【作者】 李文义；

【导师】 许士国；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 近30年来，随着社会经济的发展，中国水资源供求矛盾日趋尖锐；特别是在北方地区，形势更为严峻；水资源短缺不仅影响到了经济发展，还造成许多严重的生态环境问题。为了缓解水资源危机，人们在对有限的水资源进行优化配置的同时，也在想方设法进行开源节流。在此形势下，洪水逐渐被人们纳入水资源开源的行列。尽管洪水自身具有淡水资源的属性，但与一般水资源不同，洪水可能给人们带来经济损失，因而洪水又不是传统意义上的水资源。洪水资源具有可利用性已经成为当前学术界的共识，相关研究也已经开展起来，并取得了一定成果。但已有洪水资源利用的研究多是以水库为对象，研究其汛限水位调整来实现。而对缺乏建立水利枢纽的平原地区，洪水资源利用的研究相对较少。本文以松嫩平原为背景，结合嫩江下游的径流特点，对平原地区的洪水资源利用的相关问题进行了分析研究，主要内容如下：(1)以河流水资源为研究对象，从维护河流生态平衡和量化洪水资源的角度出发，提出了河流水资源结构分解模型。将河流水资源划分为生态水量、安全水量、风险水量和灾害水量四部分。并根据各类水量的功能和特点，确定了其不同的计算方法，该理论为量化洪水资源，实现洪水资源利用提供理论依据。(2)在河流水资源结构分解的基础上，提出河段水资源结构分解模型，进而提出了河段洪水资源量计算方法。该模型能够对河段洪水资源量值进行评价，在资料充分的情况下可对整个流域干支流洪水资源状况进行评价。(3)综合考虑需求、可蓄水量以及蓄水时可承受的风险等因素，提出了平原地区洪水资源利用蓄水模型，将洪水利用状况划分为全蓄型和分蓄型。根据蓄水区蓄水前后防洪能力的变化，提出模型应用风险分析标准及其评估方法。(4)径流预报在安全利用洪水资源、降低利用风险方面具有重要作用。利用Mike 11软件对嫩江江桥至大赉站洪水模拟，通过对历史实测流量的模拟建立了洪水预报模型。所建立的模型较好地模拟了嫩江的实际情况，可以以此模型对大赉站进行洪水模拟，为嫩江下游洪水资源利用提供有益的信息和依据。(5)针对平原地区洪水资源利用的可能风险以及收益，建立洪水资源利用的风险效益评估模型。运用该模型对松嫩平原实现洪水资源利用分析，结果显示，洪水资源利用能够带来可观的效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1980s, with the development of the social economy, the water crisis has been appearing in many regions in China. Especially at the North of China, the status is more serious. The water shortage not only affects the socioeconomic development, but brings many ecological environment problems. The austere water resources crisis compels people to find resolutions to alter this status. Thus rational arrangement the limited water resources become the first selection, and the broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure of the water is taken into account at the same time. Under this case, the flood water is bringing into the exploitable object. Despite the flood water possesses the property of the water resources, it has the special characteristics different with the common water resources, sometimes which can bring impossible economic losses for the society, as a result the flood water is not the traditional water resources. It has been realized by the academe that flood water can be utilized under certain conditions. And correlation researches have been carried out aiming at the reservoir; many research productions have been obtained for controlling the limited elevation of reservoir. These theory and method have significant importance on the reservoir utilization to realize the application of flood water. However, in some regions, such as the plain country, there is a lack of natural conditions to build reservoirs. The existing theory and method about the application of flood water are not appropriate for such areas. In order to address this issue, this paper presents the new means to realize the application of flood water in the Songnen Plain country. The major contents and research results are as follows:(1) At the point of the river ecosystem balance, river water utilization and flood protection, the theory of the River Water Structure(RWS) can be introduced. The method divides the whole volume of river water into four parts: namely environment water portion (EWP), safety water portion(SWP), risk water portion(RWP) and disaster water portion (DWP). The limit boundaries between the different water portions are the vital factors in the RWS, which can be determined by different methods according to the function and characteristic of different water portions. This theory can quantitatively classify river flood water, and which can provide theoretical source for utilization the flood water.(2) Basing on the theory of the RWS, the river reach RWS model is presented out. Then the calculation methods of flood runoff are put forward, which can evaluate the quantity of the fiver reach flood runoff. And the flood runoff of the whole fiver basin can be evaluated if the fundamental data is sufficient. (3) Basing on the river water resources structural division, the impounding model of utilization flood water for plain region is proposed. Considering the water requirement, potential impoundage and the degree of risk, two modes of the flood water utilization are developed, full impounding and partial impounding. The assessment method of the risk is put forward according to variation of the flood storage capacity before and after impounding water.(4) The runoff forecasting has the important action for utilization the flood water and reducing the flood risk at the same time. Making Use of the software(Mike 11) to simulate the flood hydrograph between the Jiangqiao and Dalai hydrological station, the flood forecasting model can be developed by simulating the course of the measured discharge. This model has a high accuracy standard, which can better simulate the flood course of the Nenjiang River. Many helpful information can be provided be by simulating the flood course of the Dalai hydrological station, which can be acted as the decision parameters during the course of utilization the flood water.(5) Aiming at the risk losses and possible profits during the course of utilization the flood water, the risk-return analysis model can be presented. Using this model to analyze the effect of utilization flood water in Songnen Plain, the results indicate that utilization flood water can bring considerable economic profits for this region.更多还原