍的规律出发加以解释。随着以爱因斯坦的相对论和玻尔等人的量子力学为核心的现代物理学的诞生，使自然科学领域的思维模式开始发生转变，逐步从还原论转向整体论和系统论。开始注重从事物的整体和个体之间的联系去研究、发现事物的变化规律，并认识到一个系统“整体的功能大于部分之和”，许多系统“单个部分的性质与整体的性质存在极大的差异”。当自然科学领域的学者们不再以单纯的还原论和均衡论思维模式看待自然界事物时，在整体论和系统论的视角下，事物的复杂性就被呈现出来，复杂性科学及复杂性思维模式因此应运而生。复杂适应系统(CAS)理论与经济学演化范式复杂适应系统(CAS)理论和演化经济学就是在新的思维模式下产生的、新兴的复杂性科学和经济理论分支。CAS理论认为经济系统中的构成元素是具有适应性的主体，适应性的主体具有非线性、自组织、自学习、自适应、动态性和非均衡性等复杂性特征。CAS理论针对CAS涌现现象的研究，建立了基于主体的多层次网络结构受限生成过程模型，提出了深入认识和分析CAS的较为系统的思路和方法。在经济学领域中，针对均衡范式存在的局限性，演化范式提出将经济系统视为一个演化着的复杂系统，认为经济活动过程是一个动态的、非均衡的演化过程，认识到理性的有限性和信息的不完全性，形成了基于有限理性和不完全信息的动态非均衡演化分析范式。基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论与经济学演化范式的产业盈利性及投资机会评价模式根据CAS理论的基本观点和多层次网络结构受限生成过程模型，我们将产业系统视为一个适应性主体或基于主体特征的机制，产业的盈利性则被当作产业系统的一个状态变量。在此基础上，本文提出了以目标产业为核心的H型产业网络结构分析框架，将目标产业的盈利性放入到与目标产业直接连接的上下游产业所构成的H型产业网络中进行分析。在H型产业网络中，目标产业通过产量、产业集中度、技术创新和产业规制等要素与上下游产业相连接，目标产业的盈利性状态与H型产业网络中所有产业的产量、产业集中度、技术创新和产业规制等状态相互关联、相互作用。同时，本文认为无论是产量和产业集中度，还是技术创新和产业规制，这些状态变量对目标产业盈利性的影响不取决于其绝对水平，而是取决于目标产业与上游产业之间及目标产业与下游产业之间的相对水平，即相互间的差异大小。本文提出通过将目标产业的产量、产业集中度、技术创新和产业规制状态分别与上下游产业的对应状态进行对比分析或差异比较，来评价和推断目标产业的盈利性状态。因此，本文将基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论与经济学演化范式的产业盈利性及投资机会评价模式归结为：“H型产业网络”+“4个盈利性相关状态变量(产量、产业集中度、技术创新和产业规制)”+“目标产业与上下游产业状态对比分析”，这一模式为更加科学、客观地分析和评价产业盈利性及产业投资机会提供了有效的方法和思路。对PCB产业盈利性及投资机会的分析与判断PCB作为“电子系统产品之母”，应用范围非常广泛，使PCB产业成为电子元件产业中的主要支柱产业，且具有快速增长的朝阳产业特征。目前，中国已经成为全球PCB第一生产大国，PCB产业在国民经济中占据着重要的战略和经济地位。研究和探索国内PCB产业的演化规律和特征，认识和把握PCB产业发展过程的投资机会具有十分重大的现实意义。根据本文提出的产业盈利性及投资机会评价模式，针对PCB产业及其主要上下游产业(包括覆铜板(CCL)、电脑、手机、数码相机、液晶面板、等离子面板、通信设备等产业)，分别对PCB产业与其主要上下游产业之间的产量增长率、产业集中度、产业技术创新成果、产业规制状况进行对比分析，并得出以下分析结果：■产量增长率：绝大部分下游产业的产量增长率远远高于PCB产业，差异均在2倍以上，而上游产业则略高于PCB产业。产量增长率对PCB产业的盈利性产生有利影响，是对PCB产业盈利性贡献最大的状态变量。■产业集中度：无论从国内PCB产业看，还是全球PCB产业看，PCB产业的集中度均大幅低于上下游产业。从产业集中度来看，PCB产业相对于上下游产业处于完全不利的状态之中，产业集中度是对PCB产业盈利性贡献最小的状态变量。■技术创新成果：从各产业前5大厂商获得的专利总量来看，PCB产业相对于上游产业具有微弱的技术创新优势，而相对于下游产业则存在非常明显劣势。从各个产业专利数量增长变动情况来看，PCB产业与下游产业整体平均增长水平比较接近，均基本保持稳定和较快增长，仅上游CCL产业增长缓慢甚至近10年呈负增长。因此，技术创新成果状态变量对PCB产业盈利性的贡献不大，在H型产业网络中，基本处于被动跟随状态。■产业规制：在社会规制方面，各个产业都需要应对来自环境保护方面的规制，没有大的差别。各个产业的规制状态差异主要体现在经济规制方面。其中，手机产业和通信设备(不包括手机)产业存在进入规制，液晶面板(LCD)与等离子面板(PDP)产业享受较多的产业优惠和扶持政策，其他产业(除LCD与PDP)的部分高端产品可享受产业优惠和扶持政策，覆铜板(CCL)产业的出口退税率被大幅调低，PCB产业、PC及数码相机产业则拥有相近且较为简单的经济规制环境。根据上述统计分析结果，可以进一步得出以下对PCB产业投资机会的认识和判断：■产量增长带来的规模扩张和盈利提升机遇：在PCB产业及其下游产业均保持良好增长势头的情况下，PCB产业与其下游产业之间还存在着较大的产量增长差异，而且是下游产业的产量增长远远快于PCB产业，这将有利于持续改善和提高PCB产业的盈利水平。■高端PCB细分领域的高成长与高回报机遇：未来PCB高端细分领域——HDI板和FPC板及其下游产业具有更好的成长性，并且由于HDI板和FPC板的工艺技术复杂、技术保障能力和机器设备投资要求较高，使这一产品领域具有相对较高的产业进入门槛。在相对较高的进入门槛保护下，有利于HDI板、FPC板厂商保持较高的盈利回报水平。■PCB产业集中度提升所带来机遇：PCB产业的低集中度，既为尚未进入PCB产业的厂商提供了低成本的进入机会，也为在位厂商通过产业重组和整合提升产业集中度提供了很大的空间。以动态的视角看待PCB产业的低集中度，有利于发现其蕴藏的并购重组机会。综上所述，本文通过理论研究，提出了独创的产业盈利性评价模式，并通过实证分析，获得了具有实用价值的分析成果。后续研究将主要在进一步完善产业数据的基础上，进行产业盈利性评价模型及机制转换函数模型的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 The essential character of investment is to put money into something to make aprofit. Whether securities investment and venture investment, or equity investmentand project investment, to research industrial profitability and to estimate investmentopportunity of the industry in which well be invest is necessary for to gain profit. Andto research industrial profitability is an important and basal work, there is a realisticsignificance and a value in theory study. But ago researched in industrial profitabilityand investment opportunity based on thinking pattern of the reductionism. There is awarp between industrial study and realistic condition owing to thinking pattern of thereductionism. Guidance effect of the industrial study is feeble toward actualinvesting.To the question, based on complex adaptive system theory and paradigm ofevolutionary economics, an estimating mode of original creation has been put forwardin the thesis. And an empirical analysis over the PCB industry has been made by theestimating mode. Concrete study work as:Thinking Pattern ChangeThinking patterns of the reductionism which has been applied in an industrystudying root in the classical physics. The classical physics of which Newtonmechanics is a core consider rule of the real world can be explain by the simpletheory and the universal rule. Along with birth of the modern physics of whichRelativity of Einstein and Quantum Mechanics is a core, thinking pattern of physicalscience has been changing from the reductionism to the holism and the system theory.People begin pay attention to study the rule from the relation of whole and individual,and find that whole function of a system is big than the sum of individual. There is ahuge difference between individual character and whole character in many systems.While the scholars no longer look on nature by pure reductionism and balancedviewpoint the complexity is presented on the angle of view of the holism and thesystem theory. Complexity science and Thinking pattern of complexity emerge as the times require.Complex adaptive system theory and paradigm of evolutionary economicsComplex adaptive system theory and evolutionary economics are born as a newembranchment of complexity science and economics on the new thinking pattern.An element of an economy system is regarded as an adaptive agent in the CAStheory. The adaptive agent has nonlinear, self-organizational, self- adaptive, dynamicand non-balanced complexity characters. In the CAS theory, a model of multilayernetlike constrained generating procedure is founded based on the agent by studyingthe Emergence phenomenon of CAS, and put forward a way and a method ofunderstanding and analyzing CAS.In the economics paradigm of evolutionary economics put forward that economysystem is a complex system of evolutionary against the deficiency in paradigm ofbalance, and considerers that economic activity process is a dynamic andnon-balanced evolutionary process, and understand there are limited intellect andincomplete information, and has formed a dynamic and non-balanced paradigm ofevolutionary analysis based on limited intellect and incomplete information.An estimating mode of industrial profitability and investment opportunitybased on complex adaptive system theory and paradigm of evolutionaryeconomicsWe regard an industry system as an adaptive agent or a mechanism which has anagent character and the profitability of an industry as a state variable of the industrysystem on the basis of the viewpoint of complex adaptive system theory and themodel of multilayer netlike constrained generating procedure. On the basis, we foundan analysis frame of H type industrial network as an objective industry is regarded acore, and profitability of the objective industry is analyzed in an H-type industrialnetwork which make up of objective industry and upriver industries and downriverindustries directly connecting each other.In an H-type industrial network, an objective industry is connected with upriverand downriver industries by the factors as output, industry concentration, technicalinnovation and industry regulation. Profitability conditions of an objective industryare affected by conditions of the output, the industry concentration, the technical innovation and the industry regulation which are all industries in an H-type industrialnetwork.At the same time, we consider that it is decided by the relative level between anobjective industry and its upriver industries or downriver industries, namely thedifference between the industries, and not the absolute level of each industry, whichthe state variables have the influence upon the profitability of an objective industry,whether output, industry concentration, technical innovation or industry regulation. Atechnique of appraising and deducing industrial profitability is put forward base uponcomparing and analyzing the difference between an objective industry and its upriverindustries or downriver industries in the output, the industry concentration, thetechnical innovation and the industry regulation.Therefore, the estimating mode of industrial profitability and investmentopportunity based on CAS theory and paradigm of economics evolutionary may beboiled down to: "H type industrial network" + "four state variables of industrialprofitability" + "contradistinctive analysis of the state variables between an objectiveindustry and its upriver industries or downriver industries". The estimating mode is auseful and scientific technique of appraising and analyzing the profitability andinvestment opportunity of an objective industry.Analyzing and estimating to the profitability and investment opportunity ofPCB industryAs a mother of all electronic products, there is PCB in any electronic shell. PCBindustry has become a primary mainstay industry in the electronic componentsindustry and has the character of a youthful industry which has increased fleetly. NowChina has become the largest country in the global PCB output capacity. The PCBindustry has taken possession of an important position in the national economy ofChina. It has a very great practical meaning understanding and grasping theinvestment opportunity in China PCB industry by studying and exploring theevolutionary rule and the evolutionary character of China PCB industry.We have made a contradistinctive analysis between an objective industry and itsupriver industries or downriver industries in the output, the industry concentration,the technical innovation and the industry regulation by applying the estimating mode of profitability and investment opportunity, and results of the analysis is:■Increasing Rate of Output: A majority of increasing rates of output ofdownriver industries are higher than PCB industry greatly and the difference ismore than double, But upriver industries are only a little more than PCB industry.So the increasing rate of output has a favorable influence upon profitability ofPCB industry, and it has a maximal tribute to profitability of PCB industry.■Industry Concentration: Whether China PCB industry or global PCB industry,its industry concentration is lower than its upriver industries or downriverindustries. On industry concentration, PCB industry is at a disadvantage relativeto its upriver industries or downriver industries. The Industry Concentration hasa lowest tribute to profitabilitv of PCB industry.■Fruit of Technical Innovation: On the sum of patent of which the first fivemanufacturers have gained in each industry, PCB industry has a little advantagethan its upriver industries, and has a obvious inferior position relative to itsdownriver industries. On the increasing rate of patent sum of each industry, theaverage of increasing rate between PCB industry and its downriver industries isnear, and is a steady high level. Only the increasing rate of patent sum of upriverCCL industry is low and negative. So the state variable of technical innovationfruit has a little tribute to profitability of PCB industry, and it is on a passive statein H type industrial network.■Industry Regulation: On the society regulation, each industry needs reply to theregulation from environmental protection, and there is not a big difference eachother. There is a big difference on economy regulation of these industries. Thereare entrance regulations in mobile telephone and communications equipmentindustry. LCD and PDP industry can enjoy much more policies in industrialsustain and preferential duties. Part of the high level product of the rest only mayenjoy policies of industrial sustain and preferential duties. Export drawback rateof CCL industry is depressed greatly. PCB industry and DC industry have analike and simple condition of economy regulation.Based on above analysis results, we can have the Understanding and estimatingof underside to the profitability and investment opportunity of PCB industry: ■An opportunity of expanding scale and increasing profit owing to outputincreasing: while output of PCB industry and its downriver industries have allkept a good increasing tendency, there is a big difference of output increasingbetween PCB industry and its downriver industries. And the output increasingrate of downriver industries is much faster than PCB industry. This will beadvantageous to improve and raise profit level of PCB industry.■An opportunity owing to fleetly growing and gaining in subdivision fields ofhigh level PCB: HDI board and FPC board and its downriver industries have ahigher increasing than the rest. And because technology of HDI board and FPCboard are very complex, stronger ability of technique sustaining and greaterinvestment sum of production equipment are request, these fields have a higherthreshold of entering industry. A higher threshold of entering industry isadvantageous to keep a higher profit level of HDI board and FPC boardmanufacturer.■An opportunity owing to raising industry concentration: because the industryconcentration of PCB industry is low, it provides an opportunity of enteringindustry of low cost for manufacturers which do not enter PCB industry, andprovides a great space for manufacturers which have entered PCB industry. It isfavorable for finding opportunities which contain in annex and recompose ofPCB industry, if we look on the low industry concentration of PCB industrybased on a dynamic view.As above, an estimating mode of industrial profitability of original creation hasbeen put forward in the thesis by academic study. And we have obtained a practicalfruit by empirical analysis. Posterior study will focus on models of estimatingindustrial profitability and mechanism conversion function based on perfectingindustry data.更多还原