【作者】 陶红军；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业贸易与农村金融， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 农业综合生产能力是指在一定时期和一定社会经济条件下，由农业生产诸要素综合投入所形成，可以相对稳定地达到一定水平的农业综合产出能力。农业综合生产能力建设是发展湖北农村生产力的关键，它的提升有助于抵御农业自然风险，防范农业市场风险，大幅提高土地产出率，迅速提升农产品竞争力，增加农民收入。测算和评估结果表明，研究期间，湖北省农业综合生产能力水平是上升的，但是不稳定。农业各业之间的综合生产能力发展不平衡，农业为农民创造收入的能力在下降。研究期间，湖北省农业总量生产函数中农业劳动力投入的弹性为-1.4862，农业资本投入弹性为0.2819，农用土地投入弹性为0.5060。农业劳动力要素对农业综合生产能力贡献率为36.58％，农业资本要素贡献率为59.98％，农用土地要素贡献率为-7.06％，其它要素投入的贡献率为10.50％。应该降低农业劳动力数量，加大农业资本投入，特别是农业固定资产投入，严格控制农业用地的减少。随机前沿分析方法对湖北省农业技术效率的测算结果表明：研究期间，湖北省17个地区的农业技术效率水平都呈现稳定的增长趋势，但是各地区各年份的技术效率排名几乎没有变化。数据包络分析方法对湖北省农业技术效率的测算结果表明：研究期间，湖北省平均不变规模收益技术效率、平均可变规模收益技术效率以及规模效率的值都大于0.9。数据包络分析方法测算的农业技术效率要大于随机前沿分析方法的测算结果，但是2者呈正相关关系，变动方向一致。研究期间，湖北省农业全要素生产率年均增长3.6％，技术进步率年均增长2.9％，技术效率年均增长0.6％，拉动湖北省农业全要素生产率上升的主要因素是技术进步，技术效率改善对其作用有限。农业纯技术效率的增长率都高于规模效率的增长率，说明决定湖北省农业技术效率的主要因素是纯技术效率。湖北省当期的财政支农支出对当期农业生产总值的变动没有影响，滞后1期的财政支农支出对农业总产值的弹性较小，财政支农支出对农业产值的影响不明显。原因是财政支农支出的结构不合理，农业流动资金投入比例高，基本建设资金投入比例低。金融机构农村贷款对农户人均家庭经营收入的弹性为负是由于金融机构农业贷款的结构不合理造成的，农民能够得到的金融服务存在量少、成本高以及选择余地小的问题。农业区域比较优势分析表明，湖北省发展种植业生产优势地区有十堰、恩施、襄樊、宜昌、神农架、咸宁、随州、荆门和黄冈，发展林业生产优势地区有咸宁、神农架、十堰、黄冈、黄石、恩施、随州、襄樊和孝感，发展畜牧业生产优势地区有神农架、恩施、孝感、随州、天门、襄樊、宜昌和潜江，发展渔业生产优势地区有鄂州、荆州、仙桃、潜江、黄石、武汉、孝感、荆门、天门和黄冈。农业生产非均衡分析表明，研究期间，湖北省各地区农业生产的非均衡性总体上有所降低。其中，种植业生产非均衡程度降低，林业、畜牧业和渔业生产非均衡变动趋势则不明朗。渔业生产非均衡程度最高表明渔业生产易受自然条件制约，畜牧业生产非均衡程度最低表明畜牧业生产不易受自然条件制约。农业生产个体固定效应函数分析表明，地区因素对武汉、十堰、随州、荆门、咸宁、仙桃、天门农业产值增长影响较小，对宜昌、襄樊、恩施和黄冈农业产值增长具有一般性的积极作用，对荆州和孝感农业产值增长的正向作用很大，对黄石、潜江和鄂州农业产值增长具有较大的负面作用，对神农架地区农业产值增长具有最大的负面影响。农业生产时刻固定效应函数分析表明，1999-2004年期间宏观环境对农业生产是有利的，但是影响较小。“社会主义新农村建设”对湖北省农业生产的时刻政策效应还有待进一步观察。湖北省农业、林业、畜牧业和渔业脉冲响应函数表明：农业产值、林业产值和畜牧业产值对来自自身的1个单位正向标准差新息的反应最大，渔业则对来自自身的冲击反应较小。除了渔业之外，其它3个行业产值的增加主要来源于自身过去的积累。畜牧业产值1个单位正向标准差新息对其它行业产值的冲击最大，大力发展畜牧业可以带动农、林、渔业的发展。湖北省农业、林业、畜牧业和渔业预测方差分解结果表明：林业、畜牧业和渔业产值对农业产值增长的扰动已经超过农业本身，农业的健康发展更多地依赖于林、牧和渔业的健康发展；林业自身扰动项的冲击大于另外3个行业的冲击的和，林业产值的增加主要靠自身的努力；尽管农业产值、林业产值和渔业产值对畜牧业产值增长的冲击力度逐步加强，但是畜牧业产值的提高还是主要依靠自身；渔业产值对农业、林业和畜牧业，特别是畜牧业的健康发展具有高度的依赖性。提升湖北省农业综合生产能力必须做到以下几点：以农用土地治理为中心，深入开展农业广度开发。围绕改良耕作制度和提高单产水平进行农业深度开发。充分发挥农业结构调整的作用。合理安排农林牧渔业3要素投入，转移农村富余劳动力，提高农业固定资本投入比重，坚决制止农用土地面积下降趋势。发挥农业科学技术在农业生产中的作用，以农业技术进步带动农业全要素生产率的增长，以纯技术效率增长带动农业技术效率增长。确保财政支农支出稳定增长，调整财政支农支出结构。有步骤地推进农村金融体制改革，完善农村金融服务体系。基于合作金融事实上并不存在的判断，农村信用合作社改革的方向是商业化，建立股份制商业银行。成立邮政储蓄银行，允许邮政金融开办贷款业务，使农村资金尽可能留在农村，并且增加农村金融市场的竞争性。发挥地区农业生产比较优势，做到农业综合开发和全省农业板块建设相结合。大力发展畜牧业，发挥其对农业、林业和渔业的带动作用；减少渔业对农业、林业、畜牧业发展的依赖，增加其自我积累能力；以林业、畜牧业和渔业的健康发展带动农业的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural comprehensive production capacity is defined as the stable output capability resulting from the agricultural inputs in the certain time period and certain social and economic environment. Agricultural comprehensive production capacity building is the key to revolutionizing agricultural productivity, relieving destruction of natural disaster, avoiding market risks, raising land productivity, enhancing competitiveness of agricultural products and increasing farmers’ income.Calculating and evaluating results show that the agricultural comprehensive production capacity of Hubei province increased in the research period, though not steadily. Unbalance does exist among cropping, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and agriculture brings less and less income to farmers.In the production function of agriculture, the elasticity of labor, capital and land is -1.4862, 0.2819 and 0.506 respectively, and the contribution rate of the three factors to the growth rate of agricultural output value reaches 36.58%, 59.98% and-7.06% each. Hubei agricultural sector needs to decrease the number of labors, increase capital, especially fixed asset investment, and control the fast decreasing trend of agricultural land.In the research period, SFA agricultural technical efficiencies of 17 regions bettered, but their placing order remains unchanged. DEA agricultural technical efficiencies of CRS, VRS and Scale are greater than 0.9. DEA agricultural technical efficiencies are greater than the ones of SFA, but the two are closely related. Hubei agricultural TFP change, technology progress and technical efficiency change arrives 3.6%, 2.9% and 0.6% separately. Agricultural TFP highly depends on technology progress. In agricultural technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency plays a more important role than scale efficiency.Due to poorly proportioned input structure, fiscal support to agriculture has little effects on agricultural output value in the current and lag-one period. The negative elasticity of agricultural loan to farmers’ income is also because of its poor structure. Farmers of Hubei province receive little financial service with high cost and narrow choices.Analysis shows Shiyan, Enshi, Xiangfan, Yichang, Shennongjia, Xianning, Suizhou, Jingmen and Huanggang have a cropping production comparative advantage over the other regions. Xianning, Shennongjia, Shiyan, Huanggang, Huangshi, Enshi, Suizhou, Xiangfan and Xiaogan have a forestry production comparative advantage. Regions having an animal husbandry production comparative advantage are Shennongjia, Enshi, Xiaogan, Suizhou, Tianmen, Xiangfan, Yichang and Qianjiang. Regions having a fishery production comparative advantage are Ezhou, Jingzhou, Xiantao, Qianjiang, Huangshi, Wuhan, Xiaogan, Jingrnen, Tianmen and Huanggang.Production unbalance of agriculture and cropping among the 17 regions relieved, but the unbalance trend of forestry, animal husbandry and fishery remains unclear.Entity fixed effects regression model of agriculture shows spatial pattern of regions has a trivial positive effect on agriculture in Wuhan, Shiyan, Suizhou, Jingrnen, Xiantao, and Tianmen, a medium positive effect in Yichang, Xiangfan, Enshi and Huanggang, but it contributes greatly to agriculture in Jingzhou, Xiaogan, contributes negatively in Huangshi, Qianjiang, Ezhou and Shennongjia.Time fixed effects regression model of agriculture reveals that the macro-environment favored agriculture in a low degree in 1999-2004 and the institutional effect of "socialist new countryside construction" policy needs further observation.Impulse response function analysis shows that output value of cropping, forestry and animal husbandry responds its own one standard deviation innovation greatly. Cropping, forestry and animal husbandry depend highly on their own past accumulations while it is not the case for fishery. One standard deviation innovation from animal husbandry affects the other three sectors greatly and the development of it will benefit the others.Result of variance decomposition finds that cropping affects itself less than the other three sectors do in output value, so is the case with fishery. Increase of forestry and animal husbandry output value depend on their own past accumulations greatly.Advices to build the agricultural comprehensive production Capacity of Hubei province are listed as follows:Extensively develop agricultural resources with land management as the core, intensively develop agriculture by increasing cropping multi-index and land productivity, and adjust agricultural structure timely.Decrease the number of farm labors, increase the share of agricultural fixed asset in capital investment, and stop the trend of agricultural land area shrinkage.Fully realize the cornerstone function of science and technology in agriculture, enhance agricultural TFP growth by technology progress and strengthen agricultural technical efficiency by pure technical efficiency increase. Ensure fiscal support to agriculture in government expenditure stably increase and better its input structure. Reform rural financing service system by transforming agricultural credit cooperative to a share-holding commercial bank and establishing a bank of post which can give farmers loans.Combine agricultural development with regionalization according to the agricultural production comparative advantage of every region.Take animal husbandry development as a priority, strengthen fishery capacity of self accumulation and develop cropping with the help from the other three sectors.更多还原