【作者】 路正南；

【导师】 韩之俊；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 现代经济增长本质上以产业结构变动为核心，经济增长与产业结构具有相互依赖的关系。产业结构历来就是专家学者的研究重点。本文对三次产业的结构优化和竞争力评价进行研究，并以江苏省为例进行实证分析。本文共分五章。第一章，绪论。主要阐述本文的研究背景、理论依据和现实意义、研究主题、方法及结构安排。第二章，基于系统动力学的三次产业经济系统研究。首先，对江苏省三次产业进行因果关系的流程分析，建立系统动力学模型并测定模型所需要的各种参数；其次，分析和预测三次产业经济系统的运行状态。在预测的过程中，利用球面极坐标变换和圆极坐标变换分别对三次产业投资比例和积累率的历史数据进行预处理后，再利用统计软件SPSS 12.0进行拟合；最后，利用固定资产投资的积累率和三次产业的固定资产投资比例进行灵敏度分析，提出了一个较好的三次产业经济的资源分配方案。第三章，基于控制论的三次产业经济系统研究。尽管系统动力学可以研究复杂的非线性经济系统，该方法仍然存在着不能对经济系统进行符合预定目的的控制的缺陷，比如，经济系统的稳定控制、在出现外部干扰时的目标跟踪控制以及在跟踪预期输入目标时追求经济系统输入量消耗最小的控制问题等。本章利用系统控制论的方法实现了三次产业经济系统的状态反馈控制、在出现外部干扰状态下跟踪输入目标的鲁棒控制以及跟踪预期输入目标时追求经济系统输入量消耗最小的最优控制等问题。首先，建立了一个非线性的三次产业经济系统，再利用局部线性化对该非线性系统进行线性化而得到一个描述经济系统短期经济行为的线性系统模型，认为可以用该线性系统模型来研究三次产业经济系统的短期运行方式；其次，针对所建线性系统的不稳定性，利用状态反馈控制的方法实现该系统的稳定控制。在系统处于外部干扰的状态下，为了使系统仍能稳定地跟踪预期的目标，本文采用了鲁棒控制方法。为了跟踪有限时间内的经济发展的预期目标，同时使得系统在跟踪的过程中输入的控制量消耗最少，本文利用了二次型最优控制理论。第四章，基于产业竞争力评价理论和方法的工业行业竞争力评价研究。主要是从定量的角度去分析同一个区域内工业行业的竞争力。首先，分析国内外区域产业竞争力的研究动向和比较成熟的竞争力评价方法；其次，选择尽可能反映产业竞争力的评价指标体系，利用因子分析方法对这些指标进行梳理，确定比较合适的指标来评价江苏省工业行业竞争力的综合得分；最后，利用聚类分析的方法，对江苏省工业行业竞争力进行分类，分析各工业行业的优势和劣势并给出政策建议。第五章，基于产业政策的江苏省产业结构优化及提升产业竞争力的政策建议研究。主要是分析江苏省产业结构调整乏力的原因，提出产业结构优化及提升产业竞争力的对策建议。本文的创新点主要有：利用系统动力学的方法研究了江苏省三次产业经济系统。首先，把三次产业的GDP在三个产业之间的流动看成一个系统，并对这个系统进行因果关系的流程分析，建立系统动力学模型；其次，利用固定资产投资的积累率和三次产业的固定资产投资比例进行灵敏度分析，提出一个较好的三次产业经济的资源分配方案。利用现代控制论的方法研究了三次产业经济系统的状态反馈控制问题。该状态反馈控制问题的分析思路是：利用局部线性化，将非线性三次产业经济系统进行线性化后得到一个线性系统，该线性系统可以描述非线性系统在短期内的经济行为。因此，该线性系统可以模拟产业经济系统在短期内的运行状态。如果确定了非线性系统在某段特定时期的运行轨迹，而该段时期也已经分成几个合适的短期，则产业经济系统在每一个短期的运行状态就是可知的，因此，可以在每一个短期内对线性系统施加反馈控制，使得线性系统能在每个适当的短期稳定地达到预期的的运行状态。利用现代控制论的方法研究了三次产业经济系统的目标跟踪控制问题。在每个适当的短期内，施控者总是希望线性系统在跟踪预期目标的同时能使得系统消耗的输入量尽可能小。为此，本文利用了二次型最优控制理论解决了这个问题。利用现代控制论的方法研究了三次产业经济系统的鲁棒控制问题。运用线性系统进行预期目标的跟踪时，可能会出现受到系统外界干扰因素的影响而造成目标跟踪的偏差问题。为此，本文利用了鲁棒控制原理对系统施加控制，使得系统能在外部干扰的情况下很好地捕获到所要跟踪的预期目标。利用因子分析和聚类分析的方法研究了江苏省工业行业竞争力。构建了产业竞争力的评价指标体系，运用因子分析法确定比较合适的指标来评价江苏省工业行业竞争力，再利用聚类分析的方法，对江苏省工业行业竞争力进行分类，分析工业行业的优势和劣势并给出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Essentially, the change of industrial structure is the core of modern economic growth. Meanwhile, the economic growth and the industrial structure depend on each other. Researches on the industrial structure always are focused on by many experts. This paper studies the optimizations and the competitive power appraisal of the industrial structure, and takes the industrial structure of Jiangsu Province as the example to carry on the real diagnosis analysis. This paper is divided into five sections.In the first section, an introduction on the research background, theory basses, practical significance, research subject, research method and structure arrangement is elaborated.In the second section, a research on the three industrial economic system based on system dynamics is considered. Firstly, the causal relations among three industrial economic sections of Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The system dynamics model of the three industrial economic sections of Jiangsu Province is established and the parameters for this model are surveyed; next, the running states of the given model are analyzed and forecasted. During this process, the spherical polar coordinate transformation and the circle polar coordinate transformation are used to carry on the pretreatment for the historical data about investment ratio and investment accumulation rate of the three industrial sections, and the consequent data also be simulated by statistical software-SPSS12.0; Finally, sensitivity analysis according to investment ratio and the fixed assets investment accumulation rate of the three industrial sections are made and a better resource distribution plan for the three industrial sections also be given.In the third section, a research on the three industrial economic system based on economic cybernetics is considered. Although, the method of the systems dynamics can deal with the complicated nonlinear economic systems, it fails to manipulate economic system according to scheduled objective. For instance, the method of system dynamics can not be used to solve the stability of economic system, target tracking control under the condition of the exterior disturbance and the control question which consume the smallest economic system input to track the anticipated input goal and so on. This chapter realizes the three questions mentioned above by using modern system cybernetics. First, a nonlinear three industrial economic system is established. Used the method of the partial linearization, a linear economic system model that can describe the short-term economic behaviors of the nonlinear three industrial economic system is obtained. The linear economic system model can be used to study the short-term running state of the three industrial economic systems as feasible. Next, in view of instability of the linear system, the method of feedback control can be used to realize the stability of the linear system. Under the condition of the disturbance outside the system, in order to enable the system still track the anticipated goal stably, the robust control method is adopted in the paper. The robust control can accurately catch the anticipated goal. In order to track the anticipated economy development objectives within a vested period, the theory of quadratic optimal control also be used. This method can achieve output which closes to the anticipated objectives at the price of minimum loss of input.In the fourth section, a research on industry competitive power appraisal of the manufactures based on industrial competitive power appraisal theory and method is considered. The industry competitive powers of the different manufactures in the same region are analyzed from the quantitative visual angle. Firstly, the research tendency to the industrial competitive power and the quite mature competitive power assessment method are analyzed; next, as far as possible, the appraisal indexes system of the industrial competitive power is established. The indexes can be used to describe the industrial competitiveness. By using the method of factor analysis, these indexes are refined and the most appropriate indexes are obtained to determinate the synthesis score of the industrial competitive power. Finally, cluster analysis is used to classify the manufactures of Jiangsu province so that the competitive advantages and the disadvantages of Jiangsu province’s manufactures can be discovered and the corresponding political suggestions can be made.In the fifth section, a research on the optimizations and the promotion of industrial competitive power according to the analysis of Jiangsu Province’s industrial structure based on the industrial policy is considered. The industrial structures of the Jiangsu Province are analyzed and the suggestion of the industrial structure optimization is proposed.The innovations in the paper involve the following aspect:A three industrial economic system of the Jiangsu Province based on the method of system dynamics is considered. Firstly, the flow of GDP among the three different industrial sections can be regarded as a system. From the analysis of causality among the three industrial sections, a nonlinear three industrial economic system dynamics model is established. Next, sensitivity analyses according to investment ratio and investment accumulation rate of the three industrial sections are carried on, and a better resource distribution plan for the three industrial sections is also given.The feedback control of the three industrial economic system based on the method of the modern cybernetics theory is considered. The analysis on the non-linear three industries economical system is elaborated as following: Used partial linearization, the nonlinear three industrial economic system can be changed into a linear system. This linear system manifest the economic activities of nonlinear system in short-term. Therefore, the linear system can be used to simulate the running status of industrial economical system in short-term. If the running statuses have been forecasted according to the nonlinear system in a future period and this period also has been divided into several appropriate short periods, a feedback control can be exerted in the linear system, so the linear system can achieve the anticipated running status stably in every suitable short-term.The target tracking control of the three industrial economical system based on the method of the modern cybernetics theory is considered. In every suitable short-term, Policy-makers always hope the consumption of the linear system input is as far as possible small during tracking anticipated target. Therefore, the theory of quadratic optimal control is used in the paper.Robust control of the three industrial economic system based on the method of the modern cybernetics theory is considered. Used the linear system, the influence of the disturbance factor outside the system may cause the system deviate the anticipated target. Therefore, the robust control is used in the paper to let the system catch the anticipated target in the condition of the exterior disturbance. Industrial competitive powers of Jiangsu Province’s manufactures based on the method of the factor analysis and the cluster analysis is considered. As far as possible, the appraisal indexes reflect the industrial competitive powers are established. Industry competitive powers of Jiangsu Province’s manufactures are determined by using the method of the factor analysis. The method of the cluster analysis is also used to carry on the classification to the industrial competitive powers of Jiangsu Province’s manufactures. The superiority and the inferiority of the manufactures are explained and the policy suggestions are given.更多还原