【作者】 高艳梅；

【导师】 曲福田；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 工业化和城市化是一个国家或地区实现现代化的必由之路，也是经济社会发展中的必然现象。因此，在其工业化、城市化进程中，将不可避免的伴随着经济、社会和文化等各方面的变迁，从而产生一系列的社会、经济问题。而土地问题则无疑是其中非常敏感而关键且波及效应十分强烈的一个问题，这不仅仅是单纯的农业用地向非农用地的转化，同时还涉及到对农业用地进行高效利用和保护问题，涉及到生存的安全和可持续的发展。目前，我国正处于工业化和城市化的快速起飞阶段，工业化水平的快速递增和城市化规模的急剧扩张，土地资源及其环境正面临着巨大压力，导致农地质量出现肥力下降和环境质量恶化的现象也是时有报道。而农地质量的退化必将对粮食安全、食品安全、农产品贸易和生态安全带来严重的影响，进而可能成为社会经济可持续发展的制约因素。“十一五”时期，我国仍将保持城市化率每年提高1.0％-1.3％的增速，到2010年我国城市化率将达到48％-50％，2020年将达到55％-60％左右。可见，我国的城市化水平在未来一段时期内仍将保持快速发展趋势。据国务院发展研究中心，“十一五”期间，我国GDP增长速度大体上能够保持年均8％～8.5％，到2010年人均GDP为1700～2000美元，接近中等收入国家的平均水平，2020年人均GDP可以达到3200美元，跨入上中等收入国家的门槛，工业化开始向深度加工化阶段转换，工业将保持略高于国内生产总值的增长速度，预计2010年以后会进入基本稳定时期。因此在如此高速经济增长和快速工业化、城市化发展的背景下，研究农地质量变化具有重要的现实意义。工业化、城市化对农地质量影响研究，主要是回答工业化、城市化影响下农地质量如何变化以及为什么这样变化两个问题。农地质量如何变化是研究基础，而更为重要的是在分析农地质量变化趋势的基础上，找出农地质量变化的深层次原因，探讨导致这种变化的机理。因此，本文在简要介绍了研究目的意义、研究内容、基本概念、基础理论，回顾了国内外研究动态之后，就首先从理论上构建了一个工业化、城市化对农地质量变化影响机理的分析框架，并对这个框架进行详细、深入的分析。这个分析框架不仅从理论上揭示了工业化、城市化对农地质量变化的影响因素、作用途径，而且为后面深入、系统的实证研究提供了一个必要的分析视角、范围和逻辑结构。接下来，本研究选择江阴、锡山作为典型研究区域，以80年代初和2000年为研究时点，从宏观上分析研究区域工业化、城市化影响下的农地质量时间、空间演变规律及特征。这章主要是回答工业化、城市化影响下的农地质量如何变化的问题。在对工业化、城市化对农地质量影响机理的理论分析和研究区域农地质量时空变化趋势分析之后，本研究应用80年代初和2000年研究区域61个镇的混合截面数据，应用计量经济模型来实证的研究工业化、城市化对农地质量变化的影响方向以及影响程度。这是对工业化、城市化影响下农地质量变化影响机理的实证检验。通过以上研究，本研究得到以上主要研究结论：(1)从近期来看，研究区域农地质量并没有严重退化，但从长期来看，农地质量潜在退化不容忽视；从空间变化上来看，农地质量的空间变化格局体现出人为作用的影响，且越靠近中心城市影响越强烈。(2)就本质而言，工业化、城市化对农地质量的影响，是由于产业结构、就业结构变化和农地非农化而引起人们土地利用行为及外部环境的变化而发生作用的，是一个多层次、各影响因素综合作用的结果。(3)实证研究结果表明，工业产值比例、非农就业比例和农地非农化是农地质量变化的主要影响因素。从影响方向及程度来看，工业产值比例增加对土壤酸化产生极大的影响；非农就业比例增加对农地质量变化有明显的负面效应；农地非农化对农地质量退化具有潜在威胁。基于上述的研究结果，文章为今后一个阶段的工业化、城市化发展中，改善和提高农地质量以及社会经济政策调整提供一些启示，主要包括：调整和优化产业结构，走新型工业化道路，减少农地污染压力；集约利用建设用地，走城市土地高效利用之路，缓解非农占用压力；保障农民土地产权，完善农地流转制度，促进农户增加农业投入；依托公共财政，建立耕地保护经济激励机制，激发农户耕地保护积极性；加大科技投入，应用先进技术，建立和完善农地质量变化动态监测系统等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrialization and urbanization is the only way to realize modernization in a country or region, and is the inevitable phenomenon in the economic and social development also. Therefore, its industrialization and urbanization process will unavoidable result in a series of society and economy problems with the changes of economy, society and culture, and land problem is one of the most sensitive and sharp problem, undoubtedly, which not only relates to the farmland conversion, farmland use and farmland protection, but also relates to ecologic safe and social sustainable development. Nowadays, our country is being in the fast stage of industrialization and urbanization, land resource and environment faced heave pressure, with the industrialization level increase progressively and urbanization scale expansionism rapidly. The soil fertility dropping and environmental quality worsening is reported from time to time also. However, the degeneration of farmland quality must bring serious influence for food safety, the trade of agricultural products and ecological safety, and then will maybe the restriction factor of society and economy sustainable development.Since 1980’s, the urbanization process have entered a high speed development stage, and its speed have been close to the average level of developing country. The urbanization of our country possibility will complete the fast development stage in 30～40 years, and urbanization ration will reach 70%. Accordingly, in future the urbanization ratio will be about 1 times of annual growth ratio of 1978～1998’s. Therefore, the study on the changes of farmland quality is so important.and significant, under the background of fast economy growth and the industrialization and urbanization.In fact, the study of industrialization, urbanization and farmland, mainly resolve two problems which one is how industrialization and urbanization influence the change of farming land quality and why the quality is changes on the way. How to change of farm land quality is the research foundation, however, the farther reasons and mechanism of its changes are more important. Therefore, after the research background, the literature of domestic and international research, research content, theoretical concepts, basic theory are introduced briefly, then, the study fotmded the analyzing framework of the mechanism of farmland quality change under the industrialization and urbanization, and analyzed the frame thoroughly. This analysis frame not only revealed the factors and ways of industrialization and urbanization influencing on farmland quality, but also, it is necessary for the choice of analytical angle, scope and logical structure of next positive studies.Then, the paper taking Jiangyin City and Xishan City. as research sample, and analyze the change rules and characters of farmland that is affected by industrialization and urbanization, with the data of beginning of 1980’s and 2000. The chapter is mainly reply how to change of farmland quality by the effected of industrialization and urbanization.After analyzing the affecting mechanism and tendency of farmland quality, the paper take the time and panel data of 61 of Jiangyin and Xishan counties to construct econometrical models, and demonstration the affecting ways and degree of farmland quality changes under industrialization and urbanization affected. This chapter is the answer of why the farmland quality change.Main conclusions are put forward as follows:(1) Farmland quality of study regions have not degenerate seriously under industrialization and urbanization in the short time, however, some soil quality factors degeneration do not allow to overlook as soil available fertility and pH in the long time; the change of soil quality with spatial show that the change of farmland quality is effected by human activities, and the more near the central city, the more degenerate.(2) For essence, industrialization and urbanization affecting on farmland quality are due to the changes of land use behaviors and environment change that are influenced by changes of industry structure, employment structure and farming land conversion, and are the synthesize result that multi-level, multi-factor affected.(3) We can learn that the proportion of industrial output value, non-agriculture employment and farming land conversion are the major factors that influence the changes of farmland quality from the results of the empirical analysis. From the influence ways and degree, the proportion growth of industrial output value influencing on soil acidification is remarkable; the proportion increase of non-agriculture employment has negative affecting on change of farmland quality; the farm land conversion has potential threat to farmland degradation.In the end, based on the above results of the studies, the thesis puts forward some policy suggestions for the farmland quality improving in the future in the process of industrialization and urbanization, including: adjust and optimize industrial structure of enterprises, so can reduce pollution emission; improve the efficiency of constructive land use, so can slow down the pressure of construction occupying on farm land; normalize and perfect farm land transformation system, so can promote the increase of peasant household’s putting in the farmland; rely on the public finance, establish economic encourage mechanism of farmland protection, arouse enthusiasm of the farmer household to protect the land;increase scientific and technological application, apply the advanced technique, establishment and perfect the farming inspection system of farmland quality change, and so on.更多还原