【作者】 史建港；

【导师】 任福田； 陈艳艳；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 大型活动人员密集,需要有效的行人交通组织、管理方案,以提供全过程良好的行人交通服务。否则,容易造成人员的不便,甚至形成安全隐患,发生人身伤害。本文分析大型活动期间行人交通集散特性、行人交通流特性、行人行为特性,发现其中规律,以此通过仿真平台验证,系统的构成大型活动的行人交通组织和规划方法,针对行人交通管理可能遇到的问题,提供有效的交通对策。通过以往国内外大型活动的集散和管理、行人交通流特性、行人行为等方面的分析,发现由于环境条件、社会文化差异等影响,国外已有研究成果并不适合中国的环境特点,有关特性参数与中国的不一致。国内针对行人研究主要在定性的群体性事件管理、建筑防火安全和城市空间规划层面的研究,交通领域缺乏针对大型活动行人交通特性和行为特点的研究。已有的行人交通流参数相对单薄,缺乏系统性的大型活动行人集散、交通流特性、交通行为研究,以及在中国行人交通特性基础上的系统的行人交通组织方法。本研究通过多次现场调查、在全国多个城市发放大量问卷调查等基础上,分析行人的集散特性、交通流特性和行为特性。通过分析构建相应模型,发现其中规律并提出应用的方法建议。研究对大型活动行人构成、集散规律进行分析。按照活动时间的类型,针对观众进散场时间集中类型、观众进散场时间分散型的大型活动,分别构建了行人的到达、散场的集散模型,指出大型活动期间行人流量、累积百分比同时间的分布关系。提出基于场馆座位数量、出口个数的疏散时间预测模型。通过Gini集中度等指标,提供行人集散过程的评价方法,对比了不同组织条件对行人集散过程的影响。行人集散交通流具有趋势性和随机性,研究利用时间序列分析、白噪声分析方法,分析行人集散过程交通流的波动特性,直接为管理方案制定提供量化依据。行人速度是行人的基本交通流特征参数。本研究通过大量实测数据统计分析,研究了行人性别、结伴条件、场地条件、出行目的、场地衔接条件等因素对行人速度的影响,并针对不同场地条件的差异,分析了行人速度-密度-流量关系,建立平地和楼梯环境的行人交通流模型,在此基础上,分析了行人设施的通行能力。针对大型活动排队特点,在实测数据基础上,提出相应排队通道的通行能力。行人设施的服务水平分级直接同行人的交通流特性、行人感受相关,本研究针对中国行人交通流特性和拥挤感受特性,提出服务水平分级划分方法,为各类行人组织方案测试提供合理标准。行人在大型活动期间,不同场地条件下的感受、行为,直接影响活动的组织和效果。本文通过大样本的情境问卷调查,以行人的性别、身高、年龄为影响因素,基于Logit模型,构建拥挤状态下的行人行为模型。分析出行距离、交通环境和信息引导对行人路径选择的影响,构建行人路径选择模型,并针对因素对模型的解释作用进行了验证。在传统交通流指标定量化分析基础上,进而提出以有序度和熵为指标的评价方法,为方案的比选提供依据。在行人交通特性、行为特性的基础研究和仿真应用研究基础上,系统地提出适用于大型活动的组织规划、管理的原则和方法。通过仿真方法对交通特性、管理方案进行测试,最终以奥运场馆的行人交通组织及方案比选为应用实例,进行了规划及评价方法验证。本文在行人集散特性、交通流特性、行为特性及规划评价方法方面的研究成果,为大型活动行人交通组织,提供了基础的数据、规律模型依据和系统分析方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Effective pedestrian traffic management, planning and control are needed in crowded special event, which also needs good pedestrian traffic service in the whole course. Otherwise, pedestrian will meet inconvience and uncomfortable environment. Furthermore, hidden trouble and public safety risk will rise, resulting in injury.To resolve the probable problem of pedestrian traffic during special event, the pedestrian ingress-egress flow, traffic characteristics and behaviours in special events were analyzed. Based on the rule, pedestrian simulation will provide valid comparison parameters. The countermeasure will properly be used in systemic pedestrian management and planning method.According to experience and results on ingress-egress and related management, pedestrian traffic flow characteristics and behaviours, the rules in other countries differ from that of China, for the difference on environment and social customs. Pedestrian researches mostly focus on police control, fire safety and architectural design in China, which is lack of pedestrian traffic characters and behaviors researches in special events in transportation field. The data of pedestrian traffic flow is thin and weak in China comparing the rapid development of society. Systemic researches on pedestrian ingress-egress flow, traffic flow characters and pedestrian behaviors are needed. The pedestrian management method is also in need indeed based on Chinese pedestrian traffic characters.Based on local observation and measurement, SP questionnaire investigation, the new and plenty of Chinese pedestrian ingress-egress character, traffic characteristics and behaviours are analysis and the relationship laws are gotten. The analysis models will be useful for further research and practice.Pedestrian constitution and the ingress-egress rule are analyzed in different special events. In temporal categories, the ingress and egress models for pedestrian flow are built for forecast on pedestrian flow distribution, in which the key criteria of flow rate and accumulative percentage can be gotten. Egress time forecast model was also built based on number of seats and exit gate in venue. Gini assemble indicator can used for evaluation, with illustration on the course under different management conditions. The trend and random characters are analyzed for fluctuation by time serial and white noise method. The research on fluctuation of the pedestrian flow will enrich the quantitive indicators in management and control. Pedestrian speed is a basic parameter in traffic flow characters. The gender, platoon constitutions, walking field, trip purpose and the linked constitution all are influence factors for pedestrian. The speed database is provided by observation and statistical analysis, which is the basement for related works. Pedestrian traffic model among speed, density and flow, are constructed in the flat ground and stairs. The capacity of pedestrian facilities are gotten based on the relationships of the parameters. According to the queue in special events, capacities of related queue channels are provided based on observation.The level of service (LOS) relates to pedestrian traffic flow characters and individual recept deeply. The proper LOS indicators for Chinese pedestrian traffic characteristics were provided according to the disciplines on traffic and recept, which will be the fittable standard for evaluation and comparison.Pedestrian recept and behaviours effect the management directly in special event. Based on plenty of questionnaire in SP survey, the pedestrian behaviours models in crowd are constructed with Logit method, with variables of gender type, height type and age type. The influence of walking distance, traffic environment and information guidance on route choice are also used in pedestrian route choice model, which is tested for valid and precise in illustration on variables.Based on traditional indicators in traffic flow indexes in quantitive analysis, order level and entropy are provided in evaluation method for abundant and systematic comparison rules.Systematic management and planning on design and control, the principles will be the basic guidance for special event with integrated pedestrian traffic characteristics, behaviours and practical simulation methods. Simulation is an effective method on traffic test on management and case comparison, which is also tested for valid based on ingress-egress, traffic flow and behaivour character. The quantitive indicators and planning method were tested based on pedestrian management in Olympic Games directly. The original and primary research results on pedestrian ingress-egress discipline, traffic characters, pedestrian behaivours and evaluation indicators and method, will provide basic indicators, rule, principle and systematic method for special event pedestrian management in China in the future.更多还原