【作者】 丁骋骋；

【导师】 唐朱昌；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着美国贸易赤字不断扩大，全球国际收支失衡这一问题日益受到人们关注。在分析国际收支失衡的原因中，经济学家已经提供了多种不同视角。本文的研究框架建立在国际收支货币分析法的基础上，认为国际收支资本账户失衡是一种货币现象，它与国际资本流动有关。因此，本文从金融体系的结构性差异研究外部失衡问题。具体而言，一国资本市场发达与否关系到一国能否通过国际证券投资(FPI)吸引到足够的国外资本，最终导致一国资本账户是否为顺差(或逆差)。而资本市场与一国金融体系有关，在市场主导型的英美国家，资本市场比较发达，国外资本通过证券投资渠道大量内流，从而引起国际收支资本账户顺差。在银行主导型的德日国家，间接融资占据主导地位，资本市场相对落后，国外资本通过证券投资渠道流入较少，相反国内资金通过FDI大量外流，引起资本账户逆差。一国国际收支的两个账户又存在相互促进的格兰杰因果关系。本文运用18个工业化国家的经验数据，发现资本市场发展程度与一国证券资本流动显著正相关，而与滞后一期的经常账户显著负相关。因此一国的资本市场能够通过证券投资这一经济变量影响资本账户，它背后反映的是一国的金融结构问题。金融体系的不同又可以上溯到法律制度的差异。根据LLSV“法与金融”理论我们知道，普通法系国家由于较好的投资者法律保护，金融市场十分发达，进而形成市场主导型金融体系。而诸如大陆法系国家在投资者保护方面不及普通法系国家，往往形成不发达的金融体系。因此，国际收支的失衡在一定程度上又与法律制度有关。法律制度对金融体系的影响不光体现在资本市场，也体现在对银行业的发展。另外更重要的是，法律制度本身也是一个影响资本流动的独立的影响因素，如果一国有较好的法律，将吸引国外资金大量流入，引起资本账户顺差。因此，国际收支失衡又与法律制度存在很大关联。本文在LLSV基础上，对48个国家(地区)放在开放经济条件下进行实证检验，发现普通法系国家和大陆法系国家在国际收支表现上存在显著差异。因此，法律制度在一定程度上可以说明国际收支的不同表现。金融体系影响一国国际收支，主要是通过国际资本流动(证券投资)这个渠道实现的。但一国利用外资除了外国证券投资(FPI)，还有外国直接投资(FDI)。对此，本文专门对外国直接投资和证券投资进行比较，论证了FDI与FPI作为一国利用外资的两种形式，应该均衡发展，合理利用，两者一样都能对东道国的经济发展产生积极影响。通过中国和印度的横向比较，我们更能理解对一个发展中大国而言，发展金融市场的极端重要性。传统的国际收支结构分析法仅将结构性因素分析经常账户的失衡，本文将它进一步扩展到资本账户，并将经常账户和资本账户联系起来考虑问题。本文的一个核心观点认为全球国际收支失衡本质上是一个结构性问题。外部失衡是结果，内部失衡是原因。从单个国家来讲，一国的国际收支经常账户与资本账户之所以出现不平衡，分别可以从一国国内经济结构和金融结构上找到原因。从短期来看，无论用支出增减型还是支出转换型政策都无助于从根本上解决全球国际收支失衡。因此，要从根本上解决外部失衡，也只能从长期入手运用供给政策解决结构性问题。本文最后对我国经济发展提出了若干政策建议：(1)在外部失衡调整的问题上，我们除了运用需求调节政策增加内需外，更多地应该运用供给政策，调整国内经济结构和金融结构，如科技政策、产业政策和制度创新政策。经济结构的调整主要是转换经济增长模式；而金融结构调整的重点是发展一个活跃的资本市场。(2)人民币汇率大幅升值无论是调整中美的贸易逆差，还是改善全球国际收支失衡，作用都不会太大。对中国而言，更重要的将原来的“出口导向型”经济增长模式转向“国内消费主导型”，其意义并不仅仅为了消除巨额的经常账户顺差。(3)在金融体系的发展问题上，我国发展市场主导还是银行主导型的金融体系的争论是没有价值的，无论以哪一种体系为主，发展资本市场意义却是极其重要的。其意义不光为企业融资和完善公司治理，同时也关系到一国能否比较合理地吸收到外资。(4)在利用外资的问题上，外国直接投资(FDI)在我国利用外资方面占据了绝对地位。从长远发展看，我们应该大力发展我国的资本市场，开放资本账户，并通过“外国证券投资”(FPI)这一渠道积极利用外资。(5)在我国法制建设的问题上，我国从根本上讲还是属于大陆法系国家，但是在民商法的立法过程中，应该更多地借鉴和吸收英美法中的积极因素。(6)在改革我国金融体制的问题上，只有健全银行的信贷机制，建立一个全方位、多层次的金融市场，才能消除我国的“资本流动怪圈”。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global imbalances are hot topic of international economics recently. Especially with the the trad deficit of U.S. widen, more and more economists are attracted to study the global imbalances. Economists all over the world have provided several viewpoints on the causes of global imbalances. Basing on the Moneatary Approach to the Balance-of-Payments (MABP), this paper argues that the global imbalances are monetary phenomena which related to international capital flow. We try to study the global imbalance from the viewpoint of financial system. Wheather a country have an advanced capital market decides the country can attract enough capital through FPI, then causes to the surplus of capital account. Capital market is related with financial system. In the market-based financial system countries such as U. S. and U. K., international capital inflow is large because they have developed capital markets, then cause to the surplus of capital account. While in bank-based countries such as Germany and Japan, in which capital markets are relative backword, international capital inflow is not as large as former countries. On the contrary, domestic capital outflows largely through FDI, resulting in the deficit of capital account. The two accounts of balance of payment are Granger caution for each other. Through analyzing penal data from 18 industry countries, this paper discovers that, the portfolio inflow is significantly positively related to the stock market development, and significantly negatively related to current account. So, the capital market of one country can affect the capital account through portfolio investment, which reflects the problem of financial structure of one country.The difference of financial system can attribute to the origin of law. According to LLSV’s theory of law and finance, common-law countries generally have developed stock markets because they have the strongest legal protections of investors, so their financial system are characterized by market-based. Civil-law countries’ stock markets are relative backward because weak legal protections of investors, so these countries’ financial system are bank-based generally. In some sense, the global imbalances are related with the origin of law. The effect of law on the financial system embodied not only the capital markets, but also the development of banking of one country. On the other hand, law is the independent element affecting capital flows. If one country has good legal protection of investors, large capital inflows inducing the surplus of capital account. So law is related with global imbalance. Basing on the study of LLSV, we make a positive test using 48 countries (regions) statistics about balance of payment, and results show that common-law countries have significant differences with civil-law counties on balance of payment.Both law and financial system affect the balance of payment of one country through portfolio ivestment. We can find the importance of FPI in using foreign capital to a developing country. This paper compares the economic results of FDI and FPI, and results show that both of them are two kinds of modes using foreign capital, and should be used reasonably, because they can produce profitable influence to host country. From the comparison of China with Indian, we can understand completely that the importance of the development of financial markets to a large developing country.The traditional economists analysis current imbalances using structural elements in "the Structral Approach to Balance-of-Payments" (SABP), while in this paper we extent to capital imbalances and study global imbalances combining current accounts and capital accounts. An important conclusion of this paper is global imbalance is a structural problem essentially, so expenture policy is not efficient solving global imbalance in long time. For one country, the current account and financial imbalance reflect domestic problem of economic and financial structure respectively. We should adopt supply policies about structural problems so as to solve the external imbalances.This paper provides some suggestions for our country’s economic development:(1) In solving external imbalance, except demand policies to add domestic efficient demand, the most important measure is supply policies to adjust domestic economic and financial structure, such as R&D policy, industry policy and institution innovation policy et al.(2) The preaciation of RMB will not produce positive effect to adjustment of Sino-US trad deficit and global imbalance. It is most important for China to transfer economic growth mode from export-orient to domestic comsuption-orient.(3) In development of financial system, wheather market-based or bank-based, capial market are very important, because the function of capital market embodied in not only financing for corporations and prefecting corporate governance, but also deciding wheather one country can attract foreign capital reasonably.(4) In using foreign capital, FDI is the main proportion using foreign capital in our country, but FPI will become another important mode in long time, so we should pay attention to it.(5) In our country’s legal construction, considering that China is German-civil-law origin country, we should abopt the positive elements from common-law.(6) In reforming of our country financial system, except perfecting credit mechanism of commercial banks, we should develop financial markets to eliminate "capital flow dilemma". In development of our country’s capital market, we should establish a diversified market including not only a advanced stock market but also bond and derivative financial product markets.更多还原