【作者】 张安；

【导师】 刘希宋；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代以后，随着信息技术的飞速发展，信息产业已经成为国际上一个热门的研究领域，它吸引了管理、经济、科技和情报等众多领域学者从不同的角度对其发展规律、对经济社会的影响、发展战略和发展模式等方面进行了研究。在各类研究中，对信息产业对经济结构和就业影响进行系统分析的文献相对较少；就信息产业对经济增长影响的定量研究主要集中于传统的回归分析；对信息产业发展的评价研究已经建立了较多的评价体系，但缺乏实证分析。基于此本论文从以下方面展开研究，旨在为我国信息产业发展提供借鉴。首先，论文构建了信息产业对国民经济发展影响的研究体系框架，分析了世界和我国信息产业发展现状，研究了世界信息产业发展为我们提供的借鉴，分析了我国信息产业的区域发展模式；定量研究了信息产业对经济增长、经济结构和就业的影响，分析了信息产业重点行业对国民经济的影响，对信息产业发展能力进行评价，对黑龙江省信息产业发展进行了实证分析，从理论与实践的结合上对信息产业的发展进行了深入的研究。第二，论文引入时间序列计量经济学中的协整分析理论与方法，就信息产业对经济增长的影响进行了定量研究，实证了信息产业发展是经济增长的格兰杰因果关系，得出信息产业的对数值增长1％，会促使GDP的对数值增长0.4666％；通过脉冲响应方法证明信息产业对经济增长有长期、稳定的拉动作用。论文建立了信息产业对经济增长贡献模型，通过多元线性回归方法求出信息产业和三大产业对经济增长的边际贡献率，当前信息产业对我国经济增长的贡献率为4.52％，而第二产业的贡献率为45.79％，表明我国还处于工业化社会，信息产业对经济增长的作用开始显现，但离信息经济时代还有较长的路要走。第三，论文就信息产业对就业的影响进行了定量研究。实证了信息产业的发展与就业总量之间存在着协整关系，信息产业对就业总量的长期影响是持久、稳定和正向的；论文通过研究信息产业增加值占GDP比重与第三产业就业人口占总就业人口比重间的协整关系，研究了信息产业对就业结构的影响，实证了大力发展信息产业，能够对优化就业结构起到持久的推动作用。这些研究弥补了前人有关研究的空白，具有较高的应用价值。第四，应用灰色关联度分析理论构建了信息产业发展能力评价模型，建立了相应的评价体系，取得了相关的统计数据对全国各省市信息产业发展进行了评价，计算了各省市的信息产业发展能力，通过对黑龙江省信息产业发展能力的实证分析，确定了2001年黑龙江省信息产业发展能力在全国居第16位。最后，论文在以上研究的基础上，提出了我国信息产：业发展对策建议。论文的模型分析与定量研究对于我国推进信息产业快速、持续发展具有较强的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 After 1990’s, since information technique （IT） has been developing apace, the study on information industry has become an international hot subject. The scholars who came from management, economy, science and technology, information etc. have been attracted by the research; they study the information industry’s development regulation, the influences upon economy and society, development strategy, development model etc. from different point of view, In various studies, few researches which study the influences of information industry to economic structure and employment can not be found easily; the quantitative study of the influence of information industry to economic growth fasten their attention on traditional regression analysis; the studies of evaluation of information industry development have built up many systems, the substantial quantitative study of evaluation is absent. The paper’s study aims at providing a theoretic support to develop our countries’ information industry.Firstly, the paper builds up system framework of research on influence of information industry on national economy, and analyses the current situation of Chinese information industry. The foreign experiences of the development of overseas information industry are studied in the paper. The paper analyses the regional model of information industry of our country. The advanced research of the paper which studies the development of information industry is the combination of theory and practice.Secondly, the paper quantitatively studies the influence of information industry on economic growth using the cointegration test in time series econometric analysis, positively researches the development of information industry is the Granger cause of economic growth, when the logarithm of information industry increases 1%, the logarithm of GDP increases 0.4666%; the paper proves that the development of information industry has the long-term and stable contribution to economic growth by impulse response. The paper founds the model of information industries’ contribution to economic growth, calculates the marginal contributing ratio of information industry and the three major industries to economic growth using multiple linear regression analysis, the ratio of information industry is 4.52%, the ratio of the second mdustry is 45.79%, these ratios indicate that our country is still in the industrialization society, information industries’ contribution to economic growth has occurred, there is a long way to the informatization society.Thirdly, the paper quantitatively studies the influence of information industry to employment for the first time. The paper positively researches that there is a cointegration relation between the development of information industry and employment, the contribution of information industry to the total employment is continual, stable and positive. Studying the cointegration relation of the ratio of information industry to GDP and the ratio of third industries’ employment to total employment, the paper positively studies that the development of information industry can present contribution to optimize employment structure, there is a cointegration relation between the development of information industry and employment, the contribution of information industry to the total employment is continual, stable and positive. These studies make up the blank in former researches and are of great practical value.Fourthly, the paper designs an evaluation model of Heilongjiang’s information industry, builds homologous evaluation system, obtains the related statistical data and evaluates each province’s information industry for the first time, confirms that Heilongjiang’s information industry development force ranks the 16^th in our country.Finally, the paper presents countermeasures and suggestion to develop our countries’ information industry. The model analysis and quantitative studies can give the direction which develop our countries’ information industry fastly and continually.更多还原