【作者】 岳欣；

【导师】 忻展红；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 《“九五”计划和2010年远景目标纲要》中提出“到2010年，把信息产业建成我国最大的产业，成为推动国民经济成长的主要动力”。基于这一时代背景，本文主要探讨了信息产业重要组成部分的固定网络运营商的转型问题。固网转型是一个不争的事实，但如何转型却是一个充满争议的问题。本文的创新主要体现在利用动态经济学的理论，结合博弈论等方法，从定性、定量两个角度出发，凭借文中所建立的11个数学模型将固网运营商转型，尤其是纵向一体化过程中所涉及的相关问题串连起来，并进行了深入的分析和探讨。主要研究内容和创新点可以概括为以下几个方面：1．通过建立“信息产业自组织演化模型”和“信息产业中的竞争模型”用数学的方法证明了固网转型的必要性，从而引出了本文所要研究的主要内容。(?)从产业自组织演化着手，建立了“信息产业自组织演化模型”，并将分形理论中的分数布朗运动引入到模型中，提出了“基于分数布朗运动的修正模型”。文中以通信业的实际业务收入为例，采用实证的方法证明了修正模型的有效性；同时，研究结果表明我国传统通信业正在由发展的鼎盛期向衰退期转变，因此需要转型。(?)“信息产业的竞争模型”用数学的方式描述了固网运营商和移动运营商的竞争过程。通过求解演化方程组的特征根，判断了不同情况下定态点的稳定性，分析了最终的演化结果和实际含义，从而得出移动替代固网话音业务是发展的必然趋势，因此有且只有转型才能改变固网运营商的命运。2．详细探讨了固网转型的内涵、原因和模式，并以转型模式之一的纵向整合互联网产业链作为本文的主要研究方向。(?)基于国外运营商转型的经验，从行业演化的角度得出我国固网运营商转型总体战略为：立足于网络，秉承“集腋成裘，聚沙成塔”的思想，采用交错战略，实事求是的改变商业模式；(?)转型的具体举措为：大力拓展新业务：再造传统业务；通过融合与合作创新业务模式；顺应产业链延伸；注重区域扩张等。(?)通过对产业链的分析，汲取餐饮业的成功经验，从盈利模式、内容、生命周期三个维度揭示了固网纵向整合产业链的可行性：固网转型并不会破坏互联网产业链的协调发展。固网运营商与其他企业之间的关系仅仅属于羊与羊之间适者生存的竞争，而并非虎与羊之间弱肉强食的吞噬。3．既然纵向整合产业链是固网转型的一个重要方向，为了保证转型的成功，需要了解互联网业务的运营规则。通过建立5个数学模型定量的研究了互联网业务的盈利模式以及CP／SP的生存演化过程。(?)基于企业成长理论建立了“两种收费模式下的互联网业务演化模型”。通过分析不同模式下利润的动态演化过程，指出了两种收费模式的利弊，并给出了相应的定量关系式。(?)建立了“运营商与CP之间的关联定价模型”，并利用等倾斜线法对模型解的稳定性进行了探讨，同时分析了CP业务抗市场冲击的能力。(?)提出“修正的业务扩散模型”，证明了创新和模仿系数应是时间的函数；从实证出发基于固定电话用户数的演变过程得出修正模型不仅可以较好的拟合实测数据，而且与传统模型相比经济意义更为明确。(?)基于三人博弈理论建立了“双寡头电信市场中SP的定价模型”，最终得出若SP所提供的服务不能大幅提高运营商的用户数，三人合作是博弈的均衡解；但是，如果SP所提供的服务可以为与之单独合作的运营商带来巨额利润，则运营商往往会偏离博弈的均衡，而寻求与SP单独合作。文中给出了各种情况下博弈解的取值范围。4．在对互联网业务演化过程研究的基础上，探讨了固网转型对两种不同盈利模式的互联网业务的影响。(?)“竞争市场中的扩散模型”探讨了存在竞争的情况时，创新和模仿系数对潜在用户分配和已有用户转移的影响，并给出了定量的表达式。(?)“价格因子对扩散模型的影响模型”分三种情况探讨了价格及广告对扩散模型中创新系数的影响，得出了不同情况下用户的分配结果，进而推得了价格和内容对模仿系数的影响。(?)由以上两个模型可以得出，对于采用后向收费为主的业务，固网运营商无论是作为新业务的开拓者，还是老业务的跟随者，都将提升而且仅是提升了该类业务进入的壁垒；对于包含前向收费的业务，运营商对其他企业的威胁将大大增加。但是，内容和服务质量才是企业获胜的法宝，如果企业能够保证收费内容和服务是运营商无法模仿的，则由于运营商进入所带来的影响将大大降低。5．固网转型的方向不仅仅是纵向整合产业链，基于其自身优势可以开辟出更为广阔的市场空间。论文最后对固网转型的其它模式进行了研究。(?)探讨了中国电信推出的绿色动力网吧的盈利模式；(?)采用委托代理模型研究了两种新的盈利模式的可行性及盈利空间——“构建计算机租赁网络”和“发行小额网购卡”。尽管这些业务的收入对于庞大的固网运营商而言，并非举足轻重，但是“集腋成裘、聚沙成塔”可能更具有现实意义。综上所述，本文利用数学建模的方法研究了固网运营商转型问题。通过多个模型从不同的角度、不同的侧面验证了一些我们已经熟知的结论，如固网转型的必要性等；同时，还得出了一些新的、有参考价值的结论，如证明了固网运营商对互联网产业链的纵向整合并不会破坏产业链的和谐发展，运营商是否进入并不是产业兴亡的关键，内容和服务质量才是企业获胜的法宝，以及SP如何在双寡头电信市场中生存等。更多还原

【Abstract】 One of the objects in "Ninth Five-Year Plan and the Long-Term Goals for2010" is "To 2010, the information industry will be the country’s largest industryand become the main driving force for the growth of the national economy".Based on it, this dissertation discusses the transformation of fixedtelecommunications network services (FTNS) operator which is an importantissue for information industry at present.The transformation of FTNS operator is an indisputable fact, but how totransform is still a very controversial issue. The main innovation of thisdissertation is to link the transformation of FTNS operator with 11 mathematicalmodels, especially with the problems involved in the process of verticalintegration. These questions are analyzed deeply from the qualitative andquantitative points. Primary research and innovation points can be summarized asthe following aspects:1. Prove the necessity of the transformation by two mathmetical modelswhich are "self-organizing evolutionary model of information industry" and"competitive model of information industry".(?) "Self-organizing evolutionary model of information industry" isestablished from the traditional industrial self-organizing evolutionary process.Fractal Brownian Motion in fractal theory is introduced to it, so "Self-organizingevolutionary model of information industry based on Fractional BrownianMotion" is put forward. After that the validity of the revised model is proved byusing the actual income of the telecommunication industry.(?) "Competition model of information industry" describes the competitiveprocess between FTNS operators and mobile ones using mathematical method. The result that the substituting of mobile operators to FTNS operators is a naturaltrend is concluded by solving the characteristic roots of these equations. Thisdissertation judges the stability of the stationary point in different cases andanalyzes the ultimate results and the actual meaning. So we can say that only thetransformation can change the fate of FTNS operator.2. Discuss the meaning, causes and models of the transformation of FTNSoperator in detail. Research direction of this dissertation is to integrate the Intemetindustry chain vertically which is one of the transformation models.(?) Based on the experiences of foreign operators in transformation, we canconclude the strategies of China’s FTNS operator from the perspective of industryevolution: basing on the network, upholding the thinking of "many a little makesmickle", using staggered strategy, changing the business models according to thefacts.(?) The specific measures of transformation are: innovate business modelsthrough integration and cooperation; expand new businesses greatly and recycletraditional services and so on.(?) Learn from the successful experience of the restaurant industry throughanalyzing its industrial chain. Reveal the feasibility of the action that FTNSoperator vertically integrates industrial chain from three dimensions that are profitmodel, content and the life cycle. Then get the conclusion that the transformationof FTNS operator will not destroy the justice of the Internet industry chain. Thecompetition between FTNS operator and other enterprises is only the survival ofthe fittest, not the law of the jungle.3. Since integrating industrial chain vertically is an important direction of thetransformation of FTNS operator, it is necessary to know the Internet businessrules in order to ensure the success of the transformation. The profit model ofIntemet business and the evolution process of CP/SP are researched throtgh fivemathematical models.(?) Establish "income and expenses model of Internet business" based on thetheory of Enterprise Growth. The advantages and disadvantages of two kinds ofpayoff models are pointed out by analyzing the dynamic evolution of profit. Thecorresponding quantitative relationships are also obtained. (?) Establish "pricing model between operators and CP". Explore thestability of the model solution by using the method of isoclinal line. Analyze theresponsive ability of CP when the market is quickly changing.(?) Give "the revised model of service diffusion". Prove that innovation andimitation coefficients should be changing with time going on. Based on thenumber of fixed telephone subscribers, we can say that the revised model is fitterfor the measured data than the traditional one.(?) Establish "pricing model of SP in duopoly telecommunication markets".This model proves that if the service that SP provides can’t greatly exceed carry’ssubscriber number, three-party cooperation is the equilibrium solution. However,if the service can bring a huge sum of profits for the carrier who cooperates withSP alone, carriers will deviate from the equilibrium solution, that is, he will lookfor the cooperation with SP alone. In this dissertation, the value range of thetri-game under various cases is given by mathematics method. It can provide areference for carriers and SP when they consider how to decide share ratio.4. Based on the research of Internet business evolution, we discuss theinfluence from the transformation to two kinds of payoff models of Internetbusiness by mathmetical method.(?) "The diffusion model in competitive market" discusses the effect fromthe coefficients of innovation and imitation to the latent users and present ones.(?) "The impact model of price factor to diffusion model" discusses theinfluence to innovation coefficient in diffusion model which comes from price,content and advertisement. The influence can be divided into three cases, so thedifferent cases’ results are given in this dissertation quantitatively.(?) Based on the two models, the result is that for the service mainly gottenprofit from advertisement, FTNS operator acted as either a pioneer or a followerwill enhance the barriers to entry; for the service gotten profit from not onlyadvertisement but also users, the operator will become a very dangerousantagonist for others. But the quality of content and service is the trump for theenterprise’s success. If the enterprise can be sure that his content or servicecould not be imitated, the impact from the operator will be greatly reduced.5. The direction of the transformation of FTNS operator is not only to integrate Internet industry chain vertically, but also to pioneer wider marketsbased on its advantage. Other models are also researched at last.(?) Discuss the profit model of Green Power cider cafe launched by ChinaTelecom.(?) Study the feasibility and profitability of two new profit models usingprincipal-agent model—"To construct computer leasing network" and "To issuesmall money cards for network".Despite the earning of these services is not the decisive for huge FTNSoperator, "many a little makes mickle" may have more practical significance.Summing up, the transformation of FTNS operator is studied by mathematicmodeling in this dissertation. Using these models, we corroborate the conclusionswhich we are already familiar with and get some new ones, such as integratingInternet industry chain vertically by FTNS operator does not destroy theconcordant development of industry chain, whether the operator joining is not thekey of industry rise and fall. The quality of an enterprise’s content and service is atrump for victory.更多还原