【作者】 黄强；

【导师】 陶德馨；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 机械设计及理论， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文系统地研究了长江航运物流发展的现状、战略定位、需求、目标、部署和措施，对长江航运物流需求进行了界定和预测，建立了较为合理的长江航运物流发展目标评价体系，系统地研究了长江航运发展物流的时间和空间部署，提出了长江航运物流发展的战略重点和战略措施。长江航运以其运量大、成本低、能耗小、投资省、占地少以及港口枢纽的综合优势成为在区域物流发展中占有突出的地位。2003年沿江六省二市完成水运量7.26亿吨，占全社会货运量的17％；水运货物周转量1.03万亿吨公里，占全社会货运量和货物周转量的64.14％，其中长江干线航运2003年货运量3.2亿吨，比2002年增长6％。沿江大型企业生产所需80％的铁矿石、72％的原油、83％的电煤是依靠长江水运来保障的。长江航运物流目前已进入快速发展期，在基础设施建设、市场主体及发展环境等方面均呈现良好势头，但还存在缺乏总体发展战略及规划、地区间物流要素发展不平衡、物流基础设施不够完善，物流理念与航运企业融合程度不高及航运物流人才缺乏等问题。长江航运的物流发展是必然且必须的选择。以物流理念与航运发展的融合为长江航运物流发展的基础，进一步突出港口枢纽的优势，培育具有竞争力的航运物流企业，加强物流资源整合，强化运输通道和信息通道建设，以及加强航运物流人才队伍的培养与建设，是从国内外物流业发展的实践中获得的启示。长江沿江地区初步形成了上、中、下游分别以重庆、武汉、南京和上海为中心的区域经济态势，自然资源较为丰富，加工能力大，并基本形成沿江产业带，同时外向型经济发展迅速，长江沿江地区对外开放将进一步扩大。利用历史年份的数据，采用时间序列模型、线性回归、指数平滑等定量方法，并对各项预测指标的历史发展趋势做必要性分析判断，同时参考有关规划部门和交通运输部门所作的规划，分析众多约束条件，选择重要约束因素，对应用各种方法所得到的预测结果加以限定调整。并邀请在物流需求预测方面富有经验的专家对预测结果进行分析，预测长江沿江六省二市货运总量2010年、2020年将分别达到70.5亿吨、117亿吨左右。预计2010年区域内全社会库存总量为83.5亿吨；2020年全社会库存总量为135亿吨。长江干线2010年货运量达到5.9亿吨，与2003年比年均增长率分别为7.1％；2020年货运量达到8.0亿吨，2010-2020年年均增长率分别为3.1％。在信息化需求方面，预计2010年～2020年长江港航EDI信息中心将加快建立，成为长江航运物流信息平台建设的突破口。长江航运物流的战略定位为：沿江经济发展的有力支撑，长江经济带区域经济协调发展及扩大对外开放的重要保障，长江航运战略优势的集中体现，是建设节约型社会的客观要求。根据长江航运物流发展的特点及其环境约束条件，从基础设施建设、行业管理、发展环境、人才培养、约束性评价等五大方面构建长江航运现代物流战略目标体系。并针对2020年长江航运现代物流发展可能达到的水平，初步拟定超前型、适度超前型、适应型三种目标方案。针对战略目标的三个基础方案，利用层次分析法计算各个方案的权重系数，从而选择最优方案适度超前型。长江航运发展现代物流总体战略目标为：依托长江沿江经济发展，运用现代物流理念，以航道建设为基础，以港口物流中心(园区)建设和发展为核心，以信息系统发展为先导，用15年左右的时间建立起物畅其流、成本低廉、便捷高效、安全可靠、节能环保、层次分明、结构合理，与沿江经济发展相适应并适度超前的专业化、社会化及现代化长江航运现代物流服务体系。长江沿江地区物流发展的总体格局为：下游构造以上海、南京二市为核心，适应全球经济一体化的国际物流中心；中游构造以武汉市为核心，以中转、分拨功能为主，辐射全国的区域性物流中心和地方性物流中心集群；上游构造以重庆市为核心的、以产品集并、分拨功能为主，辐射西部的区域性物流中心和地方性物流中心链。将长江港口物流园区界定为国际物流中心、区域性物流中心、地方性物流中心和港口物流园区四个层次。运用模糊划分聚类分析的方法对长江港口进行分类，适宜于建设区域性物流中心的港口有南京港、武汉港、重庆港；适宜于建设成为地方性物流中心的港口有宜宾港、泸州港、万州港、宜昌港、岳阳港、黄石港、九江港、安庆港、芜湖港、马鞍山港、镇江港、苏州港、南通港等13个；适宜于建设成为港口物流园区的港口有有水富港、涪陵港、巴东港、枝城港、荆州港、洪湖港、鄂州港、武穴港、池州港、铜陵港、扬州港、常州港，泰州港、江阴港等14个。上海港以其地缘优势及无可比拟的软硬件条件成为建设国际物流中心的最佳选择。长江航运物流发展要充分发挥政府的推进作用，在港口物流系统布局及物流支持保障系统建设等关键环节实现重点突破。第一阶段(2010年)重点突破关键环节；第二阶段(2015年)发展长江航运核心区域的物流；第三阶段(2020年)全面提升长江航运品质，建立合理的长江航运物流体系。其重点实施战略为：首先，完善长江航运港口物流系统的空间布局及建设；其次，完善长江航运物流支持保障系统建设；第三，推进船型标准化、船舶大型化、专业化进程；第四，优化长江航运物流发展环境：第五，加大专业化的物流人才培养力度。要树立长江航运优势战略、突出以港口为核心的物流发展战略、强化航道优先发展战略、强化信息先导发展战略、强化市场整合战略、培养和引进物流人才的战略等。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper systemically researches the present situations, strategic positioning, demands, goals, arrangements and measures of the Changjiang shipping logistics development, makes the definitions and predictions for the Changjiang shipping logistics demands, establishes a more reasonable goal valuation system, systemically researches the arrangement in time and space of the Changjiang shipping logistics development and proposes the strategic important points and strategic measures of the Changjiang logistics development.The Changjiang shipping always occupies important position in the regional logistics development because of great freight volume, low cost, save investment, less occupied land, combined advantages of ports and hubs. In 2003 the water volume completed by six provinces and two municipalities under the Central Government along the Changjiang River had reached 726 million tons that accounted for 17% of total social freight volumes; the circular flow volume of the water transport goods was 1,030 billion ton-kilometers that accounted for 64.14% of total social freight volume and the circular flow volume. In which in 2003 the freight volume completed by the Changjiang main-line shipping was 320 million tons, the increasing rate was 6% comparing with 2002. 80% iron ore, 72% crude oil, and 83% power coal needed by the large-size enterprises along the Changjiang River are guaranteed by the water transport of the Changjiang River.At present the Changjiang shipping logistics has entered into a rapid development period. The excellent tread in basic facility construction, market main body and development environment has appeared. But some issues still exist, for example, the general development strategy and plan are short, the development of logistics elements between regions is unbalanced, the basic facility of logistics is not enough complete, the fusion degree between logistics idea and shipping enterprises is not high and the shipping logistics talents are short and so on. The logistics development of the Changjiang shipping is an inevitable and necessary selection. Taking the fusion between the logistics idea and the shipping development as the base of the Changjiang shipping logistics development, further exerting the advantages of ports and hubs, fostering shipping logistics enterprises with competitive power, strengthening the integration of logistics resources, enhancing constructions of transport channels and information channels, and promoting grows and constructions of shipping logistics talent teams and so on all of these are the inspiration drew from the practices of logistics development at home and abroad.In the area along the Changjiang River the state of regional economies has been basically formed that respectively takes Chongqing, Wuhan, both Nanjiang and Shanghai as the center of the Changjiang upper beaches, middle breaches and lower beaches. Due to here there are rich natural resources, great fabrication capacity; an industrial band along the Changjiang River has been basically formed. At the same time the export-oriented economies in these regions have been developed rapidly and the steps of opening to the outside world will be accelerated. Our research methods are: using historically yearly data, adopting quantitative methods such as time sequence model, linear regression, exponential smoothing and so on to make necessity analysis and judgment for the historic development treads of various prediction index; at the same time referring plans made by relevant planning departments and traffic transport departments, analyzing numerous constraint conditions and selecting major constraint factors, and finally making limit and adjustment for the prediction results obtained from various used methods. In addition it is very necessary to invite some specialists who have rich experience in logistics demand prediction to analyze the prediction results. The prediction results show in 2010 and 2020 the total freight volume completed by six provinces and two municipalities under the Central Government along the Changjiang River will respectively reach about 7.05 and 11.7 billion tons; in 2010 the all-social total storage in area will be 8.35 billion tons; in 2020 will be 13.5 billion tons. In 2010 the freight volume of the Changjiang main-line will be 590 million tons, the average yearly increasing rate will be 7.1% comparing with 2003; in 2020 the freight volume of the Changjiang main-line will be 800 million tons, during the period of 2010～2020 the average yearly increasing rate will be 3.1%. In the demand of information, the prediction shows during the period of 2010～2020 the EDI information center of the Changjiang Ports and Shipping will be rapidly established and become a breach of the Changjiang shipping logistics information platform construction. The strategic positioning of the Changjiang shipping logistics is: the powerful support of the economic development along the Changjiang River, the important guarantee of the coordinate development of regional economies along the Changjiang economic band and the expansion of opening to outside world, the concentric reflection of the Changjiang shipping strategic advantages and the objective requirements of constructing save-type society in China.Based on the characteristics of the Changjiang shipping logistics development and its environment constraint conditions the Changjiang shipping modern logistics strategic goal system shall be constituted in five main aspects, they are: basic facility construction, industrial management, development environment, talent training and constraint valuation. In addition based on the prediction for the possible reached level of the Changjiang shipping modern logistics development in 2020, three goal plans, including leading type, moderate leading type or appropriate type shall be primarily worked out. Then based on the three basic plans of statistic goals and utilizing level analysis method to calculate the weight factor each plan, the results show the moderate leading type plan shall be selected as the optimum plan. The general goal of the Changjiang shipping modern logistics development is: relying on the economic development along the Changjiang River, applying modern logistics idea, taking the channel construction as the base, taking the construction and development of logistics centers (garden areas) as the nucleus, taking the development of information technology as the leading we plan to spent about 15 years to establish a modern Changjiang shipping logistics service system which will be smooth in material flow, low in cost, convenient and high efficiency, safe and reliable, energy preserve and environment protection, clear in levels, reasonable in structure, suitable to the economic development along the Changjiang River, moderate leading, specialization, modernization and socialization.The general arrangement of logistics development of the regions along the Changjiang River is: in the lower beaches an international logistics center whose nucleus is both Shanghai and Nanjing shall be constituted which will be suitable to the whole world economic integration; in the middle beaches the regional logistics center and local logistics central group whose nucleus is Wuhan shall be constituted whose main functions are: transit shipment and distribution radiating to whole country; in the upper beaches the regional logistics center and local logistics central chain whose nucleus is Chongqing shall be constituted whose main functions are: product collection and distribution radiating to the China west area. If the Changjiang port logistics garden areas are divided into four levels: international logistics center, regional logistics center, local logistics center and port logistics garden area, applying fuzzy cluster analysis method to classify all the Changjiang ports, the Nanjing port, the Wuhan port and the Chongqing port are suitable to be build as the port of regional logistics center. The Yibin port, the Luzhou port, the Wanzhou port, the Yichang port, the Yueyang port, the Huangshi port, the Jiujiang port, the Anqing port, the Wuhu port, the Ma’anshan port, the Zhenjiang port, the Suzhou port, the Nantong port, total 13 ports are suitable to be build as the port of local logistics center. The Shuifu port, the Fuling port, the Badong port, the Zhicheng port, the Jingzhou port, the Honghu port, the Ezhou port, the Wuxue port, the Chizhou port, the Tongling port, the Yangzhou port, the Changzhou port, the Taizhou port, the Jiangyin port, total 14 ports are suitable to be build as the port logistics garden area. The Shanghai port with excellent geographical advantages and incomparable software and hardware conditions is the best selection as the international logistics center.In the development of the Changjiang shipping logistics the driven role of all-level governments shall be fully exerted. The essential breakthrough in the key links such as the arrangement of port logistics systems and the construction of logistics supporting and guarantee systems shall be achieved. In the first stage (up to 2010) the key links shall be broken through; in the second stage (2015) the logistics in the nuclear areas of the Changjiang shipping shall be developed; in the third stage (2020) the Changjiang shipping quality shall be overall promoted and the reasonable Changjiang shipping logistics systems shall be established. The essential implement strategy is: first improving the space arrangement and construction of the Changjiang shipping port logistics systems; secondly, improving the construction of the Changjiang shipping logistics supporting and guarantee systems; third, driving the progress of standardization and specialization in ship type and developing large-scale ships; fourth, optimizing the environment of the Changjiang shipping logistics development; fifth, fostering with great efforts the professional logistics talents. Our tasks are: setting-up the Changjiang shipping advantage strategy, laying stress on the logistics development strategy taking ports as the nucleus, strengthening the channels priority development strategy, strengthening the information leading development strategy, strengthening the market integration strategy, fostering and introducing logistics talents strategy and so on.更多还原