【作者】 蔡银莺；

【导师】 张安录；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 农地价值的货币化计量是资源与环境经济学研究的焦点和难点之一。科学、合理地评估农地价值，尤其是非市场价值，形成完整的资源成本核算体系，一方面不仅能够弥补市场机制作用不足给农地城市流转决策带来的影响，而且通过提高农地的比较效益，可以缓解我国农地流失的形势；另一方面，可以修订和完善我国当前的农地分等定级成果，为制定和实施农地生态保护政策，实行开发和保护并举的农业生产方针，确定农地城市流转的生态损失、农地保护的补偿机制等方面提供理论与实践依据。湖北省是我国著名的商品粮棉油基地，对其农地生态与农地价值的关系研究对于全国的粮食安全、长江水域生态系统和两湖平原湿地生态系统的保护有着重要的现实意义，为协调地区经济发展和农地保护的现实关系、探寻两者的均衡提供重要的决策依据。论文以湖北省为研究范围，通过对城市区域、江汉平原、鄂中丘陵、鄂西山地等不同类型地区农地生态背景及土地利用变化效果进行全面调查，查明影响农地价值的主导性生态因子以及农地生态对农地价值的贡献程度；通过设计问卷、入户调查(有效问卷1248份)的方式取得详实、准确的农地经济产出、公众参与农地保护的响应意愿等相关基础数据，运用收益还原法、条件价值评估法分别估算不同类型农地的市场价值和非市场价值，科学地评估农地资源的总价值；科学地揭示湖北省不同区域、不同类型农地的生态特征值的动态变化过程与农地经济产出的互动关系，分析各主导生态因子对农地价值的贡献，揭示农地生态经济系统的快、中、慢变量和序参量，归纳出农地质量和价值变化的关系规律。调查及研究表明：(1)随着农地保护意识的增强，全省平均78.09％的受访居民已经意识到农地资源非市场价值的存在，91.79％的受访居民认为所在地目前需要加强农地保护工作，84.29％的受访居民愿意以捐资或参加义务劳动的方式参与农地保护。(2)运用CVM从居民参与农地保护的支付意愿出发，湖北省居民每年保护农地资源的支付意愿总价值56.5846亿元，折合单位公顷农地非市场价值16893元。并且不同生态类型农地非市场价值的高低与资源禀赋显著相关，资源越丰富、利用优势明显的农地类型，非市场价值愈低；反之，越稀缺的农地，非市场价值较高。在不同类型区域内，同一生态类型农地的非市场价值具有明显的地域差异。进入快速城市化进程、农地生态系统相对脆弱的武汉市的农地非市场价值明显高于农地资源丰富的鄂中丘陵、江汉平原，农地资源稀缺、水土流失严重、农田生态环境较为敏感的鄂西山地农地非市场价值也高于鄂中丘陵、江汉平原。(3)通过对全省不同类型地区896户样本农户在不同的资源禀赋、耕作制度条件下的农业经营资料的调查，获取详实的基础数据，运用收益还原法估算出江汉平原、鄂中丘陵、鄂西山地、武汉市等不同生态类型地区农地的市场价值。研究表明，农地市场价值的高低与地区资源禀赋及耕作制度密切相关。结合农地利用优势度指标分析，研究区利用优势明显的农地资源，其经济产出价值相对较高。诸如，荆门地区水田资源优势明显，为此其水田经济产出价值在不同类型地区中最高；江汉平原地势平坦、水资源丰富，旱地和水域资源具有比较优势，其旱地和水域用地的经济产出价值也明显高于丘陵地区，高于鄂西山地；鄂西山地园地优势明显，其经济产值在不同类型地区中最高。(4)综合收益还原法和条件价值评估法对不同生态类型地区农地价值的估算单价，较为系统、科学地评估出武汉市、江汉平原、荆门、宜昌、湖北省五个典型研究区现有农地资源的总价值，摸清农地资源的价值构成及其比例份额。估算结果表明，湖北省现有包括耕地、园地、林地、水域在内的农地资源的非市场价值达2456.23亿元，是全省2004年生产总值的40.67％。其中，水田、旱地、园地和水域的非市场价值在其资源价值构成中的贡献分别为8.54％、10.14％、13.64％和5.48％。非市场价值在资源总价值中的比例份额与地区经济发展水平、农地生态环境密切相关，与农地资源禀赋相关。在农地资源流失速度较快、农地生态系统脆弱、景观破碎度较高的特大城市，其农地资源非市场价值所占比例份额较高；农地生态环境敏感、资源相对稀缺的鄂西山地，其农地非市场价值的比例份额也明显高于资源相对丰富、生态环境较好的鄂中丘陵和江汉平原。从农地类型分析，越稀缺的农地资源，其非市场价值所占的比例份额越高，农地非市场价值与资源禀赋呈负相关关系。(5)对近年来武汉、江汉平原、荆门、宜昌、湖北省五个典型研究地区农地资源景观变化及其价值变动进行分析。研究结果表明，近年来随着工业化、城市化进程的推进，湖北省耕地资源的流失速度加快，耕地资源价值损失442.53亿元，相当于2004年全省农业生产总值1020.09亿元的47.05％。同期受生态退耕及农业结构调整政策影响，园地、林地及水域用地呈增加趋势，为此全省农地资源的非市场价值增加7.53亿元。(6)运用Logit和多元线性回归模型分析了武汉、江汉平原、荆门、宜昌、湖北省受访居民参与农地保护的响应意愿及支付数额的影响因素，分析结果表明，环境态度、影响预期、年龄、性别、收入、劳动力状况等社会经济信息对受访居民参与农地保护的响应意愿具有显著的影响，符合经济学理论，CVM的可靠性得到较好的验证。(7)通过对江汉平原、鄂中丘陵、鄂西山地等不同类型地区农地生态与农地市场价值的研究，表明在同一区域范围内农地经济产出的高低主要取决于耕作制度、资源禀赋及灌溉保收条件。将水稻和小麦分别作为水田和旱地的基准作物，通过对湖北省58个市县水稻及小麦单产与其相关生态因子进行主成分分析，研究表明不同生态类型区域内基本农田建设情况、地区人均土地资源禀赋及地貌特征、光温生产潜力等是影响水田市场价值高低的主导性生态因子，影响早地的主导性生态因子仅有土地资源禀赋及气候生产潜力通过显著性检验。通过对湖北省70多个市县水稻和小麦单位产量的聚类分析，研究结果表明，不同类型地区农地的市场价值呈明显的地域分域规律。水田的市场价值呈现出由平原中心向丘陵及最外围山地依次递减的趋势，旱地的市场价值呈丘陵向平原及最外围山地递减的趋势。(8)通过对江汉平原、鄂中丘陵、鄂西山地等不同类型区域农地生态与农地非市场价值的比较分析，研究表明在不同生态环境、资源禀赋、经济发展阶段地区的受访居民对各类型农地的偏好有明显的差异。从农地类型分析，居民普遍对当前流失速度较快的耕地资源保护意愿最强；从生态类型区域分析，生态环境敏感、脆弱、景观破碎度较大的城市、鄂西山地受访居民的支付意愿和维护改善农地资源的受偿意愿明显高于生态环境状况相对较好的江汉平原和鄂中丘陵。(9)将农地资源非市场价值的估算结果与Constanza等的研究结果比较，结果表明在我国目前的经济水平下，耕地资源非市场价值的估算结果与Constanza等1997年的估算结果较为接近，水域用地则相对较低。从区域分析，武汉市当前耕地、林地的非市场价值与Constanza的研究结果最接近。估算结果有一定的借鉴和参考价值。研究的基础上，作者相应提出了组建农地保护的民间平台，增强农地保护的公众监管机制；增设农地保护专项补贴政策，激励农民保护农地的积极性；界定基本农田保护的价值内涵，建立区域基本农田保护补偿机制；构建农地保护的生态补偿标准及绿色国民核算体系等相关政策建议。并探讨论文在农地生态类型选择、价值评估方法等方面存在的局限与不足，对未来需要进一步深化的研究进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural land provides not only food and fibre, but also different non-market commodities, with characteristics of externalities or public good. For example, agricultural land provides a variety of important environmental and social services including climate adjust, wildlife habitat, waste treatment, recreational opportunities, food security and so on. Because most of these services are public goods, the non-market value of agricultural land preservation cannot be directly obtained from market prices. So estimating the value of agricultural land is one of the focuses in the field of resources and environmental economics. It is very important to study the relationships between agricultural land ecological characteristics and value. On the one hand, it can not only provide the service for rural-urban land decision-making, but also delay the decrease in agricultural land. On the other hand, evaluating the value of agricultural land can reinforce and improve the content of agricultural land grade, can provide the important function for agricultural land management.Hubei province is an important nationwide production base of grain, cotton and oil. So the research is very important to the food security in our country. And it also can protect the ecological system of Yangtze Rive; protect the ecological system of wetland in Jianghan plain; reconcile the conflicts between agricultural land protection and economic growth. The dissertation selects Hubei province as the basic point of research and studies in the different eco-regions, such as metropolis, Jianghan plain, the Middle Hilly Areas, the west mountain areas of Hubei Province. In this paper, there are three objectives. Firstly, through investigating the land use change and the characteristics of agricultural land in these regions, analyzing the main ecological factors which influencing the values of agricultural lands. Secondly, according to the results of statistical analyze of 1248 valid questionnaires, using the contingent valuation method (CVM) and income approach to evaluate the non-market values and market values of different ecotype agricultural lands in different eco-regions. Thirdly, comparing the results of values of different ecotype agricultural land in different regions, and making a summary of the relationships between agricultural land ecological characteristics and the value of agricultural land. The research results are as follows:Firstly, it shows that the residents (including farmers and urban citizens) have cognized the non-market values of agricultural land base with the increase in agricultural land protection cognitions. According to the survey, about 78.09% of the respondents have realized the non-market values of agricultural land, recently 91.79% of the respondents have considered agricultural land protection as an urgent work in their region, and about 84.29% of the respondents have positive WTP to the protection of agricultural lands.Secondly, in this paper, using CVM to estimate the value to local households of preserving different ecotype agricultural lands, such as cultivated land, horticultural land, forest and wetland. according to the residents willingness to pays for protecting local agricultural lands, the total economic values of preserving agricultural land are 56.5846×10~8 RMB Yuan every year, almost the non-market value of cultivated land is 16893 RMB Yuan per hectare. And the non-market value of different ecotype agricultural land is correlated with the endowment of agricultural land resources. When an agricultural land is abundant, its non-market value is lower than the agricultural land which is scarce. Whereas, when one type of agricultural land is scarce, and its non-market value is higher than other kinds of lands. In the different eco-regions, the non-market value of the same type of agricultural land is also different. The non-market value of Wuhan where has entered into the process of rapid urbanization and characterized with ecologically fragile is higher than Jianghan plain and the Middle Hilly Areas of Hubei Province, where have more agricultural land than Wuhan. The mountain areas of western Hubei Province, where agricultural land is scarce and its ecosystem are sensitive. And the non-market value of agricultural land in the west mountain areas of Hubei Province is higher than Jianghan plain and the Middle Hilly Areas of Hubei Province.Thirdly, based on the responses of 896 valid questionnaires of households, we got the detailed and actual data which reflected the inputs and outputs of agricultural production. And according to it, using income approach to evaluate the different type of agricultural land in wuhan, in Jianghan plain, in the Middle Hilly Area of Hubei province, and in the west mountain areas of Hubei province. The result shows that the market value of agricultural land is related to the endowment of agricultural land and the system of farming.Fourthly, integrating the results of CVM and income approach, we can evaluate the total value of different type of agricultural lands in Wuhan, Hubei Province, Jinmen, Yuchang and Hubei province. Nowadays, the total non-market values of agricultural lands are 2456.23×10~8 Yuan, which including cultivated land, horticultural land, forest and wetland. It is almost 40.67% of the whole province’s GDP in 2004. Among that, the proportion of paddy field, dry cultivated land, horticultural land and wetland’s non-market value in their total value is 8.54%、10.14%、13.64% and 5.48%. The non-market value is an important part of agricultural land resource values. The proportion of non-market value is related to the region’s level of economic development, its ecological and environmental condition, and the endowment of agricultural land. The region with rapidly speed of agricultural land loss and fragile ecological system of agricultural land, its proportion of agricultural land’s non-market value is higher than the proportions of those regions where have more agricultural land. And when the type of land is scarce, its proportion of non-market value is higher than the proportion of the agricultural land is abundant.Fifthly, in this paper, the author analyzes the agricultural land use change and its value change in recent years.It shows that the loss of cultivated land is increasing in the rapid process of urbanization and industrialization. The value of cultivated land in whole province loss 442.53×10~8 Yuan, it is almost 47.05% of the agricultural GDP in 2004. However, influencing by the policy of ecological restoration and agricultural structure adjustment, the areas of forest, horticultural land and wetland are increasing, so the non-market value of agricultural land adds 7.53×10~8 Yuan in Hubei province.Sixthly, we use Logit model and regressive equation model to analyze the related factors which influencing the respondents will and payments for preseving agricultural lands. Socio-economic variables of the respondents such as environmental attitude, anticipation of agricultural land loss, age, sex, income and family labors significantly influence the willing of respondents and the values of the WTP. This is consistent with the economic theory and verifies the reliability of the CVM.Seventhly, the relationships between agricultural land ecological characteristics and.. its market value in different eco-regions have showed that in the same region the market value is depended on the system of farming, the endowment of agricultural land and the condition of irrigation. Take the rice as the norm crop of paddy field, the wheat as the basic crop of dry cultivated land, using Grey incidence analysis to evaluate the properties of the outputs of paddy fields and dry fields. And it shows that, the endowment of agricultural land, the construction of agricultural land, land form and the photo-temperature productivity of rice are the main ecological factors which influencing the outputs of paddy fields. However, only has Climate Productivity and the endowment of agricultural land significantly influenced the outputs of dry fields. Cluster analysis also shows that the market values of different eco-regions are being diversity. The output of paddy fields is decrease from plain to hill, to mountain. And the output of dry field is decrease from hill, plain, to mountain.Eighthly, comparing the different eco-regions’ respondents’ willingness to pays for preserving agricultural lands and the non-market values of different agricultural lands, it shows that the residents’ WTPs and will are different with ecological conditions, the endowment of agricultural land and the level of economic development of region. Among different ecotype of agricultural lands, the respondents" willingness to pays for preserving cultivated land is stronger than other agricultural lands. And in the eco-regions where with rapidly speed of agricultural land loss and fragile ecological system of agricultural land, or with scarce agricultural land and its ecosystem is sensitive, the respondents" willingness to pays for preservation agricultural lands or willingness to accepts for improving the agricultural lands are more higher than those respondents" willingness to pays or willingness to accepts, where agricultural land is more abundant and its ecosystem is better. For example, it is showed that at metropolis or in the west mountain areas of Hubei Province, respondents" average WTP or WTA is higher than the average WTP or WTA in Jianghan plain and the Middle Hilly Areas of Hubei Province.Lastly, comparing the findings with that of Constanza’s, whose research by evaluating the value of global ecosystem services in 1997 were very authoritative. In his research, the ecosystem services’ value of cultivated land was 92 dollar per hectare per year, the ecosystem service’ value of forest was 302 dollar per hectare per year, and the wetland’s service value was 8498 dollar per hectare per year. And through the comparison, it shows that the non-market value of cultivated land is close to Constanza’s value of cultivated land ecosystem service. However, the non-market value of wetland is six to one for his research. The non-market value of agricultural land at metropolis is close to Constanza’s services’ value of agricultural land at globe. So we can see that the non-market value is correlated to the level of economic development.At the end of the dissertation, some suggestions for rational preservation and utilization of agricultural land were put forward. These actions are to improve the supervision mechanism for preserving agricultural land, to set up agricultural land protection fund, to analyses the value of basic farmlands and to put forward to form compensation mechanism for preserve agricultural land. At the end of this paper, the author discusses some issues which come from the valuation methods and the limits of data, points out the future work for this research.更多还原