【作者】 丁雪华；

【导师】 朝伦巴根；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 水问题从古至今都是关系到社会稳定与发展的大问题,处理好水资源开发利用和社会经济发展以及生态环境保护之间的关系是坚持可持续发展道路的重要内容。随着人口的城市化和经济的工业化,城市和工业用水量将大幅度增加,势必导致对农业水资源的挤占。本研究以内蒙古河套灌区的三湖灌域为背景,针对研究区的经济发展与水资源利用之间的矛盾,对研究区不同发展方案下的水资源进行了预测评价,以预测评价的结果为依据,对研究区未来15年的工业发展规模做了合理调整,使该地区的发展规划更具有科学性。在实际工作中,由于探测地层资料资金耗费较大,往往遇到地层资料短缺的问题,本文尝试使用地质统计学理论对含水层结构及渗透系数进行了模拟预测,在有少量地质资料的情况下,运用地质统计学的理论,将未知区域的地层情况推求出来,研究成果基本与研究区已有的地质构造及含水层分布资料吻合。很好的解决了地层资料短这一难题,对解决实际问题具有重要的意义。一般在使用Visual–MODFLOW时,存在着处理庞大数据困难的问题,文中GeoMedia对研究区的基础数据进行预前处理,为Visual–MODFLOW提供强大的数据来源,使Visual–MODFLOW模型预测结果的精度进一步提高。在详细调查现状水资源的基础上,研究区现状地下水资源水均衡计算的结果,进一步检验了Visual MODFLOW模型在研究区应用的可靠性,保证了VMOD模型预测评价结果的真实性。预测评价结果显示,近期开采方案下,到2010年研究区地下水总补给量为比现状年减少551.68万m3,地下水位下降了0.5～2.0m;中期开采方案下,到2015年研究区地下水总补给量比现状年减少2308.1万m3,地下水位下降了0.5～2.5m;远期开采方案下,到2020年研究区总补给量比现状年减少了3666.05万m3,地下水位下降了0.5～3.0m。研究结果认为,研究区发展工业主要利用地表水,占用了部分农田灌溉水量。农田灌溉的地表水用量减少,使灌溉入渗补给地下水的量也减少,同时加上对地下水的开采增加,直接导致研究区地下水量减少,地下水位下降,灌溉入渗量是研究区地下水资源的重要组成部分。到2020年地下水位下降最大值达3m,已接近生态要求最低水位,研究区引黄灌溉水量最少不能低于6000万m3,否则,研究区将会出现地下水量减少、地下水位持续下降的趋势,危及生态环境的安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water issue is a fateful issue to social stability and development in all ages and it is an important constituent part of adhering to sustainable development to properly handle the relationship of exploration and utilization of water resources with social and economic development and ecological environment protection. As the urbanization of population and the industrialization of economy, the water use of cities and industries will greatly increase, which will certainly seize the water resources for use in agriculture. Aiming at the conflict between its economic development and water resources utilization, this study conducted a prediction and evaluation on the water resources of Sanhuhe Irrigation Area of Inner Mongolia Hetao Irrigation District under various alternatives, and , based on the results, reasonably adjusted the development scale of its industry within the coming 15 years to make its development planning more scientifically sound.As the measurement of geological data is very costly, research work in reality often encounters shortage of geological data. This study attempted to apply the theory of geostatistics to simulate and predict the structure of aquifer and its permeability coefficient. With less geological data, the stratum status of study area was figured out using geostatistics and the results are in good agreement with the observed data of the geological structure and the aquifer distribution of the study area. It found a solution to the difficult problem of shortage of geological data and is of significance to solving practical problems. Lack of parameters and difficulty in processing huge amount of data are common problems in the use of Visual–MODFLOW. The study estimated the permeability coefficient of the study area using geostatistics to provide reliable parameters for Visual–MODFLOW and at the same time pre-processed the basis data of the study area using GeoMedia with strong spatial data processing capability to provide data source for Visual–MODFLOW. These have further increased the accuracy of prediction results of Visual–MODFLOW.According to the detailed survey of current water resources, the water resources balance results further verified the application reliability of Visual MODFLOW in the study area and ensure the authenticity of prediction and evaluation results obtained by using Visual MODFLOW The prediction and evaluation results show that, for the short term exploration alternative, the total groundwater recharge of the study area will decrease by 551.68×104m3 and the groundwater table will fall down by 0.5～2.0m by 2010 compared with the current year; for the medium term exploration alternative, the total groundwater recharge of the study area will decrease by 2308.1×104m3 and the groundwater table will fall down by 0.5～2.5m by 2015 compared with the current year; ; for the long term exploration alternative, the total groundwater recharge of the study area will decrease by 3666.051×104m3 and the groundwater table will fall down by 0.5～3.0m by 2020 compared with the current year;It is concluded that the development of industry of the study area will mainly use surface water and thus will seize a part of irrigation water. The decrease of groundwater recharge by irrigation infiltration due to the reduction of surface water for irrigation as well as the exploration of groundwater will directly result in the reduction of groundwater and falldown of the groundwater table of the study area. Irrigation infiltration is an important constituent part of groundwater resources of the study area. With a maximum falldown of 3m in 2020, the groundwater table of the study area will be close to the lowest water table required by ecology. The irrigation water diversion of the study area from the Yellow River should by no means be less than 6000×104m3, otherwise, the trend of groundwater reduction and continuous falldown of groundwater table will take place in the the study area and endanger the security of its ecological environment.更多还原