【作者】 郭卫东；

【导师】 忻展红；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 当今世界，信息、生物、材料和能源等高技术及其产业迅猛发展，科学的交叉融合和技术集成将导致重大的创新突破，科技特别是战略高技术日益成为经济和社会发展的决定性力量。面对新的机遇和挑战，美国、日本、英国、德国和韩国等国家通过开展技术预见和国家关键技术选择研究，从本国经济社会发展的需求出发，探索未来科学技术的发展方向，确定优先发展的战略重点，为政府制定科技发展战略和科技政策提供依据，为产业界和广大社会公众提供未来科技发展信息。未来20年是我国经济社会发展的重大战略机遇期，也是科学技术发展的重大战略机遇期。因此，研究制定我国科技发展战略，选择适合我国国情，且能促进经济社会发展的关键技术进行重点突破，支撑和引领经济社会全面协调与可持续发展，是我们面临的紧迫任务。本论文将技术预见、国家关键技术选择、关键技术创新模式几个部分有机地结合起来进行系统研究，对技术预见方法组合模型、国家关键技术选择模型以及创新模式理论方法展开研究，在理论方法及模型构建方面进行了探索性的研究。论文研究工作包括以下六个部分：第一章对论文选题的背景和研究意义，国内外相关研究现状，论文的研究思路和技术路线，以及论文的主要创新点进行了概述性的介绍。第二章主要以理论概述为主，介绍技术预见、国家关键技术与选择、技术创新、技术价值评估方法等相关概念、理论和方法，并对它们的相互关系进行了研究。第三章主要是技术预见理论方法研究。技术预见理论方法包括：引文分析、德尔菲调查、情景分析、社会经济需求分析和技术监测与跟踪五个板块。首先通过引文分析方法识别快速发展的前沿研究领域，为参与德尔菲调查的预见专家提供科学技术发展前沿信息；第二是社会经济需求分析，其主要目的就是分析科学技术在多大程度上满足了经济社会发展的需求；第三是进行德尔菲调查，遴选那些有可能给经济和社会带来最大化效益的研究领域和关键技术群；第四是对重要科技领域进行情景分析，其主要目的是通过更客观的视角推演未来发展情景，帮助专家们就未来达成共识，是德尔菲法的有益补充。第五是技术监测与跟踪分析，其目的是为技术管理与决策提供动态、准确的科学技术发展状态，识别颠覆性技术，从而把握技术机会。引文分析、德尔菲调查、情景分析、社会经济需求分析以及技术监测分析五个板块协同工作，共同完成技术预见的实践。第四章是关于国家关键技术选择模型研究。应用技术的分析与评估方法，根据国家关键技术的特性，建立国家关键技术选择模型。以技术预见实践所选择的通用新技术和关键技术群为基础，运用该模型对我国关键技术进行了综合分析和评估，得出我国国家关键技术，并将本文研究结果与我国其它相关研究进行了对比分析。第五章是关于国家关键技术创新模式及选择研究。由于国家关键技术特性，本文研究得出国家关键技术创新模式宏观路径与一般技术创新模式宏观路径有所不同。并应用实物期权方法、序贯投资决策理论等方法创建了国家关键技术基于收益的创新模式选择模型。并选择了我国具体的国家关键技术，进行了方法与模型的实证分析和验证。第六章是对全文进行总结，指出论文研究存在的不足，并提出后续需要进一步研究的问题与方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 In today’s world, high technologies such as information, biotechnology, new materials and energy, etc. as well as corresponding industries are undergoing rapid development; the cross converging and the integration of science and technologies will lead to major innovations and breakthroughs; technologies, especially strategic high technologies are becoming the decisive strength for economic and social development. Confronted with new opportunities and challenges, many countries such as USA, Japan, UK, Germany and Korea, etc. pursue the research of technology foresight and national critical technology selection, explore the direction of science and technology in the future and make sure the priority in national development from the needs of native economy and society so as to provide the basis for the establishment of technological development strategies and policies, and the future technological information for industries and social public.The next 20 years is an important period of strategic opportunity not only for the economic and social development of our country, but also for the development of technology. Therefore, our pressing task is to study and devise strategies for science and technology development, select critical technologies that are suitable to our national conditions and capable of promoting economic and social development for making breakthroughs, and support and lead all-round and harmonious development and sustainable economic development.This dissertation has taken all the followings into account: technology foresight, national critical technology selection, technology innovation model in our country, and has done tentative researches on the construction of technology foresight methods model, the national critical technology selection model and the theory and method of the innovation model.This dissertation is composed of 6 chapters. Chapter one focuses on the introduction of the research background and the purport of the dissertation, and constructs the dissertation’ framework, the hypotheses and the core innovation.Chapter two focuses on a summary of technology foresight and technology innovation theory based on the related oversea research results, the introduction of technology foresight, national critical technology selection, technology innovation and the method of analyzing and evaluating the technology, and the research of correlation each other.Chapter three focuses on mainly the study of technology foresight theory and method. Technology foresight theory and method include five parts of Bibliometrics analysis, Study on social and economic needs, Delphi analysis, Scenario analysis and Technology Monitoring. Firstly the chapter introduces how to identify rapidly developing research areas by bibliometrics analysis, Main objective of this study is to help foresight experts to know well research fronts, especially basic research; secondly the chapter relates to Study on Social and Economic Needs, there is established method of collecting information on socio-economic needs, linking them with specific areas of science and technology, and assessing the potential contribution of science and technology to realizing these needs; Thirdly the chapter related to Delphi survey, aimed to determine research fields that are of strategic importance, and select critical technology clusters that can make greater contributions to economic and social development; Fourthly the chapter related to Scenario Analysis in important scientific and technological fields, Scenario Analysis is a complementary study to the Delphi analysis, to make a target of consensus among experts through forecasting the future progressive scenarios. Fifthly the chapter related to Technology monitoring, aimed to monitor the disruptive technology dynamically so as to help technology managers identify and grasp Technology Opportunities. The five methods work cooperatively to finish technology foresight practice.Chapter four focuses on the selection method and model of the national critical technology in our country. With the method of analyzing and evaluating the technology, I construct the model for selecting national critical technology. The model has taken into account the national critical technology factors and market demand factors to do thorough analysis. Then according to the model of selecting critical technology, I did the general analysis and assessment of the critical technology based on technology foresight result in our country and got critical technology clusters. Through the contrasting, I found this model possesses preferably coherence and superiority compared with past national critical technology selection.Chapter five focuses on the theory and method of the innovation mode of the national critical technology selection. Due to national critical technological characteristics, the conclusion based on the national critical technology innovation path in this study is different from general technology innovation path. Besides, this paper adopts the real option method, the serial investment decision-making theory to create the model of innovation model selection based on income approach of the national critical technology. Then I chose the concrete national critical technology and did the practical test and analysis according to the model.Chapter six makes a conclusion of the study progress besides indicating the promising research fields.更多还原