【作者】 刘丹；

【导师】 陈祥伟；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球环境变化研究的深入，人们逐渐认识到土地覆盖变化对其具有重要影响，由此，土地利用／覆盖变化的研究即成为全球环境变化研究的前沿和热点领域，同时也是从自然和社会经济两方面综合研究全球和区域环境变化的突破口之一。选择典型区域，通过各种手段来揭示土地覆盖变化的特征，综合分析土地覆盖变化的自然与人文的动力机制，为更大尺度的土地覆盖变化综合分析乃至全球环境变化研究提供更为丰富而准确的区域信息，成为近年来土地覆盖变化研究的热点。本研究运用“3S”技术、景观生态学理论和统计模型方法，以全球气候变化的敏感区域——黑龙江省为研究对象，通过对研究区的逐日气象数据和NOAA／AVHRR、MODIS／EOS影像数据的分析，研究其土地覆盖的空间格局、组合特征和动态变化情况，讨论研究区土地覆盖格局对气候效应的响应，探讨其土地覆盖变化的主要影响因子，从而在时空尺度上揭示其土地覆盖景观格局变化情况及其主要驱动力，为实现黑龙江区域土地资源的可持续利用和社会经济的可持续发展提供理论参考。主要结论如下：①1961-2003年间黑龙江省气候总体呈变暖趋势。43年来全省平均升温0.88℃，其中冬季升温最明显。升温是以最低气温升高开始的，日平均气温次之，且日较差逐步减小。极端低温事件发生的频率平均以5次／10年的速率下降，而极端高温事件平均以2次／10年的速率上升，特别到1990年代中期以后，平均以5次／10年的速率上升。②省际范围内降水量总体无明显变化，但降水呈增长趋势的测站略多于呈下降趋势的测站。全省绝大多数测站降水频次呈现下降趋势，降水强度有增加的趋势。与气温和降水变化相对应，除寒冷湿润区的相对湿度总体上呈微弱的上升趋势外，其它各气候区的相对湿度均呈缓慢下降趋势。③1993-2003年间，耕地、水域、建筑用地与未利用地面积都有不同程度的增加，而林地和草地面积在减少。10年间土地覆盖变化速度缓慢和极缓慢的地区占90％以上。综合土地覆盖动态度由大到小的顺序依次为：林地、耕地、草地、建筑用地、水域和未利用地。土地覆盖类型相互间的转化突出表现为林地和草地向耕地的转化，以及耕地向林地的转化。10年间各土地覆盖类型的重心发生了不同程度的偏移。其中草地的重心偏移最大，向北偏东偏移了0.32km；水域的重心偏移量最小，向南偏东偏移了0.03km。④运用景观生态学理论研究10年间黑龙江省土地覆盖景观格局的变化，结果表明：在斑块水平上，全省呈现林地、耕地和草地斑块趋于破碎分布，水域、建筑用地和未利用地斑块趋于聚集分布的土地覆盖格局，且2003年的斑块数量均大于1993年，其中草地在这两时期的差异最明显；在景观水平上，2003年黑龙江省土地覆盖景观多样性指数较1993年有所提高，与之相对应，优势度指数明显下降，均匀度指数有所增加，从而导致了土地的破碎程度增加，自然环境的整体结构被打破。同时，黑龙江省2003年的斑块平均形状指数和分形维数小于1993年，自然、半自然状态的景观的形状趋于简单化，区域生态调节作用有所削弱。⑤利用典型相关分析方法，选择了8个表征土地覆盖变化的变量和23个与自然和人文条件有关的变量(其中自然变量着重选取了气候因素)，研究土地覆盖驱动因子的结果表明：黑龙江省土地覆盖变化是在自然因素和人为因素共同作用下形成的，北部受自然因素影响较大，南部受社会驱动因素影响较大。⑥耕地总面积和斑块数的变化受最低气温、国内生产总值和第一产业总产值的影响显著，其中经济驱动因素的影响要大于气候条件的影响；林地总面积和斑块数的变化受最低气温、≥10℃积温和国内生产总值的影响显著，其中受温度的控制大于受经济驱动因素的控制；草地总面积变化和平均斑块面积变化受≥10℃积温、降水频次、总人口数和国内生产总值的影响显著，其中受气候条件的影响大于受社会驱动因素的影响；水域和未利用地面积的变化受国内生产总值的影响显著；建筑用地的斑块密度的变化受国内生产总值和非农业人口数的影响显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 The important influence of land cover change on the global environment is graduallyrecognized as the research on global environment change has been going to depth. So theresearch in land use and cover has become hot points in the field of global environment change.And it is a way to synthetically study global and regional environment change in view ofnature and social economy. Comprehensive analyzing the driving mechanism of the nature andculture on land-cover change not only has become a hot topic in recent years through selectingtypical region and revealing the characteristics land cover change by various means, but alsocan provide more abundant and accurate regional information for further studying large scaleregion and the earth.Situated in Northeastern China, Heilongjiang province is sensitive to global climatechange. In this paper, based on analyzing NOAA/AVHRR and MODIS/EOS images and dailymeteorological data, "3S" technologies, landscape ecology theory and statistical model methodare used to study the spatial pattern, the combination characteristic and the dynamic changes ofland cover in Heilongjiang Province. And at the same time, combining the condition ofsocio-economic development, the effect of climate change on land cover change and its mainimpact factors are discussed to reveal the change condition and its driving force. Accordingly,these studies can provide theoretical basis for achieving sustainable development of regionalland resources in Heilongjiang Province. The main conclusions are as follows.①Air temperature in the whole province has a rising trend in the recent 43 years with arising amplitude of 0.88℃. Major warming characteristic is increase in winter and theminimum air temperature, and then is mean daily temperature. At the same time, the size ofdiurnal range is gradually reduced. Extreme low temperature events are declining by 5 per year,but extreme high temperature events are increasing by 2 per year especially by 5 per year afterthe middle of 1990s.②Although precipitation in the whole province has no marked change, the number ofstations with increasing trend of precipitation is more than that with decreasing trend.Precipitation frequency of most stations has a decreasing trend and precipitation intensity hasan opposite trend. With the corresponding change in temperature and precipitation, relativehumidity in the cold-humidity region has a slight increasing trend as a whole, and that in otherclimate regions has slow decreasing trend.③The area of farmland, water, construction land and unused land has increased indifferent degrees. On the contrary, the area of forest land and grassland is reduced from theyear 1993 to 2003. Area with the slow and extreme slow pace of land-cover changes occupies 90 percent in the 10 years. Comprehensive land cover dynamic degree in the descending orderis forest land, farmland, grassland, construction land, water and unused land. The transformbetween each land cover types mainly represents that forest land and grassland transforms tofarmland and farmland transforms to forest land. The centers of all land cover types have beenmigrated differently in the 10 years. The migrating quantity of center of grassland is the biggestwith 0.32km to eastward from north. The migrating quantity of center of grassland is the leastwith 0.03km to eastward from south.④The landscape pattern change of land cover of Heilongjiang Province in recent 10 yearsis studied using landscape ecology. The results show that the patches of forest land, farmlandand grassland tend to fragment gradually at patches level. The patches of other land cover typestend to be mass. And the quantity of patches in 2003 is bigger than that in 1993. At landscapelevel, the landscape diversity in 2003 increased compared with that in 1993. The evidentdecrease of dominance index and the little increase of evenness index lead to the increase offragment and destroy of integral structure of the natural environment. Mean shape index andmean patch fractal dimension in 2003 is smaller than that in 1993. The landscape shapes innatural and half-natural condition tend to be simplifying. And the controlling effect of regionalecology may be enervated.⑤By using canonical correlation analysis method, 8 variables for indicated land coverchange and 23 variables which relevant to the different nature and humane conditions havingbeen chosen, especially the emphasis was focused on the nature variables. Results showed thatland cover change was caused by the interaction of natural factors and human activities inheiiongjiang province, which was strongly controlled by natural factors in northern and wasstrongly controlled by human activities in southern.⑥The change of total cultivated land area and the number of patches were significantlyinfluenced by the lowest temperature, GDP and the primary industry gross output, especiallyeconomical actuation factor influence was bigger than the climatic conditions. The forestryland area and the number of patches were significantly influenced by the lowest temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature and GDP, in which the lowest temperature factor influencewas bigger than the economic driving factors; The change of total grassland area and theaverage patch size of it were significantly influenced by the≥1.0℃accumulated temperature,frequency of annual precipitation, total population and GDP, especially the impact of climatecondition on it was bigger than the social driving factors; The change of water bodies area andthe unused land area were significantly influenced by GDP. The change of patch diversityabout total built up land were significantly influenced by GDP and the number ofnon-agricultural population.更多还原