中国区域能源经济与环境规制

【作者】 冯等田；

【导师】 李国璋；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 能源和环境是可持续发展的重要基础。随着经济的快速增长，能源发展和环境保护已经成为我国区域经济社会可持续发展能力建设的首要任务和基本目标。实证分析表明，我国区域能源发展与环境保护存在诸多问题：一是我国能源消费呈快速增加趋势，中长期经济的快速增长需要能源消费的较快增长，能源短缺特别是优质能源资源短缺问题严重。从区域来看，国内富能省区趋于减少，缺能区能源自给率下降。到2005年，全国富能省区已从上世纪80年代的12个减少为7个；缺能区能源自给率下降，能源主要消费地区，如广东、江苏、浙江、上海、北京的能源自给率已不足30％；我国泛珠江三角洲、环渤海和长江三角洲已成为全国主要缺能区。三片区域能源需求将近全国的一半，自给率仅40％，占全国缺能省区缺能总量的四分之三。二是能源价格不断上涨，以能源消费价值量计算的能源经济效率低下，区域能源—经济统筹协调发展面临挑战。三是以化石燃料为主的能源结构导致的环境安全问题严重。从区域看，近年来全国三大区域二氧化硫（SO₂）排放量均呈先降后升态势，人均SO₂排放量也呈先降后升态势。从这些基本问题出发，围绕我国能源与经济增长的关系、区域能源及其环境问题、能源与环境的可持续发展，在总量分析的基础上进行结构研究。分析了能源需求增长的主要影响因素以及能源价格较快上升对能源消费弹性和能源经济效率的影响，研究了主要缺能区的能源消费、区域能源经济效率以及环境影响，探讨了“双重红利”假设与能源税改革的关系以及能源开发利用中环境规制的经济激励制度。研究发现：（1）我国工业化水平的提高从长期来看有利于提高能源效率。（2）全国工业总规模的增长是工业能源需求增长的诱因，而能源利用效率因素发挥了主要的节能作用。相比之下，通过有目的地调整工业结构，逐步用能源节约型工业代替高耗能工业，实现结构性节能，效果还不显著。1995-2005年间，全国因工业结构调整所实现的能源节约量只相当于提高能源利用效率产生的节能量的3.3％。（3）从我国改革开放以来能源消费看，能源消费增长率的下降都导致了国民收入增长率更大幅度的下降，从而使能源消费弹性系数上升。（4）能源价格上涨会导致基于投入系数的能源经济效率的下降。（5）区域能源消费需求受人文发展差异、市场化水平等因素的影响：由于人文发展的差异，欠发达地区人均能源消费明显低于发达地区水平；而市场化水平的提高从长期来看是有利于提高能源效率的。（6）随着西、中、东部地区人均收入水平的增加，边际SO₂排放趋于缩小。（7）就针对能源消费过程中排放的污染物征收的环境税而言，“双重红利”假设为能源税改革提供了更为广阔的空间。以上实证研究表明，现阶段我国在重视整体能源发展对经济增长和环境的改变的同时，必须重视区域能源发展差异对经济和环境的影响。为解决区域能源及其环境问题，首先，可借鉴世界主要国家能源战略取向，通过促进经济一体化缩小区域发展差异，以有利于能源、经济和环境的可持续发展。其次，可通过经济激励制度和能源税改革，实施环境友好的能源战略，促进能源节约。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy and environment are important basis of sustainable development. As the economy growing up continually, China’s regional development is facing a greater concrete challenge from its energy supply and environmental protection. In recent years, many changes have taken place. First, Fossil fuel based Energy production and consumption causes air pollution problems, Coal is the dominating energy source for China’s industries, China’s industries presently is the cause of widespread air pollution problems. But China coal consumption is increasing rapidly and substantially; in recent years, non-energy departments have increased their energy consumption level. Secondly, the number of provinces riched in energy has decreased and the energy self-sufficiency of regions lacked energy has droped. The three big engines （Pan-Zhujiang River Delta, Bohai Sea Rim and Yangtze River delta） demand one half of the national energy demand and their energy self- sufficiency is only 40 percent. Thirdly, the effects of China’s air pollution reduces China’s economic output. Particles in air is the main cause, but SO₂ also contributes, SO₂ emission is one of main factors badly influencing sustainable and healthy economic growth in China, improvement of high concentration SO₂ emission is evident, but low-concentration SO₂ emissions worsened. The regions affected by acid rain remained constant, but acidity has increased in some areas.Based on methods such as cointegration test, factor analysis, stochastic front production function, price index and input-output analysis, this paper discovered:（1） The industrialization help increase the energy efficiency in China.（2）The output growth is the mam cause of the growth of energy consumption in industry in China, but the increasing in energy using efficiency has played the main role in energy conservation.（3）There are inverse correlations between energy intensity and technical efficiency in the economy.（4）In mid-west area, the technical efficiency is low due to higher energy intensity.（5）Technical Choice Index has remarkable influence on energy intensity.（6）Regional energy demand level is influenced by human development level and the Index of Economic Freedom.（7）Cost-benefit analysis, integration between sciences and technology innovation, and perfect incentive ecological compensation don’t exist in China so that environmental protection policies don’t satisfy with conditions of perfect-implementation mechanism.Finally, this paper reviews the implementation status of air pollution policy, then gives policy suggestions to SO₂ policy after analyzing successful experience on air pollution reduction in developed countries. On the one hand, good practices show the goals of both air pollution reduction and economic growth could be achieved synchronously; on the other hand, it is a hard job to reduce SO₂ emission under current situation in China. Except optimization of economic and energy structure, policies should focus more on energy efficiency promotion. It is very important to extent environment investment, expand demand and encourage the development of environmental industry.更多还原