【作者】 刘晓琼；

【导师】 刘彦随； 延军平；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 榆林市地处晋陕蒙能源金三角的中心腹地，这里矿产资源极其丰富，每平方米地块平均蕴藏6t煤，100m~3天然气，140t盐，被美誉为“中国的科威特”，是我国重要的能源战略后备基地。但是它属于我国北方农牧业交错区，是我国水土流失和风沙危害最严重的地区之一，所辖1区11县均为国家水土保持重点县。资源的非可再生性，水资源短缺的“瓶颈”制约，区域生态环境的极度脆弱性，加之多年来粗放型的资源开发使得榆林市生态、经济、社会价值损失巨大。因此，以榆林市为典型区，研究能源开发对区域生态环境、经济社会发展以及对水资源造成的影响，并结合实际，探讨调控对策具有十分重要的理论意义和实践意义。本文遵照党的“科学发展观”思想，坚持“五个统筹”的发展战略，本着陕西省“十一五”规划基本思路中做强陕北能源化工基地的基本构想。以生态脆弱区能源优化开发为目的，综合运用数理统计、入户调查、小波分析，以及层次分析等方法，针对生态环境脆弱的榆林市能源开发利用问题，就该市能源开发引发的生态环境问题，能源开发对区域水资源和区域产业发展的影响，以及能源开发与地方社会经济互动发展等方面的问题进行了深入、细致地研究，力求在理论和实用两方面有所创新。取得了以下研究成果：(1)1974～2004年31年间，榆林市气候暖干化趋势明显。年平均气温增加的线性倾向值为0.0438℃／a，显著高于全国平均增温率0.004℃／a，也高于全球平均增温率0.006℃／a；年平均降水量在剧烈的波动变化中趋于减少，降水量减少的线性倾向值为0.678mm／a。总体而言，榆林市气候变化的增暖幅度显著高于全国水平而变干幅度则有所不及。(2)大规模能源开发以后，能源富集的北部地区多数县生态环境的脆弱性明显增加。目前，榆林市能源开发主要集中于北部6县(区)，北部地区中除了榆阳区外，其余五县生态环境脆弱度增大，特别是神木和靖边两县。北部地区生态环境脆弱度的平均值分别由1985年的0.438增加至2004年的0.535。与南部地区相比，北部6县(区)的生态环境脆弱度值增加更快。另外，2004年榆林市神木、榆阳、靖边三个资源开发强度较大的县(区)生态环境脆弱度值居于前三位，均能在相当程度上说明大规模能源开发对区域生态环境脆弱度增强贡献不容忽视。(3)榆林市能源强度开发的县(区)，其县域经济发展综合指数与生态环境脆弱度之间呈现出明显的反相关关系。2004年，榆林市神木县、榆阳区、靖边县依次是榆林市县域经济发展综合评价中排名前3的县(区)，同年，这三个县(区)在全市生态环境脆弱度评价中的排名也依次居于前3。可见榆林市大规模的能源开发在提升县域经济发展水平的同时，也对生态环境造成了极大的破坏，导致该市生态环境脆弱度的增加。(4)榆林市水资源严重短缺且利用率低，故应结合区域产业结构调整，压缩榆林市农业用水，特别是粮食作物的播种面积。1999～2005年，榆林市农业用水占总用水量的比率为82.83％，其中农田灌溉用水占总用水量地比率为74.89％，而全市农田灌溉系数平均值仅为0.4，可见农业用水数量庞大而低效。鉴于此，极有必要借区域农业产业结构调整和升级之机，在推行粮食自给有余、牧业经济为主、林果经济为辅的农业发展方针的同时，压缩榆林市粮食作物的播种面积，积极发展节水抗旱的杂粮农业和草产业。(5)窟野河实测径流量的演变具有一定的阶段性。窟野河多年实测径流量变化的小波分析结果表明，窟野河年平均径流量的演化过程(1950～2004年)可划分为三个阶段。第一个阶段为：1950～1982年，变化周期为32年；第二个阶段为：1983～1999年，变化周期为16年；第三个阶段为2000年及其之后年份，该周期的变化时间仍在持续。三个阶段窟野河平均径流量分别为7.18万m~3、4.83万m~3、1.93万m~3，这三个阶段窟野河径流量有依次下降的趋势。(6)人为活动影响对窟野河径流量的减流作用明显。窟野河天然径流量的恢复结果说明，1974～1985年，窟野河人为活动影响程度的平均值为-11.32％，1986～2004年，这个值增加到8.95％；1974～1985年之间窟野河平均径流量分别为6.282万m~3，1986～2004年，窟野河的平均径流量减少至3.937万m~3。可见，在1986年窟野河流域能源大规模开发前后，人为活动影响对窟野河径流量的减流作用明显。(7)人为活动影响特别是窟野河流域神府煤田的煤炭开发及其规模的扩大是导致河流径流量锐减的主要原因。小波分析结果表明，窟野河径流量的突变时间发生在1982年、1998年，而流域气温、降水量的突变时间发生在1991年。径流量变化与气候变化突变时间的不同步性，以及窟野河天然径流量的恢复结果和流域典型矿井煤矿产量的连年骤增的现象均证实了窟野河流域神府煤田的煤炭开发及其规模的扩大是导致河流径流量锐减的主要原因。(8)结合区域能源开发利用实际情况，以及本文前几章的相关研究成果和基于AHP的榆林市可持续发展评价结果，构建了优化调控生态脆弱区能源开发利用的模式——榆林模式。以期为榆林市该市及其它资源型城市能源矿产资源的理性开发利用提供相关参考。本研究力求在以下几方面有所创新：(1)在理论上，通过探讨生态脆弱化背景下，榆林市水资源短缺对区域能源开发的“瓶颈”制约，结合榆林市粗放型资源开发—生态环境响应—经济社会发展三者之间互动关系的集成分析，尝试性地构建了生态脆弱区能源开发利用的优化调控模式——榆林模式，以期为该市能源优化开发提供参考。(2)在方法上，运用小波分析和河流天然径流量恢复的方法证实了窟野河流域神府煤田的煤炭开发及其规模的扩大是导致河流径流量锐减的主要原因。小波分析结果表明，窟野河径流量的突变时间发生在1982年、1998年，而流域气温、降水量的突变时间发生在1991年。径流量变化与气候变化突变时间的不同步性，以及窟野河天然径流量的恢复结果和流域典型矿井煤矿产量连年骤增的现象均证实了这一点。(3)在研究内容上，通过对比分析榆林市县域经济发展综合评价结果，以及生态环境脆弱性评价的结果，发现能源强开发区其县域经济发展综合指数与生态环境脆弱度之间呈现出明显的反相关关系。2004年，榆林市神木县、榆阳区、靖边县依次是榆林市县域经济发展综合评价中排名前3的县(区)，同年，这三个县(区)在全市生态环境脆弱度评价中的排名也依次居于前3。可见榆林市大规模的能源开发在提升县域经济发展水平的同时，也对生态环境造成了极大的破坏，导致该市生态环境脆弱度的增加。(4)此外，在研究内容上，还通过分析榆林市各产业部门用水动态变化，认为应当大力压缩榆林市粮食作物的播种面积，以提高农业用水效率。1999～2005年，榆林市农业用水占总用水量的比率为82.83％，其中农田灌溉用水占总用水量地比率为74.89％，而全市农田灌溉系数平均值仅为0.4，可见农业用水数量庞大而低效。鉴于此，极有必要借区域农业产业结构调整和升级之机，在推行粮食自给有余、牧业经济为主、林果经济为辅的农业发展方针的同时，压缩榆林市粮食作物的播种面积，积极发展节水抗旱的杂粮农业和草产业。本研究得到如下项目资助：国家重点基础研究计划(项目批准号：2006CB400505)、教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“西部经济发展与生态环境重建研究”(项目批准号：04JZD00010)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大研究项目“陕甘宁老区生态脱贫途径研究”(项目批准号：05JJD770013)更多还原

【Abstract】 Yulin city is located in the hinterland of the energy golden triangle, that is the contiguous areas on Shanxi, Shaanxi province and the Inner Mongolian autonomous region, the mineral resources here are extremely abundant, there are 6t coal, 100m~3 natural gas, 140t salt in each square meter, therefore it was praised as" Kuwait of China". Yulin city is an important strategic reserve base of energy. However, Yulin is situated at the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in north china, it’s soil and water loss and land desertification are very seriously, all the 1 area 11 counties are the key areas of the soil and water conservation throughout our country. The resources non-reproducibility, water resource scarcity, the extreme vulnerability of area ecological environment, and the extensive exploration caused the great loss of regional ecology, economic and society. Therefore, take Yulin as the typical area, by combining with the actual situation, to carry out the research on the influence between energy exploration and the region ecological environment, energy exploration and the economic society development as well as water resource has the extremely very important theory and practical meaning.The paper obeys the "science development view" and "five overall plans", which were put forward in the third plenary session of the sixteenth central committee, and basic mentality of eleventh five-year plan to strengthen three pillar industry, and the four base, such as North Shaanxi energy chemical industry base. By utilizing mathematical statistic method, synthesis weighing method, residence investigation method, analytic hierarchy process, as well as wavelet methods to exhaustively studied the ecological environment questions, which were caused by the extensive exploration, it’s influence on regional water resources and industrial harmony development, and the questions about the interaction between energy exploitation and social economy development of Yulin city. Take the optimal exploitation of energy as the goal, striving to have the innovation in the theory and the practical two aspects, through careful research. The paper had obtained the following the research results:(1) During 1974～2004 years period, the warming and drying trend climate tendency is obvious in Yulin city. The linear tendency value increases of annual mean temperature is 0.0438℃/a, obviously, it is higher than national average warming rate 0.004℃/a, also is higher than global average warming rate 0.006℃/a; The annual mean precipitation tends to reduce in the fierce undulation change, the linear tendency value which the precipitation reduces is 0.678mm/a. Overall, in Yulin city, the increasing scope in the climatic warming is obviously higher than the national leve -1, but the corresponding scope in drought does not have the same extent.(2) With the scale expansion in energy exploitation, the vulnerable degrees of Yulin city increased. Compared with 1985, the vulnerable degrees of Yulin city present the enhancement tendency in 2004. The number of the most vulnerable countries increase fromlin 1985 to 4 in 2004, while the number of mild vulnerable countries decrease from 3 in 1985 to 2 in 2004. The whole vulnerable degrees of Yulin city increase from 0.459 in 1985 to 0.532 in 2004; in the north sand and grass region, which energy exploitation is more concentrated than the south region, the vulnerable degrees increase from0.438 in 1985 to 0.535 in 2004; in loess hilly-gully region, the vulnerable degrees increase from 0.481 in 1985 to 0.53 in 2004.(3) In the north sand and grass region, which energy exploitation is more concent-rated than the south region, the correlation between development indexes of country ec -onomy and the vulnerable degrees are negative. In 2004, as far as the level of econo -my development is concerned, Yuyang district, Shenmu country, Jingbian country are top three countries, however, the vulnerable degrees of those countries t are top three as well. Obviously, the large-scale energy exploitation accelerate the economy development, at the same time, destructed the regional eco-environment badly.(4) Yulin city facing severe shortage in water resource, unifying the region industri -al structure adjustment, the Grain crops sown area should be reduced. During 1999～2005 period, the mean irrigation percentage is 82.83%, but mean irrigation coef -ficient value is 0.4 in whole Yulin city, all those data tell that the quantity of agricultu -ral water use is huge, but it’s efficiency is low. Therefore, it is necessary to take the advantage of the agriculture industrial structure adjustment and the promotion in Yulin city, at the same time, reducing the Grain crops sown area, developing the fruit industr -y economy moderately, developing the saving water and drought-resistant miscellany -eous grains agriculture and the grass industry positively.(5) The Kuye river actual amount of runoff evolution has certain phases. The wavelet analysis result of the Kuye River indicated that it’s multi-annual mean amount of runoff change division is three stages, the first stage is: 1950～1982 period, the second stage is: 1983～1999 period, and the third stage started in 2000. In three different stage, the average amount of Kuye River runoff respectively is 71,800 cubic meter, 48,300 cubic meters 19,300 cubic meters, three stage Kuye River amount of runoff tends to reduce.(6) The artificial activity that affects the Kuye river amount of runoff reduces flows the function is obvious. The runoff restoration result of the Kuye River showed that, the extensive energy exploitation and the scale expand in Kuye River basin reduced the runoff amount clearly. During 1974～1985, the mean artificial influence value is-11.32%, while ,during 1986～2004, this value is 8.95%; During 1974～1985, the runoff amount is 62,820 m~3, during 1986～2004, the runoff amount reduces to 39,370m~3.(7) The artificial activity, especially, the extensive energy exploitation and the scale expanding are the main reasons which reduced the amount of river runoff. The results of wavelet analysis and river runoff restoration indicated that, The abrupt change time of Kuye River occurred in 1982 and 1998 respectively, while the abrupt change time of the annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation of Kuye River basin occurred in 1991. This difference proved this conclusion.(8) Combing the actual situation of regional energy exploitation, the series research, and the appraisal result of sustainable development based on AHP, the author constructed the optimal control pattern---Yulin pattern, in order to provide the corresponding reference to rational resource exploitation in Yulin city and other resource-based city.This research striving to have the innovation in following several aspects:(1) From theories, through discussing the water resource shortage during energy exploitation under vulnerable background, combing the actual situation of Yulin city, the paper has constructed the optimal control pattern---Yulin pattern, which is suitable to the regions with abundant resources, meanwhile, it’s ecological environment is vulnerable wondrously, in order to provide the reference for the optimal exploitation.(2) From the technical means, though adopting restoration of the natural runoff amount of Kuye River and wavelet analysis method confirmed that the extensive energy exploitation and the scale expanding are the main reasons which reduced the amount of river runoff in Kuye River basin. The results of wavelet analysis and river runoff restoration indicated that, The abrupt change time of Kuye River occurred in 1982 and 1998 respectively, while the abrupt change time of the annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation of Kuye River basin occurred in 1991. This difference proved this conclusion.(3) From the content, comparative analysis of assessments of eco-environmental vulnerabilities and county economy development shows that the correlation between development index of county economy and the vulnerable degrees are negative. In 2004, as far as the level of economy development is concerned, Yuyang district, Shenmu country, Jingbian country are top three countries, however, the vulnerable degrees of those countries t are top three as well. Obviously, the large-scale energy exploitation accelerate the economy development, at the same time, destructed the regional eco-environment badly.(4) Moreover, from the content, the Grain crops sown area should be reduced, to enhance the agricultural water-using efficiency. During 1999～2005 period, the mean irrigation percentage is 82.83%, but mean irrigation coefficient value is 0.4 in whole Yulin city, all those data tell that the quantity of agricultural water use is huge, but it’s efficiency is low. Therefore, it is necessary to take the advantage of the agriculture industrial structure adjustment and the promotion in Yulin city, at the same time, reducing the Grain crops sown area, developing the fruit industry economy moderately, developing the saving water and drought-resistant miscellaneous grains agriculture and the grass industry positively.Vulnerable eco-regions Energy exploitation Water resource scarcity Optimal control Yulin cityThis research is subsidized by the following project:Country key basic research plan (project authorization number: 2006CB400505), Ministry of Education philosophy social sciences research important issue attack project "west economical development and ecological environment reconstruction research" (project authorization number: 04JZD00010), the Ministry of Education Humanities Social sciences Key Research Base significant research project "The research on getting rid of poverty from ecology in ShaanGanNingxia Revolutionary Region" (the project authorization number: 05JJD770013)更多还原