【作者】 王雄；

【导师】 姚云峰；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 可持续发展作为一种全新的发展观和发展模式已引起了国内、国际社会的广泛关注,它要求以良好的生态环境为基础,而生态环境的维持和改善依赖于森林生态系统的生态服务功能。从系统学角度考虑,森林生态服务功能的正常发挥离不开森林生态系统、生态环境系统、林业经济系统三者的协调、稳定运行。赤峰市是祖国北疆生态屏障的重要组成部分,在维持区域生态安全中占有举足轻重的地位。多年来,赤峰市森林覆被率不断增加,但上述三个系统运行却存在不协调、不稳定等现实问题,势必影响其可持续发展,因此,很有必要将上述三个系统复合为一个复杂系统即森林资源—环境—经济复合系统(FEECS)并从整体调控的高度有针对性地开展研究工作,为从根本上解决存在的问题提供参考依据,也期望取得的研究成果能弥补FEECS可持续发展理论体系的些许欠缺。本文运用资源与环境经济学、可持续发展论、系统学、统计学、森林资源可持续经营管理等理论,以赤峰市FEECS为研究对象,基于全市多年的森林资源、生态环境、林业经济动态统计数据,应用系统分析和现代统计学的相关方法,借用SPSS15.0和excel2003数据处理软件开展了研究工作,主要研究内容和成果如下:1)在了解FEECS结构和特征的基础上运用系统动力学(SD)原理分析了其运行机理,建立了能够与综合评价和预警相衔接的反馈回路,构建了SD因果关系图,并以赤峰市FEECS为例定量分析了其组分间的关联性,通过曲线拟合分析求得了森林覆被率与水土流失、森林覆被率与年平均风速和大风日数、林业产值与森林面积、林业产值与活立木蓄积量、林业投资与林业产值、林业投资与森林面积、林业投资与蓄积量之间的非线性模型方程,为评价和预警研究奠定了基础,同时也弥补了以往FEECS运行机理定性研究的不足。2)从资源与环境经济学角度出发,针对赤峰市FEECS可持续发展评价构建了指标体系,该指标体系既能从量化的角度反映FEECS发展中存在的问题也可与预警研究相衔接。本文应用该指标体系对赤峰市FEECS 1996年—2005年的可持续发展水平、可持续发展能力、可持续发展度的动态进行了综合评价,并将其在10年内的发展动态应用层次聚类分析法分为差、中、良3个发展阶段,发现在评价期10年内FEECS的可持续发展水平、可持续发展能力、可持续发展度均呈现为提高或增强态势; FEECS在1996年—1998年的可持续性属于“差”的发展阶段,1999年—2001年的可持续性属于“中”的发展阶段,2002年—2005年的可持续性属于“良”的发展阶段。近4年虽然FEECS发展的可持续性属于“良”这一发展阶段,但从动态分析中发现,其存在系统运行稳定性差、环境容载力略有降低,森林资源承载力、经济支撑能力、科技支撑能力增速缓慢有待进一步提高等问题。本文同时分析了产生这些问题的根源并从FEECS整体调控的高度提出增加林业投资、大力培育森林资源并优化森林资源结构、提高科技支撑能力、优化林业产业结构、严格控制人口增长、限制污染物排放等具体调控措施。3)在了解FEECS系统动力学因果关系链的基础上,再次运用SD原理对FEECS进行了系统分析并建立了SD预警模型,以此为基础通过因果关系分析选出了森林覆被率、人均森林面积、人均蓄积量、林业投资额、年平均风速和风速≥17m/s日数共6个先导预警指标用于状态预警,并在系统组分关联性模型的基础上提出了趋势预警法,最后构建了包括状态预警和趋势预警2种预警方法的可持续发展预警系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sustainable development is a completely new developing concept and developing pattern, which has aroused widespread concern at home and abroad. It demands a favorable ecological environment as foundation. The ecological service function of the forest ecosystem plays a role, which can not be substituted, in maintaining and improving ecological environment. From the angle of systematic science, forest ecosystem, ecological environment system and forestry economic system closely connects with each other to form the forest resources-environment-economy complicated system (FEECS). ChiFeng city, which plays an important role on maintaining regional ecological security, is a very important part providing ecological screen for the north territory of China. For many years, its percentage of forest cover increases continually, while the system operation presents several real problems of no harmony and no stability, so it is of necessity to carry out a research aiming at these problems from the angle of FEECS in order to solve these problems at last. With nature resources economics, environment economics, theory of sustainable development, systematic science, statistic and sustainable management of forest resources, etc., the author carries out study on FEECS in ChiFeng city, applying relevant methods in systematic science and statistics,SPSS15.0 and Excel software 2003. The main contents and results are as following:1)On the basis of keeping abreast of FEECS’structure and feature, the author applies the principles of system dynamics (SD)to study its operation principles, extracting a feedback loop which can be linked with comprehensive evaluation and warning, so as to construct the SD causality figure. Giving the example of FEECS in ChiFeng city, the author quantitatively analyzes the internal link among every core components, and extracts the nonlinear model equation, which not only remedies the defects of study on the theory of FEECS, but also lays foundation for the study of evaluation and warning.2)From the angle of resources and environment economics, the author establishes the index system of evaluation for FEECS’sustainable development. This index system can reflect the existed problems from a quantitative angle as well as connect with warning study. Applying this index system to comprehensively evaluate the dynamics of sustainable development level, capacity and degree of ChiFeng city’s FEECS from 1996 to 2005, the author notices that the sustainable development level, capacity and degree of FEECS in the 10 years appears an ascending or enhancing tendency; At the same time, the author also discovers several problems as poor stability of system operation and low stability of technological supporting ability, etc. After analyzing the causes of the problems, from the point of view of FEECS’integral control and regulation, the author puts forward several specific controlling and regulating measures such as: increasing forestry investment, increasing total amount of forest resources, optimizing structure of forest resources, optimizing industrial structure of forestry, attaching importance to forestry science and technology and controlling growth of population, etc.3) On the basis of knowing the causality chain of FEECS’system dynamics, using the principle of SD once more to carry out a systematic analysis of FEECS, the author constructs SD warning model. Combing the development Dynamics of FEECS in ChiFeng city, the author poses 2 measures of state warning and trend warning, at the same time, selects warning index of guiding, forms warning model of trend and constructs the warning system at last, which fill up the blanks of study on the theory of FEECS’sustainable development.更多还原