金融发展影响城乡收入差距的实证研究

【作者】 张立军；

【导师】 张晖明；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 基于目前中国金融发展特征以及相关文献综述，本文提出金融发展影响城乡收入差距的三大效应即金融发展的门槛效应、金融发展的非均衡效应、金融发展的降低贫困效应。然后，本文对金融发展影响城乡收入差距的三大效应的作用机制进行了理论分析。(一)在Galor-Zeira模型的基础上，本文理论模型增加了抵押品这一假设，模型结果表明：信用约束的假设正是财富动态轨迹跃迁的关键所在，也就产生了金融发展的门槛效应。本文虽然没有直接分析金融市场不完善的前提下金融发展的门槛效应对我国城乡收入差距的影响，但我们可做如下推导：在发展中国家，城乡存在典型的二元结构，整体的城市居民收入水平和继承的遗产一般都会比整体的农村居民收入水平和继承的遗产要高，因此我们有理由把本文中当事人的穷人和富人近似为城市居民群体和农村居民群体，从而，在金融市场不完善的条件下，金融发展的门槛效应也会对城乡收入差距产生影响。(二)金融发展意味着利率管制的放松和金融部门效率以及资本配置效率的提高。包括金融部门在内的三部门模型表明：金融发展的城乡非均衡效应影响着农业部门和工业部门的储蓄率、农业部门和工业部门的生产性资本投资收益率以及储蓄投资转化效率、资本劳动装备率、资本劳动装备率的增长率，而这些因素又影响着城乡收入差距的对比关系。从而，金融发展的城乡非均衡效应对城乡收入差距产生影响。另外，经济转轨过程中，具有工业比较优势的A地区因为具有发展工业的比较优势，因此该地区非国有工业部门发展更快。非国有工业部门的发展不仅会带来城市居民收入水平的上升，而且也给农村居民带来更多的就业机会和相应收入；但相对于A地区，具有农业比较优势的B地区没有发展工业的比较优势，因此其非国有工业部门并不能得到充分发展，其城乡收入差距主要仍然表现为农业部门和城市国有工业部门的收入差距。另外，由于市场力量发挥了更大作用，大量资金从B地区流向了A地区，A地区和B地区经济和金融差距会更加扩大，从而会更加扩大地区之间的城乡收入差距。即金融发展的地区非均衡效应会扩大城乡收入差距。(三)金融发展通过两条途径即间接渠道和直接渠道降低贫困，一条是金融发展促进经济增长，经济增长从而可以降低贫困水平；另外一条是微型金融的降低贫困效应，即通过发展小额信贷，为城乡贫困居民尤其是农村贫困居民直接提供金融服务，从而降低他们的贫困水平。贫困水平的下降降低了城乡收入差距。即金融的降低贫困效应会降低城乡收入差距。接着，本文具体实证分析了金融发展的三大效应对城乡收入差距的影响。(一)利用1978—2004年以及分年段的省际面板数据，对金融发展的门槛效应与城乡收入差距进行经验分析，结果显示金融发展的门槛效应显著扩大了我国的城乡收入差距，而且不依赖于经济结构的特点。同时，总体来说，所谓的库兹涅茨现象并不存在。(二)选取1978—2004年全国金融发展非均衡指标、城镇登记失业率、经济开放程度指标以及城乡收入差距指标等经济和社会因素指标共同构建VAR计量模型进行分析表明金融发展的城乡非均衡效应显著扩大了我国的城乡收入差距。同时，利用1978—2004年以及分年段的省际面板数据，对金融发展的地区非均衡效应与城乡收入差距进行经验分析，结果显示金融发展的地区非均衡效应显著扩大了我国的城乡收入差距。(三)利用1978—2004年中国的数据对金融发展的降低贫困效应的间接渠道进行检验得出：金融发展和农村金融发展分别降低城乡恩格尔系数的平均值和农村恩格尔系数，也间接证明了金融发展和农村金融发展分别降低整体贫困水平和农村内部的贫困水平。同时，基于中国1994—2004年小额信贷的相关数据，通过时间序列分析和截面分析均表明：金融发展的降低贫困效应的直接渠道显著降低贫困程度。从而，基于中国的现实证明了金融发展影响城乡收入差距的三大效应的存在。需要补充的是，在我国目前金融发展还不是高度发达的情况下，金融发展的门槛效应和金融发展的非均衡效应还占据着主导的地位，金融发展的降低贫困效应还处于一种次要的境地，所以，在目前阶段，金融发展扩大了城乡收入差距。最后，在中国目前金融经济环境中，金融发展扩大了城乡收入差距。在构建和谐社会的进程中，本文带给我们的政策含义是金融应该更多为穷人服务、为农村居民服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the features of China’s current financial development and the literature reviewed, this paper presents three effects that the development of the financial has impacted on the income gap between urban and rural areas: threshold effects, non-equilibrium effects and the effects of reducing poverty, and then makes a theoretical analysis on each mechanism of the three effects above.(1)Based on the Galor-Zeira model, in the theoretical model of this paper we make an assumption of increasing the collateral. As showed by the results of the model, the presumption of credit bound is rightly the key to the dynamic path transition of wealth, so it brings out the threshold effects of financial development. In this paper, we do not make a direct analysis of the financial threshold effects on the income gap between urban and rural areas under the premise of imperfections of the financial markets, but we can make derivations as follows: in developing countries, there exists typical dual structure between urban and rural areas, and the urban residents’ overall level of income and inheritance will be better than those rural residents. So we have the reason to regard the poor and the rich in the parties of this paper as similar to urban communities and rural residents groups, thus, under the imperfections of the financial markets the financial threshold effects will have an impact on the rural-urban income gap. (2)As the development of finance, it means that the control of interest rate deregulates, and the efficiency of financial sector and the allocation of capital have improved. The three departments model that financial sector included shows: the financial non-equilibrium effects between urban and rural areas have impacts on the savings rate, productive capital investment yield, efficiency savings into investment, capital labor and equipment rate and its growth rate between the agricultural and industrial sectors. However, these factors also affect the comparison between the income gap between urban and rural areas. Thus, the financial non-equilibrium effects between urban and rural areas have impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas. In addition, in the process of economic restructuring, districts A has a comparative advantage because of the comparative industrial development advantages, and therefore non-state-owned industrial sector develops faster in the region. The development of the non-state-owned industrial sector will not only bring about the rise in urban income levels, but also create more job opportunities for rural residents and the corresponding income; But for A, B, no comparative advantage in agriculture with the industrial development of the comparative advantages, Non-state-owned industrial sector and therefore are not fully developed, and the performance of its urban-rural income gap is still mainly brought out between agricultural sector and state-owned industrial sector. Moreover, due to market forces playing a greater role, large capital flows from the region B to A, which will further widen the gap between the economic and financial area, so that it will further widen the income gap between urban and rural areas. Namely the financial development local non-balanced effect will expand Urban-rural income disparity. (3) There are two ways of the indirect channels and direct channels reducing poverty in the financial development, one is to promote economic growth which can reduce poverty levels, while Micro-finance is another effect of reducing poverty. Through the development of micro-credit, it can provide financial services for the urban and rural poor people, especially poor rural residents reducing their level of poverty. As the level of poverty declines, the income gap between urban and rural areas becomes lesser. Namely the financial development reducing the poverty effect will decrease Urban-rural income disparity.Then, we develop specific Empirical Analysis of the three major effects on the financial impact of the income gap between urban and rural areas. (1) using 1978-2004’s and the inter-provincial panel data, we have made an empirical analysis of financial threshold effects and the income gap between urban and rural areas. The results showed that financial threshold effects are significantly expanding China’s urban-rural income gap, independent of the characteristics of the economic structure. Meanwhile, the so-called Kuznets phenomenon does not exist. (2) selecting 1978-2004’s economic and social factors such as the non-financial indicators, the registered unemployment rate in urban areas, open economic indicators index and the income gap between urban and rural areas, we can build a common measurement indicator analysis model which shows that the financial urban-rural non-equilibrium effects have significantly broadened the income gap between China’s urban and rural areas. Meanwhile, using the years of 1978-2004, and sub-provincial panel data, we also made an empirical analysis of financial non-equilibrium effects and the income gap between urban and rural areas, and the results showed the financial non-equilibrium effects have significantly expanded China’s urban-rural income gap.(3)based on China’s 1978-2004 financial data, we draw a post-mortem from the financial indirect channels of reducing poverty, that is: financial development and rural finance development have separately decreased the Engel’s coefficient and rural Engel coefficient. And it also indirectly bears that financial development and rural finance development have separately decreased the overall poverty level and rural poverty level. Meanwhile, based on micro-credit related data of China’s 1994-2004, through analysis of time series and cross-section analysis it indicates: financial direct channels for reducing poverty works significantly. Thus, it has exactly proved the existence of the three effects financial impacts on the urban-rural income gap. In addition, as to the situation of China’s current financial development not highly developed, the financial threshold effects and non-equilibrium effects are also occupying a dominant position, while the reducing poverty effects is still in a minority position. So the financial development, at this stage, is expanding the income gap between urban and rural areas.Finally, in the current financial environment, financial development has widened the income gap between the urban and rural areas. In the process of building a harmonious society, this gives us the implication of the policy that finance should mostly serve the poor and rural residents.更多还原