【作者】 徐小玲；

【导师】 延军平；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着人类社会经济活动与全球变化的加剧，生态脆弱区的生态环境脆弱性显著增强，极大地制约了区域社会经济的发展。生态脆弱区与贫困地区的经济发展与生态建设实践需要互动双赢。作为典型的生态敏感区和特殊的生态功能区，三江源地区是影响全国甚至世界生态安全的“生态阀”，是我国经济发展水平最滞后的地区，生态恶化形势严峻，生态难民逐年增多，人口、资源、环境与发展之间的矛盾日益突出。开展三江源地区生态脆弱变化及经济与生态互动研究，探讨该区生态环境演变规律、人类活动的影响、经济发展与生态建设的互动机制、互动模式、产业政策等问题，具有重大的学术价值与实践意义。应用实测数据、实地入户调查数据和统计资料，运用Excel、SPSS软件和图表分析法、多元回归方法、主成分分析、灰色关联分析和判别函数、问卷调查分析、定性与定量相结合等方法，分析三江源地区生态变化特征，模拟径流量变化并分析其人为影响程度，评价各县的生态脆弱度、贫困程度、人类活动强度及三者之间的互动程度并判别其互动关系类型，探讨经济与生态互动机制、互动发展模式。通过分析研究，得出了以下几点有意义的结论：（1）近47年来三江源地区气温呈升高趋势，降水量呈减少趋势，蒸发量呈微弱减少趋势，不同时间尺度上气候变化趋势不同。平均升温率为0.0195℃／a，升温0.7℃。冷季和暖季分别升温0.8℃和0.5℃，冷季升温贡献率达61.54％。气温由外向内递减。降水量平均递减率为0.4449mm／a，减少28.8mm。干季降水量平均递增率为0.3436mm／a，湿季降水量平均递减率为0.459mm／a。湿季降水减少贡献率达92.55％。降水量由东南向西北递减。蒸发量平均递减率为0.635mm／a。干湿季蒸发量平均递减率分别为0.6471mm／a和0.3815mm／a，湿季蒸发减少贡献率70.15％。蒸发量在长江、澜沧江源区由西南向东北递减，黄河源区由北向南递减。近47年气候趋于暖湿，90年代以来气候趋于暖干，近5年来气候趋于暖湿。（2）根据径流量累积曲线，1982年以前人类活动对径流量的影响较小。用多元线性回归模拟径流量，1958～1982年黄河沿和吉迈年径流量模型分别为y=87.6827+0.0129x₁+3.2988x₂-0.0615x₃、y=164.8666+0.076x₁+4.6895x₂-0.116x₃（x₁、x₂、x₃分别为源区黄河流域年平均降水量、气温、蒸发量），唐乃亥、直门达月径流量模型分别为y=44.969+2.4826x₁-0.059x₂-0.2293x₃、y=13.634+1.0854x₁+0.0965x₂-0.1203x₃（x₁、x₂、x₃分别为兴海／玉树县月平均气温、降水量、蒸发量）。1983年后人类活动对径流的影响程度具有增大趋势，吉迈和唐乃亥人为影响程度都低于50％，黄河沿多数年份人为影响程度为50％～80％，表明黄河源区影响径流量变化的主导因素在东部是自然因素，西部是人为因素，即径流量的人为影响存在西强东弱的区域差异，越靠近源头地区经流量的人为影响越强烈。（3）通过主成分分析法评价三江源地区各县生态脆弱度、贫困程度和人类活动强度，脆弱度从外围向中部增强，贫困程度长江、澜沧江源区由西南向东北减弱，黄河源区由中部向周围增强，人类活动强度长江、澜沧江源区由东南向西北减弱，黄河源区由东北向西南减弱。玛多、称多、曲麻莱3县属极度脆弱型（脆弱度0.8～1.0），治多、甘德、玛沁3县属强度脆弱型（0.6～0.8），泽库、达日、杂多3县为中度脆弱型（0.4～0.6），同德、久治、河南、兴海、班玛5县为轻度脆弱型（0.1～0.4），玉树、囊谦2县为微度脆弱型（－0.2～0.1）。杂多1县属极度贫困型（贫困程度0.5～0.6），达日、治多、称多、泽库4县属强度贫困型（0.4～0.5），甘德、曲麻莱2县属中度贫困型（0.3～0.4），囊谦、同德、河南、兴海、班玛5县属轻度贫困型（0.2～0.3），久治、玉树、玛多、玛沁4县属微度贫困型（－0.6～0.2）。同德、玛沁、泽库、兴海4县属人类活动极强型（活动强度1.4～0.8），河南、班玛、玉树3县属人类活动很强型（0.8～0.5），甘德、久治、囊谦3县属人类活动较强型（0.5～0.4），称多、玛多、达日3县属人类活动较弱型（0.4～0.2），曲麻莱、杂多、治多3县属人类活动微弱型（0.2～－0.1）。（4）初步探讨了生态与经济的互动发展关系等有关理论问题，提出了互动发展观、互动链、互动圈、互动网、平衡互动等新概念。从多角度对互动类型作了划分，对生态与经济互动发展的路径、阶段、动力、条件、途径等互动结构作了比较系统的研究，其中两者的互动途径主要包括产业互动、制度互动和投入互动。（5）根据三江源地区各县生态脆弱度与贫困程度、人类活动强度的互动程度判别函数C_xy=（x+y）／（x²+y²）^1／2（x、y分别为生态脆弱度、贫困程度、人类活动强度），结果表明它们之间呈较强的负向互动关系。生态脆弱性与贫困性的互动关系类型，玛沁、玛多2县属脆弱不协调型，囊谦1县属贫困不协调型，其他13县属极不协调型；人类活动强度与贫困性的互动关系类型，玛沁、玛多2县属人为干扰贫困型，治多1县属自然贫困型，其他13县属人为加剧贫困型；生态脆弱性与人类活动强度的互动关系类型，囊谦1县属人为干扰脆弱型，治多1县属自然脆弱型，其余14县属人为加剧脆弱型。（6）三江源地区需要建立起产业置换与生态置换机制、社会化投融资与多元经营机制、生态补偿与利益驱动机制、信息技术传递和公众参与机制、生态与经济综合决策机制、区域互动与创新机制等经济发展与生态建设的互动机制。生态与经济互动发展的“制度政策创新+区域互动+生态工程+社会协调+产业置换”三江源模式为：以政府体制调整和制度政策与组织管理机制创新以及科学的规划设计为互动节点，以生态产业为互动纽带，通过社会化投融资和系列政策支持，加强与西宁、拉萨、格尔木的区域合作互动，形成以该区为中心、以3市为顶点的三角形互动网络，实施生态移民、生态补偿、生态购买等系列生态工程，实现生态资本产权化和生态建设产业化发展，加强后续产业开发、职业技能培训、小城镇与基础设施和社会化服务体系建设，加大信息技术传递力度，促进技术创新，实现产业置换和产业生态化改造，发展区域特色生态产业，由区域互动与投入互动到制度互动再到产业互动，实现生态与经济的良性互动发展。（7）依托长江、黄河、澜沧江沿线、唐蕃古道旅游专线（214国道）和世界屋脊汽车探险旅游线（109国道），加强沿线小城镇建设，培育空间或产业增长极，形成“三江两线”交叉型经济发展格局。开发地区特色优势资源，积极培育和发展生态旅游业，以中藏药材业、畜产品加工业、特色种植业、草业、绿色食品业、水产养殖业为代表的特色生物产业，以民族手工业、民族商贸业、民族文化业为代表的民族产业，以矿产、沼气、水电、太阳能、风能开发为代表的生态能源业，建立起独具地方特色的生态经济体系。创新点：（1）三江源地区原本是人类影响较弱的区域，但近年来人为影响加剧，本文通过模拟黄河源区天然径流量，评价其人为影响程度，认为东部人为影响程度低于50％，西部人为影响程度一般在50％～80％。（2）通过对互动结构的系统研究，提出了互动发展观、互动链、互动圈、互动网、平衡互动等新概念。（3）通过对三江源地区的区域环境与发展水平的系统分析，评价了生态脆弱度、贫困程度与人类活动强度的互动度，并判别三者间的互动关系类型，认为该区生态与经济及人类活动间存在较强的负向互动关系，急需建立生态与经济的良性互动机制和互动模式。（4）通过区域结构分析，根据环状分布特点以及周边三大城市的三角形辐射环境，提出了生态与经济互动发展的三江源模式与“三江两线”交叉型特色生态经济的发展格局。更多还原

【Abstract】 With human social and economic activities and global change intensifying, the ecological environmental vulnerability increased notably in ecological vulnerability area, which restricted regional development of society and economy. The practice of economic development and ecological construction needs interacting and win-wining in ecological vulnerability areas and depressed areas. As a typical ecological sensitive area and peculiar ecological function area, Sanjiangyuan Region is "Ecological Valve" influenced ecological security of our country even the world and the most laggard region of economic development level in our country, while the condition of ecological deterioration is austere, ecological refugees are more and more year by year, the contradiction of population, resources, environment and development is outstanding increasingly. So there are great scientific value and practical significance to carry out research on ecological vulnerability change and interaction of economy and ecology, to discuss ecological environmental evolvement laws and man-made influence, interaction mechanism, model and industry policies of economic development and ecological construction in Sanjiangyuan Region.Using practical measurement data and statistical data, applying the methods, such as Excel and SPSS software, figure and table analysis, multi-regression analysis, Principal Component Analysis, Grey Relation Analysis and differentiation function and so on, to analyze ecological change characteristics, to imitate runoff change and analyze man-made influence degree on it, to assess ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity of every county and analyze interaction degree and interaction relationship types between them, to discuss interaction mechanism and model of economy and ecology in Sanjiangyuan Region. Through analysis and research, the following several important conclusions are gotten:（1） Temperature has increase trend, precipitation has decrease trend and evaporation has faint decrease trend and climate has different change trend in different period in Sanjiangyuan Region in the recent 47 years. Average temperature increase rate is 0.0195 centigrade per year and it increased by 0.7 centigrade. Temperature increased by 0.8 and 0.5 centigrade respectively in cold and warm season. Contribution rate in temperature increase is 61.54 percent in cold season. Temperature decreased successively from the periphery to the central section. Average precipitation decrease rate is 0.4449 millimeters per year and it reduced by 28.8 millimeters. Average precipitation increase rate is 0.3436 millimeters per year in arid season and average precipitation decrease rate is 0.459 millimeters per year in humid season. Contribution rate in precipitation decrease is 92.55 percent in humid season. Precipitation reduced successively from the southeast to the northwest. Average evaporation decrease rate is 0.635 millimeters per year, 0.6471 and 0.3815 millimeters per year respectively in arid and humid season. Evaporation reduced successively from the southwest to the northeast in the source region of Yangtze River and from the north to the south in the source of Yellow River. Climate has warm and humid trend in the recent 47 years, warm and arid trend since 1990s’ and warm and humid trend in the recent 5 years.（2） According to the cumulation curve of runoff, human activities influenced lightly on runoff before 1982. Runoff is imitated through multi- linear regression, the model of runoff in the year of Huangheyan and Jimai are y=87.6827+0.0129x₁+3.2988x₂—0.0615x3, y=164.8666+0.076X₁+4.6895x₂—0.116x₃ respectively （x₁, x₂ and x₃ are average precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the year respectively in the source drainage basin of Yellow River）, the model of runoff in the month of Tangnaihai and Zhimenda are y=44.969+2.4826X₁—0.059x₂—0.2293x₃, y =13.634+1.0854x₁ +0.0965x₂—0.1203x₃ respectively （x₁ x₂ and x₃ are average temperature, precipitation and evaporation in the month respectively in Xinghai / Yushu county）. The influence degree of human activities on runoff had increase trend after 1983. The influence degrees of human activities are all under 50 percent in Jimai and Tangnaihai and from 50 percent to 80 percent in Huangheyan in most year, which indicated that the magistral factor which influenced runoff change is natural factor in the east and artificial factor in the west in the source of Yellow River.（3）The ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity of every county are assessed. Ecological vulnerability degree increased successively from the periphery to the middle part. Poverty degree decreased successively from the south to the north and from the west to the east in the source of Yangtze River and increased successively from the central section to the periphery in the source of Yellow River. Human activity intensity decreased successively from the northeast to the southwest in the source of Yangtze River and from the southeast to the northwest in the source of Yellow River. Ecological environment of Maduo, Chengduo and Qumalai three counties belongs to exceeding vulnerability （ecological vulnerability degrees are from 0.8 to 1.0）, Zhiduo, Gande and Maqin three counties belongs to intense vulnerability （0.6～0.8）, Zeku, Dari and Zaduo three counties belongs to moderate vulnerability （0.4～0.6）, Tongde, Jiuzhi, Henan, Xinghai and Banma five counties belongs to low-grade vulnerability （0.1～0.4）, Yushu and Nangqian two counties belongs to slender vulnerability （-0.2～0.1）. Economic development level of Zaduo one county belongs to exceeding poverty （poverty degree is from 0.5 to 0.6）, Dari, Zhiduo, Chengduo and Zeku four counties belongs to intense poverty （0.4～0.5）, Gande and Qumalai two counties belongs to moderate poverty （0.3～0.4）, Nangqian, Tongde, Henan, Xinghai and Banma five counties belongs to low-grade poverty （0.2～0.3）, Jiuzhi, Yushu, Maduo and Maqin four counties belongs to slender poverty （-0.6～0.2）. Human activities of Tongde, Maqin, Zeku and Xinghai four counties belong to exceeding fierceness （human activity intensities are from 1.4 to 0.8）, Henan, Banma and Yushu three counties belong to intense fierceness （0.8～0.5）, Gande, Jiuzhi and Nangqian three counties belong to moderate fierceness （0.5～0.4）, Chengduo, Maduo and Dari three counties belong to feeblish fierceness （0.4～0.2）, Qumalai, Zaduo and Zhiduo three counties belong to slender fierceness （0.2～0.1）.（4）The academic problems on interaction development relationship of ecology and economy are discussed primarily and the new conceptions are put forward, such as interaction development idea, interaction chain, interaction circle, interaction network and balanceable interaction and so on. The types of interaction are compartmentalized from different angles and the interaction structure is researched such as the route, phases, motivity, conditions and approaches of interaction development relationship of ecology and economy, interaction approaches include mostly industrial interaction, system interaction and devotion interaction.（5） The differentiation function of interaction degree of ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity Cxy=（x+Y）/ （x and y are ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity respectively） is built. It indicated that there is strong negative interaction relationship between them. The interaction relationship type of ecological vulnerability and poverty of Maqin and Maduo two counties belongs to vulnerable non-harmony, Nangqian one county belongs to poor non-harmony and another 13 counties belongs to exceeding non-harmony. The interaction relationship type of human activity intensity and poverty of Maqian and Maduo two counties belongs to man-made interferential poverty, Zhiduo one county belongs to natural poverty and another 13 counties belongs to man-made exacerbating poverty. The interaction relationship type of ecological vulnerability and human activity intensity of Nangqian one county belongs to man-made interferential vulnerability, Zhiduo one county belongs to natural vulnerability and another 14 counties belongs to man-made exacerbating vulnerability.（6） It need setting up interaction mechanisms of economic development and ecological construction, such as mechanisms of industry replacement and ecology replacement, social investment and financing and multi-management, ecological compensation and benefit-driving, transfer of information and technologies and public participation, synthetical decision-making of ecology and economy and regional interaction. The interaction development Sanjiangyuan pattern of ecology and economy namely "innovation of system and policies + regional interaction + ecological engineering + social harmony + industry replacement": to take adjustment of system, innovation of system, policies and mechanism of organization and management and scientific programming as interaction nodes, ecological industries as interaction tache, through social investment and financing and sustainment of series of policies, to reinforce regional interaction with Xining, Lhasa and Ge’ermu to form triangle interaction network in which Sanjiangyuan is the center and the three cities are culminations, to carry out series of ecological engineering such as ecology immigration, ecological compensation and ecological purchase and so on, to realize property right of ecological capital and industrialization development of ecological construction, to reinforce exploiture of continuous industries and construction of small towns, infrastructure and social service system and cultivation of employment skill, to increase the transfer power of information and technologies to accelerate innovation of technologies to realize industries replacement and ecological alteration of industries, to develop regional characteristic ecological industries, from devotion interaction to system interaction to industries interaction, to realize benign interaction development of ecology and economy.（7） To rely on the line of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River, special tourism line of age-old Tangbo road （namely 214 national highway） and car exploration tourism line of the world fastigium （namely 109 national highway） to reinforce construction of small towns along the lines to foster spatial or industrial increase poles to form economic development pattern of "The three rivers and two lines" crossover. To empolder regional characteristic preponderant resources to foster and develop ecological tourism industry, characteristic biological industries such as industry of Chinese traditional and Tibet medicinal materials, processing industry of livestock products, characteristic planting industry, grass industry, green foodstuff industry and aquiculture industry, nationality industries such as nationality handicraft industry, nationality trade and nationality culture industry, ecological energy sources industries such as exploiture of mineral, firedamp, enhydrous electricity, solar energy and wind energy, to set up regional characteristic ecological economy system.Innovation points: （1）Through imitation inartificial runoff in the source of Yellow River and assessment man-made influence degree on it, man-made influence degree is lower than 50 percent in the east, and from 50 to 80 percent in the west.（2）Through research on interaction structure, the new conceptions are put forward, such as interaction development idea, interaction chain, interaction circle, interaction network and balanceable interaction.（3） Through analysis of regional environment and development level of Sanjiangyuan Region, interaction degree of ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity is assessed and interaction relationship type between them is differentiated, there are strong negative interaction relationship between ecology and economy and human activities and it needs to set up positive interaction mechanism and pattern.（4） Through analysis of regional structure, according to the characteristic of orbicular distribution and the triangular radiation environment of the three circumjacent cities, interaction development Sanjiangyuan pattern of ecology and economy and characteristic ecological economic development pattern of "The three rivers and two lines" crossover.interaction mechanism interaction degree ecological vulnerability change Sanjiangyuan pattern Sanjiangyuan RegionFoundation: Great "Gong Guan" Project on Philosophy and Social Science of Education Ministry "Research on Economic Development and Ecological Environmental Reconstruction in the West", No. 04JZD00010更多还原