【作者】 吴国斌；

【导师】 佘廉；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 进入二十一世纪以来，我国突发公共事件爆发频率越来越高，爆发的规模越来越大。面对突发事件的频发现象，学术界开始关注突发公共事件预警与应急体系的研究。但突发公共事件具有的突然性、灾难性、综合性，使得传统理论基础上的预警与应急体系在预测、控制和处置上具有较大的难度(Richard Choularton，2001)。Merle Jacob和Tomas Hellstrom(2003)的研究表明，对突发公共事件发生机理的认知将极大地影响突发事件的处理和控制效率。因此，本文期望通过对突发公共事件扩散机理的研究，为突发公共事件预警系统提供理论基础。因三峡水利枢纽而形成的三峡坝区，不仅具有众所周知的防洪、发电、航运、旅游等综合功能，还因其自然环境和人工环境的巨大变迁，而极易诱发突发公共事件。坝区一旦爆发突发公共事件，可能导致社会连锁响应，其结果可能产生社会性恐慌事件，并可演化成区域性社会危机甚至是国家危机。三峡坝区的典型性使得研究该区域突发事件的扩散机理，对我国典型的战略工程和设施，乃至区域的预警体系的构建具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。本文利用预警管理理论为指导，结合灾害管理理论、系统科学理论、情景分析、结构方程模型、系统动力学等理论与方法，将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合，具有重要的研究价值。全文由七部分组成：第一部分：说明了突发公共事件扩散状态下对应急管理的需求，指出了缺乏扩散机理研究的突发事件应急管理缺乏有效性这一问题。在文献综述的基础上，确定了本文研究的目的、意义；研究的框架和相应的技术路线；对本文使用的一些基本概念进行了界定和说明。第二部分：首先在全面分析突发事件及其相关概念界定的基础上，对突发事件的概念进行了界定，分析了突发事件的各种类型。在实证调研的基础上，提出了三峡坝区突发事件的类型。通过三峡坝区突发事件扩散关系的初步分析，指出了准备研究的具体突发事件类型。在此基础上，首次采用李克特量表和结构方程模型对突发事件扩散路径进行了初步确定。第三部分：依据第二部分突发事件扩散关系的确定，在假设的基础上确定了五类突发事件扩散路径。依据突发事件扩散路径，对突发事件扩散中的次生事件及其影响关系进行测度指标研究。第四部分：依据第二、三部分研究结论，在实证调研基础上，采用系统动力学方法构建了突发公共事件扩散的SD模型。利用专家咨询和文献查询实证调研的数据和阐述，对上述突发公共事件SD模型进行了仿真，得到了次生事件扩散的状态数据。依据各类次生事件的演化数据，得到了突发公共事件扩散的整体演化特点，并总结出来了十种基本的次生事件演化状态，提出了影响次生事件扩散的主要影响因素。第五部分：依据影响突发公共事件扩散的主要因素，提出了突发事件扩散的基本方式，突发公共事件扩散的性质，突发公共事件扩散动力的不同组合是造成次生事件扩散的原因。利用上述三个方面影响因素的分析框架，认为突发公共事件的扩散受到扩散耦合和结构耦合的影响。通过对突发事件扩散系统图谱的分析，认为结构耦合能够极大地影响扩散耦合的发生和作用过程，并分析了不同耦合现象下突发事件扩散体的脆弱性。第六部分：依据突发事件扩散机理，描述了突发事件扩散状态下的决策需求特点。首次提出了突发公共事件扩散下的决策模式包括：应急决策模式和协同决策模式两个部分，应急决策模式的运行将导致协同决策模式的产生，指出了突发公共事件协同决策模式的目标选择、决策程序、决策主体、决策模式运行机制等具体内容。最后，采用构建的决策模式对危险品船舶失火爆炸突发公共事件进行了分析，证实了该模式的有效性。第七部分：对全文进行了总结，讨论了本文存在的不足以及以后需要进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the beginning of the 21st century, public emergency (PE) have beenincreasingly erupting in a large scale and high frequency. Up against the frequency ofPE, lots of academics starts to focus on the study of early-warning and emergencysystem. However, PE often happens unexpectedly and comprehensively withcalamitous effect, which makes early-warning and emergency system based ontraditional theories difficult to predict, control and handle PE Richard Choularton(2001). Merle Jacob and Tomas Hellstrom’s research proves that mechanicalcognition about PE will greatly influence the handling and controlling efficiency ofPE. Namely, knowing the diffuse mechanism will help us to establish an efficientearly-warning management mode. Therefore, the author expects to offer antheoretical foundation for the establishment of early-warning system.Three Gorges Dam Area becomes a very important region in our countrybecause of the fame of the Three Gorges Project. This area has a well-knowncomprehensive function of flood-prevention, hydropower, navigation and tourism.Whereas, resulted from enormous changes of natural and artificial environment, italso exists much circumstance, which is likely to cause PE. Once a PE bursts out inthe dam area, it may induce social chain response.As a result, society panic wouldprobably be caused. Even worse, it can evolve regional social crisis or even nationalcrisis.So typical characters in Three Gorges makes the study on the diffusemechanism of PE in this area has a relatively important theoretical and practicalmeaning, not only for typical strategic projects and establishment in our country butalso for the regional early-warning system.Directed by the early-warning theory, combining theories and methods ofcalamity management, systematic science, scene analysis, structure equation model, systematic dynamics, etc, the paper organically intercrosses and merges manysubjects in the frontier academic to deserve high academic research.The whole paperis composed of three parts.In the first part, the paper explains the demands on decision-makingmanagement when the PE is in diffuse condition. Then it points out the inefficiencyof the decision-making in lack of the study on diffuse mechanism. After that, basedon the documentary summary, the paper ascertains its study purpose of the paper,study skeleton and relevant technology route.It also defines and explains someconception, which are used in it.In the second part, based on the comprehensive analysis of PE and the definitionof their corresponding conception, firstly the paper defines the conception of PE andanalyzes various types of PE. Secondly, according to the positive study, it proposesPE types in Three Gorges Dam Area. Thirdly, the paper initially analyzes the diffuserelation for PE and points out concrete PE types, which it is going to study. Finally,Kete Lee quantity form and structure equation model is creatively adopted in thepaper to define the PED route.In the third part, according to the appointed PED relation, the paper assumes andfixes on five types of PED route.On the basis of PED route; it begins to make anestimating index study on the secondary incidents and its influencing relation.In the fourth part, based on the conclusion from the second and the third part, thepaper innovatively adopts the method of systematic dynamics to design the SD modelfor PED. In addition, the methods of expert consultation and documentary inquiry areemployed to design emulative PED model above and acquire the diffuse status data ofsecondary incidents.In the fifth part, from the model emulation for PED, essential aberrance modesare put forward. Then after summing up the condition in which aberrance modesoccur, the author concludes safely that the existence of the structure coupling modesfor PE is the biggest contributors to their complexity. After that, on the foundation ofanalyzing PED system chart, an experiment on the frangibility of the PED system ismade so that it obtains the frangibility.In the end, the author originally proposes fourdiffuse mechanisms for PED. In the sixth part, according to the PED mechanism, characters and principles forthe decision-making mode design are described in the paper. Then the papercreatively designs a decision-making mode when PE is diffused. Meanwhile, it pointsout the concrete content for the running of decision-making modes, which involves inthe intention choice for the decision-making modes, the optimization fordecision-making procedure, the association for the decision-making main body etc.In the seventh part, to full text summarize, discuss that this text exist deficiencyand study further.更多还原