【作者】 吕明元；

【导师】 逄锦聚；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 具有国际竞争力的产业是一个国家的经济之本,也是综合国力的根基。经济全球化时代,是国家间竞争更为赤裸、更为激烈的时代,国家间的竞争最主要、最直接的方式就是产业间的竞争。被称作“世界工厂1”的中国,虽然经济总量已位居世界第六位(2003年),但在国际竞争力的产业发展方面乏善可陈。诸多的实证分析表明2,我国产业国际竞争力总排名还比较靠后,具有较高国际竞争力水平的产业屈指可数,在附加值较高的出口商品中,我国产品的国际市场占有率很低,甚至没有印度软件业那样国际地位显赫的国家产业。作为一个日益崛起的经济大国,如何实现产业升级,打造世界级的具有国际竞争力的产业成为当务之急。本文首先对产业演进理论和产业国际竞争力理论作了梳理和评述,而后在对中外产业发展经验进行实证考察的基础上,把产业成长和国际竞争力相结合进行研究,从国际竞争力视角构建了一个产业成长模型——战车模型,提出了我国在决定未来国际竞争力产业发展时,必须思考的若干问题和必须面对的诸多因素和可能的选择。最后在对我国的产业国际竞争力进行实证分析的基础上,阐明了政策性建议。全文共分为七章。第一章导论,对选题背景、研究目的、概念界定,本文的基本论点和研究方法,以及论文的创新与有待解决的问题作了简要的交代。第二章对产业演进理论进行了梳理和评析。从产业发展史来看,产业演进本身是一个动态的过程,既表现为单一产业的生命周期过程,也表现为产业结构的演进过程,第一、二、三次产业在不同经济发展阶段起着主次不同的作用。产业生命周期理论把产业划分为四个阶段,但真正的演进过程是复杂的。产业生命周期理论在一定程度上揭示了单一产业发展的内在规律。产业结构的演进过程是经济增长的伴随之物;是一系列不平衡发展的结果。产业结构的高级化和合理化是产业结构优化的主要内容,产业结构优化实际上是一个市场组织过程。第三章对产业国际竞争力理论进行了评析。国外国际竞争力的研究从1980年创立开始至今,已经形成几个较为成熟的评价指标体系。我国国际竞争力研究是从1989年开始的,但国内的研究缺乏本土化的研究和现实意义上的理论创新。国内外关于国际竞争力研究在观点上并不统一,在评价方法的采用、指标体系的选择上也存在争论和差异。产业国际竞争力评价是一个复杂的、涉及诸多因素的问题,对我国产业国际竞争力的评价,必须从我国的国情和实际出发。在建立具有国际竞争力产业成长模式时,要考虑到多方面的因素。第四章对中国产业发展作了实证性的经验分析与理论总结。建国以后至改革开放前,我国的产业发展出现过失误,1979年以来我国经过产业结构调整和发展,各产业之间及其内部的比例关系都有了明显的改善,产业国际竞争力增强。从我国的实证分析与国际比较看(吕明元,2005a),1952-2003年我国产业结构的演进既遵循了产业结构演进的一般规律,也有其特殊性。影响我国产业结构演进的主要因素包括体制变革和市场化的作用、需求因素、政治因素、资源禀赋等。从发展脉络看,1978-2004年中国产业选择理论是在一个不断深化和完善的过程中(吕明元,2005b),表现在理论内容、分析方法、涉及领域、本土化程度等诸方面。第五章是对几个国家产业发展的实证性分析和考察。几个国家的产业发展的经验表明,制度政策、市场需求、技术创新和资源禀赋比较优势等因素是其成功的主要原因。但产业发展并没有统一的固定模式,各国之间不同,一国在时间上也在不断变化。各国产业政策的内容,概念,形式等均有所不同,一国的产业政策的内容也是不断变化的。第六章是本文的核心部分,从国际竞争力视角构建了一个产业成长模型——战车模型。没有现成的理论能够完全解释产业成长,在假定影响产业成长的因素完全等同于影响经济增长的因素这一逻辑前提下,本章从总结几种经验性研究结论和各国产业发展经验出发,认为影响具有国际竞争力的产业成长的因素主要有四个:资源禀赋(硬支撑)和制度政策(软支撑),以及两个拉动因素:技术创新和市场需求,由此而构成一个具有国际竞争力的产业成长模型——战车模型。国际竞争力产业成长是一个动态的过程,由“战车模型”中四个个函数变量决定,四要素之间是相互作用的。通过四要素的组合,产业竞争力是可变的,一个产业可以从竞争优势退变为竞争劣势,也可以由竞争劣势转变为竞争优势。这一模型是在对波特“钻石模型”改良的基础上构建起来的,在保留其两个主要要素“资源禀赋”和“市场需求”之外,所增加的“技术创新”和“制度政策”两个要素弥补了“钻石模型”的不足。但“战车模型”绝非一个关于产业成长和产业国际竞争力演进的万能模式,而只是一个解释和分析问题的视角和思路。本章还从产业成长的角度分析了“战车模型”中四要素的作用。第七章在运用我国的产业国际竞争力实际资料对上述理论模型验证的基础上,提出了政策性建议。几种产业国际竞争力评价方法实证分析表明,我国改革开放以来产业国际竞争力有了极大的提高,劳动密集型产业是我国产业国际竞争力优势的重要表现,但我国产业国际竞争力总排名还比较靠后,单一产业的竞争力仍然很差,产业技术自主创新能力弱,高技术和高附加值产业在国际竞争中处于劣势。我国具有国际竞争力的产业成长政策性建议:(1)制度方面。一是从消除我国产业成长的制度性障碍入手,进行制度创新;二是以强制和诱致相结合的方式推进市场化进程。(2)产业政策方面。一是高效的国家产业政策至关重要;二是处理好市场保护与开放的关系;(3)实施技术创新国际化战略,不断提高传统产品与服务的技术含量和附加值。运用市场机制和优惠政策来激励企业技术研发。实行产业倾斜政策,优先发展某些产业。(4)在资源禀赋方面,充分发挥比较优势,努力创造竞争优势。用动态比较利益方法来制定产业政策。(5)产业生命周期理论对我国产业发展的启示在于,国家应注重培养竞争环境,鼓励企业参与市场竞争,而不是作过多的政策性进入限制。国家应致力于提供吸收技术所需的基础设施、能源保障等措施。本文创新点主要包括:(1)新颖的研究契入点:把产业成长和国际竞争力相结合进行研究。从检索到的资料看,产业成长问题、产业国际竞争力问题都是学术界的研究热点,但把两者相结合的深入研究并不多见。本文选择这一研究角度,意在探寻具有国际竞争力的产业成长规律,探索我国合理的具有国际竞争力的产业成长模式。(2)在对波特的“钻石模型”改良的基础上,加入了制度与技术因素,构建了四要素国际竞争力的产业成长模式——“战车模型”。在论述中运用了波特“钻石模型”的分析方法,并注重从产业成长的角度分析“战车模型”中的四要素,探寻产业国际竞争力演进的规律。在某种程度上把波特的产业竞争力研究思路与发展中国家国情进行了结合——对我国产业的分析,弥补了波特相关研究中的不足。(3)运用几种指标对我国产业国际竞争力进行了综合评价,得出了较为全面、较为合理的结论,并提出了政策性建议。(4)对我国1952-2003年产业结构演进进行了实证分析与国际比较,并对1978-2004年中国产业选择理论发展脉络进行了厘清和总结。(5)概念创新:对“产业国际竞争力”概念的定义,以及从国际竞争力角度对“产业”的定义。本文在研究方法上注重理论与实证相结合,定性分析与定量分析相结合,个别分析与一般论证相结合,并重视比较分析方法的运用。概念创新方面,在遵循产业经济发展规律和本文内在整体逻辑基础上,对一系列概念进行厘清和细化,并有所创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the era of the economic globalization, the most direct and important way of competition among countries is the competition of industry. China, which is called the“the factory of world”, although the gross of the economy ranks the sixth in the world (2003), is rather weak in the aspects of the industry of the international competitiveness. The international competitiveness of the industry still lags behind other countries; industries which have high level of international competitiveness are few. Building the world-class industry which has the international competitiveness becomes a most urgent issue at the current time.From the data collected, both the development of the industry and the international competitiveness are academic research hotspots, But while it is rarely found in literature to combine them together. As an innovation of the study, this dissertation sets to combine the development of industry together with the international competitiveness.The research aim of this paper: first, to investigate into the law of the development of the industry with the international competitiveness; second, to examine the reasonable model of the development of the industry with the international competitiveness in China.As an innovation, this paper puts forward a model of industry development-Chariot Model in the kernel chapter (Chapter Sixth). The aim is not to supply a almighty model about industrial development and international competitiveness of industry, but to supply a view and thinking of explaining and analyzing questions, and attempt to put forward some questions which must be considered and many factors and possible choices which must be encountered when China decides the development of industry with international competitiveness in the future.This paper consists of seven chapters.The first chapter is introduction. In this chapter, the background of the selection, research aims, definition of the conceptions, basic viewpoints and research methods, innovation and questions to be resolved are briefly stated.The second chapter is a general statement about the theory of industry evolution.From the history of industry, evolution of industry is a dynamic course. According to industry life-cycle theory it could be divided into four stages, but the real process of evolution is complex. Industry life-cycle theory discovers the immanent law of single industry development to a certain extent. Evolution course of industrial structure is the concomitant of the economic growth and the outcome of a series of development imbalance. The sophistication of industrial structure and the rationalization are the main contents of industrial structure of optimization. Optimization of industrial structure is a course of market organization.In the third chapter, the theory of international competitiveness of industry is summarized systematically.From 1980s till now, several relatively perfect index systems of evaluation on the international competitiveness have already been formed by the foreign study. China’s study on international competitiveness began in 1989, but the domestic study lacked nativism and theoretical innovation of realism. The viewpoints of foreign studies on the international competitiveness are inconsistent. About the application of methods of evaluation, the choice of index system, there are also debates and differences. The evaluation of industrial international competitiveness is a complex question involving many factors. We must evaluate China’s international competitiveness of industry based on the situation of our country and our realities. When we found the industrial development model of international competitiveness, many factors must be considered.The fourth chapter is the demonstrative and empirical analysis and theoretic summarization of China’s industries.From 1949 to 1978, China’s industrial development made some mistakes. Thanks to industrial adjustment and development, inter-industrial and intra-industrial proportion has been improved obviously and international competitiveness of industry has been boosted up since 1979. From demonstrative analysis and international compare (Lv Mingyuan, 2005a), the evolution of our industrial structure not only conformed to the general law of the evolution of industrial structure, but also had its particularity from 1952 to 2003. The factors that affect evolution of our industrial structure mainly include system reform, demand, politics, resources endowment, etc. From the development, China’s industrial theory of choice was an uninterrupted further and perfect course from 1978 to 2004. (Lv Mingyuan, 2005b), it was shown in such aspects as theory, methods of analysis, involved fields, degree of nativism, etc.In the fifth chapter, industrial development of several countries is analyzed demonstratively and reviewed.The experiments of several countries’industrial development show that many factors are their main reasons that they can succeed, such as institution and policy, market demand, technical innovation and resources endowments, etc.In Chapter 6, we put forward a model of industrial development- Chariot Model from the viewpoint of the international competitiveness,which is the core of the paper.No exiting theory can explain industrial development perfectly. In this chapter, from summarizing several conclusions of experimental studies and the experiment of industrial development in many countries, we believe that there are four main factors that affect international competitiveness of industrial development: resources endowment(tough support) ,institution and policy(soft support), and two pull factors,i.e. technical innovation and market demand.Regarding the four factors as precondition, we amend Porter’s Diamond Model and construct a model of industrial development from the viewpoint of international competitiveness- Chariot Model. The development of industry with international competitiveness is a dynamic course, which is determined by the four variables of Chariot Model. By the combination of the four factors, industrial competitiveness can be changeable. An industry can retrogress from the advantage of competition to the disadvantage of competition, and also can change from the disadvantage of competition to the advantage of competition. This paper analyzes the function of the four factors of Chariot Model from the viewpoint of industrial development.Chapter 7 puts forward strategic suggestions based on the demonstrative analysis on China’s international competitiveness of industries.Several methods of evaluation of international competitiveness of industry demonstrate that China’s international competitiveness of industry has a great improvement. Labor- intensive industry is our important presentation of the advantage of international competitiveness, but China’s international competitiveness of industry is still far behind other countries. The competitiveness of single industry is still weak. Independent innovation ability of industrial technology is not strong. High technology and high-valued industries are in the inferior position in the international competition. This chapter puts forward policy suggestion on China’s development of industry with international competitiveness from institution, industrial policy, technical innovation, resources endowment and the revelation of life-cycle theory.更多还原