【作者】 狄乾斌；

【导师】 韩增林；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着陆地资源紧缺、人口膨胀、环境恶化等问题的日益严峻,海洋开发程度不断加大并且不断出现新的领域,海洋在国民经济与社会发展中居于越来越重要的战略地位。我国海洋资源潜力巨大,海洋经济一直保持快速增长速度,但在经济快速增长的同时也存在资源浪费、环境污染、掠夺式经营等问题。为避免海洋开发中可能出现的无序状态,保证海洋经济、海洋资源利用与海洋环境保护的协调统一,必须走海洋经济可持续发展之路。海洋经济可持续发展涉及社会、经济、资源和环境等众多因素,是一个庞大的生态-经济-社会复杂系统,既包括技术层次面的问题,也有管理措施层次面的问题,还有评价和协调方面的问题,要在一项研究中全面解决系统内的所有问题几乎是不可能的。以前的研究大多偏重于海洋经济可持续发展的某方面,或海洋资源的可持续利用,或海洋经济产业某部门的可持续发展,或海洋开发管理的政策措施,且多以定性研究为主,难以真正把握海洋经济的可持续发展。本文在总结参考前人研究成果的基础上,以可持续发展理论为指导,运用系统科学思想,经济地理学、系统动力学和模型分析等研究方法对海洋经济可持续发展进行了定性与定量研究。具体研究内容如下:第一章为绪论部分。主要阐述本文研究背景与意义,以及介绍本文的研究结构与创新点。第二章为研究基础部分。主要评述了目前有关海洋经济发展研究进展、可持续发展研究进展、可持续发展研究的地理学视角与贡献等。在此基础上,提出海洋经济可持续发展的科学定义与内涵,并分析了影响海洋经济可持续发展的相关因素。第三章为海洋经济可持续发展的理论基础部分。以可持续发展理论为指导,基于系统科学的思想,从海洋经济可持续发展的复杂性、系统性、协调性、生态约束途径等方面,探讨了海洋经济可持续发展的运行机理。首先分析了海洋经济可持续发展的复合生态系统特征;其次通过分析海洋经济可持续发展的制约因素,探讨海洋经济可持续发展系统的结构与特征,在分析系统动力学与海洋经济可持续发展研究的关系基础上,基于STELLA系统仿真建模软件建立了海洋经济可持续发展系统动力学模型;再次,通过对协调发展概念及内涵的论述,探讨了海洋经济可持续发展系统协调性的定量描述方法;最后,通过海洋经济可持续发展生态约束关系的分析,基于承载力相关研究成果,提出了海域承载力的内涵与概念模型,并论述了海域承载力与海洋经济可持续发展间的关系。第四章为海洋经济可持续发展评价指标体系部分。在分析指标体系的功能与内涵的基础上,总结了目前可持续发展与海洋经济可持续发展研究中指标体系的相关成果,从系统角度论述了海洋经济可持续发展指标体系的特征,提出评价指标体系的构建原则,设计了包含海洋资源环境系统、海洋经济系统和社会发展系统三个子系统的海洋经济可持续发展评价指标体系框架,并讨论了指标筛选与赋权方法。第五章为海洋经济可持续发展研究方法部分。首先在借鉴区域可持续发展理论的基础上,构建了“海洋经济可持续发展”的概念模型,分析了海洋经济可持续发展系统的发展轨迹,总结可持续发展研究的模型分析方法,提出“海洋经济可持续发展度”的评价方法;其次,从投入产出角度,提出了基于可持续发展的海洋经济投出产出研究方法,并讨论在可持续发展背景下的海洋经济投入产出表的编制方法。第六章为实证研究。以中国海洋统计年鉴数据为基础,运用前述章节的理论、方法与模型对辽宁省海洋经济可持续发展问题进行实证研究。首先对辽宁省海洋资源特点、海洋经济发展现状以及产业结构特征进行分析比较;其次,构建辽宁省海洋经济可持续发展的评价指标体系,运用海洋经济可持续发展度的研究方法对辽宁省海洋经济可持续发展进行评价,编制海洋经济可持续发展水平评价标准谱系和海洋生态-经济-社会可持续发展系统耦合评判标准谱系,探讨辽宁省海洋经济可持续发展水平和海洋生态-经济-社会系统耦合关系;再次,通过构建辽宁省海域承载力状态空间,对辽宁省海域承载力的进行判断,探讨基于海域承载力的辽宁省海洋经济可持续发展问题;接着,依据基于海洋经济可持续发展的海洋经济投入产出模型,利用辽宁省2002年投入产出数据表,编制了辽宁省海洋经济投入表并进行了相应分析,探讨了辽宁省海洋产业优化问题;最后,依据分析结果,提出提高辽宁省海域承载力实现海洋经济可持续发展的途径与对策。第七章为总结与展望部分。对全文进行了总结回顾并指出了进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the condition that land resources are scarce, population is expanding and environment is worsening day by day, the degree of ocean exploitation is enlarging and new domains are appearing. Ocean stays in more and more important strategic status in national economy and social development. Our country marine resource potential is enormous and marine economy always keeps a fast increasing speed. But with marine economy rising fast, there are many problems of resource wasting, environment polluting and plunderous manage. In order to avoid the disordered state which may appears in ocean exploitation and ensure marine economy, marine resource use and marine environment protection coordinated unification, the strategy of marine economy sustainable development(MESD in short, similarly hereinafter) must be taken.Involving a lot of factors such as society, economy, resource and environment, MESD is a huge ecology-economy-society complex system. It involves the questions of technical, management, appraisal and harmony and so on. So it is impossible to solve all questions in one research. Beforehand research is mostly inclined to some aspects of MESD such as sustainable utilization of marine resources, some marine industry sustainable development and management policies so on. This research is qualitative primarily and can not assurance MESD. Based on before research results, taking the theory of sustainable development as instruction, utilizing the system science thought and the methods of economic geography, system dynamics and model analysis, this article carries on qualitative and quantitative study on MESD. The concrete research content is as follows.First chapter is the part of introduction. This article mainly explains studying background and significance and introduces research structure and innovation spots. Second chapter is the part of research foundation. This article mainly narrates the researching progress of marine economy development and sustainable development and also sums up geography’s contribution to sustainable development research. Under this foundation, this article puts forward the science definition and connotation of MESD and analyzes the factors of influencing MESD.Third chapter is the part of rationale of MESD. Being guided by sustainable development theory,based on the thought of system science, from the angles of complexity, systematic, coordinative, ecology restraint way, this article discusses the operation mechanism of MESD. Firstly, this part analyzes the compound ecosystem characteristic. Secondly, through analyzing the restriction factor, this article discusses the system structure and characteristic and designs the system dynamic model of MESD by the software of STELLA in the foundation of analyzing the relation of system dynamics and MESD. Then, this article discusses the quantification method of MESD system coordination through recounting the concept and connotation of coordinating development. Lastly, though analyzing ecology restraint relations of MESD, based on the correlative research of carrying capacity, this article puts forward the connotation and concept model of marine regional carrying capacity and discusses the relationship of marine regional carrying capacity and MESD.Fourth chapter is the part of appraisal index system of MESD. Under the foundation of analyzing the index system’s function and connotation, this article summarizes the present research results of index system in sustainable development and MESD and discusses the characteristic of MESD’s index system from the angle of system. Then , this article puts forward the principle of founding the index system and designs the appraisal index system involving the system of marine resource and environment, the system of marine economy and the system of social development system. Lastly, this article also discusses the method of selecting index and giving weigh.Fifth chapter is the part of research methods of MESD. First, on the base of region sustainable development, this article forms the concept model of MESD and analyzes the system developing path of MESD. Then, this article summarizes the model analyzing methods and brings forward the way of degree of MESD. Lastly, from the angle of input-output, this article puts forward the method of marine economy input-output based on sustainable development and discusses the way of conceiving the table of marine economy input-output.Sixth chapter is the part of case. On base of the date which is in china marine statistical yearbook and the theory, method and model above, this article studies the problem of MESD in Liaoning province. First, this article carries out analytical comparison on marine resource characteristic, marine economy present situation and marine industrial structure characteristic in Liaoning. Second, this article constructs the appraisal index system of MESD in Liaoning and appraises it by the method of the degree of MESD. This article also establishes the evaluative criteria system of MESD and system coupling of marine ecology-economy-society sustainable development, discusses the level of MESD in Liaoning and the relation of marine ecology-economy-society sustainable development system coupling. Third, this article founds the state space of marine region carrying capacity, estimates marine region carrying capacity in Liaoning and discusses the problem of MESD in Liaoning based on marine region carrying capacity. Then, based on the model of marine economy input-output, utilizing the date of input-output tables of Liaoning in 2002, this article forms marine economy input-output tables of Liaoning and carries on the corresponding analysis, discusses the optimization problem of marine industry. Last, based on the analysis result, this article proposes the way and countermeasure of improving marine region carrying capacity and realizing MESD of Liaoning.Seventh chapter is the part of summary and prospect. This article carries on the summary and review to the whole text and points out further studied direction.更多还原