基于复杂性理论的质量系统分析

【作者】 耿金花；

【导师】 高齐圣；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 系统理论， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 科技进步的推动和市场需求的拉动使质量系统日益巨型化和复杂化，已演变为一个典型的复杂系统，出现了一些以往的理论和方法无法解决的问题。复杂性科学研究系统及其复杂性，是系统科学发展的新阶段，必将对21世纪的质量系统研究产生重要影响。本文以质量系统为研究对象，应用复杂性理论和方法，建立产品质量改进模型、顾客满意度模型，分析产品市场网络演化特性。论文研究涉及质量管理和复杂性理论的基础理论、方法及应用，论文主要内容如下：在对质量概念、质量管理理论以及质量系统的发展演化进行回顾的基础上，对质量系统的复杂系统特性进行了全面分析，论述了质量系统是个典型的复杂系统，产品质量改进是个典型的复杂适应系统。NK模型被用于质量系统的刻画和创新研究。通过对NK模型思想的理解，文中提出了三种NK模型的定量化描述形式。对基本数据组合处理方法进行了改进，并将其应用于橡胶产品质量改进。在论述顾客满意度模型是具有二分类因变量的非线性模型的基础上，提出了一种含潜在变量的Logistic联立方程模型。首先采用因子分析法提取影响满意度和忠诚度的潜在变量，然后对它们与满意与否，忠诚与否进行Logistic回归，建立了一个递归联立方程模型，并结合社区满意度实例进行了实证研究。在介绍基本BA生长网络模型的基础上，提出了扩展BA生长网络模型，并证明了该模型的主方程与非线性Polya过程模型的等价性。进而探讨了描述顾客选择行为的概率函数类别对产品市场宏观行为的影响，包括线性概率模型、Logistic模型和抽样OC曲线模型等及其不动点分析。并结合实例进行了说明和验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 Triggered by the improvement of the science and technology and the market demand, quality system increasingly becomes giant and complex and has evolved into a typical complex system. Thus some problems, which can’t be solved with previous theories and methods, emerged. As a new stage of system science, complexity science studies systems and their complexity. It will have great influence on the reaserch of quality system in the 21 st century.In this dissertation, we focus on the quality system. The theories and analytic methods of complexity science are applied to establish quality improvement model, customer satisfaction model and analyze the evolution of the product market network. These studies involve the fundamental theories, methods and application in many fields, such as quality management, complexity theory and so on.The main contents in this paper can be summarized as follows:Firstly, based on the review of the development of the quality ideas, quality management and quality system, we analyze the characteristics of the quality system expounding that the quality system is a typical complex system and the product quality improvement is a typical complex adaptive system.Secondly, NK model is used to depict the quality system and study its innovation. Three quantitative description forms of NK model are presented in this paper based on the idea of NK model.Thirdly, we improve the GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) and apply it to rubber quality improvement.Fourthly, the customer satisfaction model is a nonlinear model with dichotomous dependent variables. This paper presents a logistic simultaneous equations model with latent variables. Factor analysis is used to extract the latent variables which affect the satisfaction and loyalty. Logistic regression can be done with the latent variables and the two dependent variables--the customer satisfaction and loyalty, then a recursive simultaneous equations model are established. Finally, an example about community satisfaction is given to validate the model above.Finally, based on the introduction of the BA growing networks, an extended BA model is proposed in this paper. The equivalence of master equation and Polya process model has been proved by the theory of probability. According to this, we discuss some kinds of probability functions, which depict the customers’ choice, including linear probability model, Logistic model, and OC curve model. With these models and the analysis of their fixed points, the influence on the macroscopical behavior of the market is investigated. At last, several examples are given to illustrate and validate the conclusion of this paper.更多还原