【作者】 谢建豪；

【导师】 陆红生；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国社会经济的迅速发展，人民生活水平日渐提高，与生活最息息相关的住宅也越来越受到重视。1998年实行住房货币化改革至今已八年多，八年来我国住房市场的迅速发展，形成普通商品房为主体，经济适用房和高档商品房等其他住房为有益补充的住房供应体系，房屋租赁市场和二手房交易市场也逐渐壮大。住房市场的发展伴随着住房价格的一路升高，尤其是2004年以来，房价高速上涨，给人民生活和社会带来诸多不安定因素，因此有必要对住房价格进行深层次的探究。本文基于住房价格的波动，从供给和需求的视角系统分析了影响住房价格波动的因素，得出现阶段我国住房供给相对于需求的不足是住房价格快速上涨的根本原因的结论。由住房价格波动的影响因素和波动的性质入手，将住房价格区分为正常波动和异常波动，提出了住房价格异常波动识别的直接方法和间接方法。利用统计学的相关原理和拉依达准则，找出了确定异常波动范围的方法，提出了异常倾向系数的概念。经过对价格变化的识别，判断价格是否出现异常波动，为政府介入找到突破口。根据房地产市场的成长发育阶段规律和区域性，结合我国现阶段住房市场的实际情况，提出了分区域调控的设想，并在此基础上采取分层次、分阶段调控策略，实现短期和长期两个目标。本文共八章，从结构上可以分为四个部分，内容如下：第一部分是论文的基础部分，包括第一章和第二章。第一章介绍了论文选题的背景，研究的对象和范围，选题的目的，并在简要介绍近年来国内外对于房价影响因素和调控的研究的基础上，进一步明确了研究的主要方向和内容。第二章是结合研究对象，介绍了房地产市场的成长发育阶段规律和区域特征、住房价格的特性及价格形成、住房价格波动与调控等与论文密切相关的基础理论。第二部分包括第三章至第五章。从供给因素、导致需求变动因素以及政策因素等三方面分析了对住房价格波动的影响，重点分析了各影响因素的变动对住房价格波动的影响。第三章研究了房屋供给数量和结构变化对住房价格波动的影响；从影响住房供给变动的土地供给量、土地供给价格、容积率等几方面，研究了供给因素变动对住房价格波动的影响；第四章从购房者的支付能力、人口、消费心理、城市化进程、替代性需求和投资投机需求等几方面论述了导致需求变动的因素对住房价格波动的影响；第五章研究了金融、税收等政策因素及股票市场变化对住房价格波动的影响。第三部分包括第六章和第七章。第六章从住房价格波动的影响因素和波动的性质入手，将住房价格区分为正常波动和异常波动，找到了异常波动识别的直接方法和间接方法，提出了对异常波动范围的确定方法和异常倾向系数的概念，并用变化率法对日本地价变化进行了实例分析；用居民购买力变化法研究了我国1997年以来的价格波动情况。第七章在分析房地产市场中主要的参与主体——政府、开发商和消费者的行为及其在市场中各方的行为博弈，介绍了国外的调控经验的基础上，根据房地产市场的成长发育阶段规律和区域性，结合我国现阶段住房市场的实际情况，提出了分区域调控的设想，并在此基础上采取分层次、分阶段调控策略，实现短期和长期两个目标。最后一部分是第八章，在前面三部分内容的基础上，结合武汉市住房实际情况，分析了武汉市住房价格的异常波动，提出了住房价格调控的对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid developing of society and economy in China, people’s life-level improved day after day. As a necessity that is closed to the people’s lives, the housing got more attentions.It’s more than eight years since the capitalization reform of housing distribution implemented in 1998. In the past eight years, our country’s housing market developed very fast. And the new housing supply system is formed, of which common commodity housing is the main part, the economic suitable housing and the high-level commodity housing are the indispensable complement. At the same time the housing-leasing market and the second-hand building trade market also gradually strengthened.The housing market grow fast accompanied the housing price rising rapidly. Flying housing price, especially after 2004, has brought many unstable factors to people’s lives and society development. Therefore it is necessary for us to study the housing price farther.This article analyses the impact factors of housing price from supply and demand of housing, and draws a conclusion that demand deficiency compared supply is the main reason that caused housing price increasing. From the impact factors and characters of housing price fluctuation, we divide the housing price fluctuation into normal fluctuation and abnormal fluctuation, and put forward direct methods and indirect methods of distinguishing abnormal fluctuation of housing price. Based on the statistics theories and Pauta rule, we find the method of ascertaining the abnormal fluctuation scope, and bring forward conception of abnormal fluctuation tendency coefficient. After studying housing price changing, we can distinguish whether the abnormal fluctuation appeared, and find optimum opportunity for government to regulate housing price.According to the growing stage law and region characters of real estate market, we put forward the idea of regulation by region on the basis of our country’s present housing market situation. We can regulate the housing price by different level and different steps to achieve shot-term and long-term purposes.This article is composed of eight chapters aggregately and divided into four parts on structure. The contents are as followed:The first part is the paper’s foundation, including the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter briefly introduces research background, research object and scope, and research purpose. On the basis of domestic and overseas research result of housing price influencing factors and regulations, we clarify the studying field and content further. The second chapter introduces some correlated basic theories, such as growing stage law, region characters of real estate market, housing price characters, forming and fluctuation of housing price and real estate market regulation etc.The second part includes the third chapter, the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter. This part analyses those factors that influence housing price fluctuating from three aspects: supply factors, demand factors and other factors, and emphasizes the influence of influenced factors changing to housing price fluctuation. The third chapter has studied housing price fluctuation relation of housing supply quantity and supply structure, land supply quantity, land supply price and so on. The fourth chapter discusses some factors influenced housing price fluctuation from demand aspect. Those factors that influenced market demand including payment ability, population, expense psychology, urbanization, substitution demands and investment demand and so on. The fifth chapter has studied the influence of financial policy, revenue policy as well as the stock market to the housing price fluctuation.The third part includes the sixth chapter and the seventh chapter. In the sixth chapter, from the impact factors and characters of housing price fluctuation, we divide housing price fluctuation into normal fluctuation and abnormal fluctuation, and put forward direct methods and indirect methods of distinguishing abnormal fluctuation of housing price, and also bring forward conception of abnormal fluctuation tendency coefficient. Analyze land price fluctuation in Japan by changing rate method and study housing price fluctuation in our country from 1997 by resident’s purchasing changing method. In the seventh chapter, we put forward the idea of regulation by region on the basis of game playing among government, developer and consumers, overseas regulation experience, real estate market growing law and region characters, and our country’s present housing market situation. We can regulate the housing price by different level and different steps to achieve shot-term and long-term purposes.The last part is the eighth chapter. Based on the front contents, this chapter studies housing price fluctuations in Wuhan, and puts forward countermeasure and the suggestion of Wuhan’s housing price regulation.更多还原