【作者】 张正栋；

【导师】 周永章； 夏斌；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学院研究生院（广州地球化学研究所） ， 环境科学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 韩江流域是广东境内仅次于珠江的第二大流域，在广东的经济社会发展中占有十分重要的地位。它是客家文化（中上游）和潮汕文化（下游）的集中分布区，包含了经济特区汕头市和经济欠发达地区梅州市。改革开放以来，流域内土地覆被格局发生了巨大变化，是研究南方湿热丘陵山区小流域LUCC及其生态环境效应的理想场所。本文依托1986年、1996年、2006年的TM卫星影像等数据，应用RS-GIS-GPS集成技术，剖析韩江流域在过去20年间土地利用／覆被变化的过程、驱动机制，预测该流域在不同目标情景模式下的土地利用／覆被变化，评价流域LUCC的生态环境效应以及土地利用可持续性和生态足迹状况。研究结果表明：（1）土地利用／覆被变化具有明显的阶段性。1986～1996年前10年，变化幅度从大到小依次是：未利用地＞林地＞建设用地＞耕地＞水域＞草地；1996～2006年后10年则为：未利用地＞建设用地＞耕地＞林地＞水域＞草地。20年间总体变化顺序是：未利用地＞建设用地＞林地＞耕地＞水域＞草地。（2）各地类的变化存在较大差异。20年间，耕地总量持续减少；林地处于持续增加之中，尤其是后10年来；草地总量总体上呈递增的趋势，在前10年间草地增加较缓，但后10年草地显著增加；建设用地大幅度增加，尤其是后10年来；水域面积逐年增加；未利用地发生了显著的缩减。（3）土地利用／覆被变化空间差异明显。主要表现在丘陵山区（梅州市）和三角洲平原区（汕头市）之间，以及它们内部里人类活动强度不同的地区之间。（4）土地利用／覆被变化是多种因素交织、共同作用的结果。除自然驱动因子外，人口变动、经济发展、农业技术进步、富裕程度、制度与体制、政策法规等是主要的驱动因素。（5）应用CLUE-S模型对韩江流域土地利用／覆被变化进行模拟和预测表明，生念安全目标下林地、草地等地类显著增加，未利用地和耕地大幅减少。食物安全目标下林地和草地会减少，未利用地有所增加。经济发展目标下建设用地快速扩张，耕地（主要是优质良田）会被大量挤占。多目标下的综合发展模式比较全面地考虑到经济发展、生态保护以及粮食安全等需要，土地利用变化比较合理。（6）流域景观破碎化日趋增加。1986-1996年，韩江流域的景观趋于破碎化，拼块的复杂程度和多样性降低，流域生态服务价值指数从6661 yuan．hm^-2．a^-1增加到6687 yuan．hm^-2．a^-1。进入1996—2006年，韩江流域的景观破碎度进一步增加，流域拼块的复杂程度持续降低。生态服务指数从6687 yuan．hm^-2．a（-1）上升到6783 yuan．hm^-2．a^-1，整个流域的生态环境质量开始向好的方向发展。流域的生态价值指数均会出现不同程度的上升。这指示，近20年来实施生态环境保护措施，使得整个流域的生态环境质量开始向好的方向发展。（7）对韩江流域典型区土地利用可持续性评价指示，汕头市各年土地利用持续性值介于70～120，呈现弱可持续性。1994～1998年土地利用持续性逐渐上升，1998～1999年的土地利用持续性有所下降，1999～2000年土地利用持续性有了明显的上升，土地利用持续性的变化是在87左右摆动。（8）对韩江流域典型区生态足迹的评价表明，梅州市的生态足迹需求、供给和赤字都低于全国的平均水平。2004年，全市人均生态足迹为1.1174hm²·cap^-1，实有人均生态生产性面积为0.70634 hm²·cap^-1，人均生态赤字为0.4111 hm²·cap^-1，总人口的生态足迹达到4.28×10⁶ hm²。从1996-2004年，人均生态赤字不断增大，从1996年0.177 hm²／人增长到2004年的0.411 hm²／人。这指示，梅州市区域生态经济系统处于一种相对不可持续的状态，总体上处于“地方不可持续-全球可持续-欠发展”状态。本研究理论和实践的创新之处主要体现在：（1）从实证角度增补了LUCC研究南方湿热丘陵山区小流域区域案例。本研究以中尺度的韩江流域为对象，系统剖析粤东北地区在过去20年间的LUCC过程、驱动力，并进行时空模拟以及景观生态学、土地可持续性和区域可持续发展评价，深化南方湿热丘陵山区小流域水土流失等生态环境问题的认识。（2）通过定性与定量方法相结合，揭示了各因素在韩江流域土地利用／覆被变化中的驱动机制。在各种自然因素驱动的背景下，更加注重各种社会、经济驱动因素及其相互间的相互联系和综合驱动作用分析。（3）运用生态价值指数（EVI）、土地利用可持续性度量法和生态足迹模型，评价区域LUCC对生态坏境质量、区域土地利用可持续性以及整个区域的可持续发展状态。韩江流域的案例展示，这些指标能够可以反映区域LUCC变化的响应。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Shantou Special Eonomic Area and the developing Meizhou City lie in the Han Jiang river Basin, where heavily live the famous Hakka culture and the Chaoshan culture. Since China carried the Open & Reform policy, the land cover pattern of the basin has changed remarkedly. It is considered an ideal place to study LUCC and its entironment effect for small drainage basins in the hill and mountainous areas of South China.Applying the satellite images of Landsat-TM and the integrating techniques of RS, GIS, and GPS, the present study analyzes the processes and driving factors of land use/cover changes in the typical area of the Hanjiang River Basin since the beginning of 1980s, modelling the possible land use/cover changes scenarios in the coming 10 years based on CLUE-S model, and make an evaluation on the entironment effect of the changes ,and evaluates land use sustainable durative and the ecological footprint.It is concluded in the present study that:（1） There is a dramatic staggered change. From the year of 1986 to 1996, the absolute change extent obey the following sequence: no use land > forest land > build land > cultivated land> water > grassland; and from 1996 to 2006, no use land > build land > forest land > cultivated land> water > grassland. Over the past 20 years, no use land > build land > forest land > cultivated land> water > grassland.（2） There is a great difference of all kinds of land changes.From the year of 1986 through 2006, the cultivated land continued decreased. The forest land kept on expanding over the past 20 years with the 1996s as a rapid increasing period, in 1986, the area percentage of forest land is about 71.26%, and 71.76% in 2006. The area percentage of grassland increased from 0.11%,0.12% to 0.18% respectively in the year of 1986, 1996, and 2006. Since 1996, grassland experienced an obvious increase.The percentage of which in the catchment increased from 5.04% ,5.02% to 5.17% respectively in the year of 1986, 1996, and 2006. The area of build land kept on going up with the percentage of 4.97%, 5.75%, and 7.26% respectively in the year of 1986, 1996, and 2006. No use land experienced considerable decrease in 1986 and 2006. （3） There exist obvious spatial differences in land use/cover change. It exhibited mainly between hill and mountainous area （Meizhou city） and delta plain area （Chaoshan）, and also within hill and mountainous area and delta plain area with different human-disturbed characteristic.（4） The change of land use and land cover is result of together operation of all driving factors. Except physical driving factors, over the past 20 years, the change of land use and land cover resulted mainly from economic development, population increase, income increase of local people, market and price,advances in agricultural technology, relevant land policies, as well as economic institution change.（5） Applied CLUE-S model to make a satisfying modeling and prediction on land use/cover change in Hanjiang river basin is found that the forest land and grassland would experience an obvious increase, but no use land and cultivated land decrease greatly under ecological security target scenario; and grassland and forest land would decrease with no use land expanding under food security target scenario; urban land would greatly expand by occupying good cultivated land under economic development target scenario; the all-sided development target scenario could balance the damands of economic development, ecological protection and food security, under which land use change would be more reasonable.（6） The landscape of the Basin tended to become more fragmentized. From 1986 to 1996, the landscape of Hanjiang River Basin tended to become more fragmentized. The patches, in general, became smaller, more even, and less complex. The Ecological Value Index （EVI） of the whole catchment grown upon from 6661 to 6687. From 1996 to 2006, the catchment landscape became more fragmentized as before, and the amount of patches increased, and the average size of patches increased. The patches became more complex with Ecological Value Index rising from 6687 to 6783, as shows that the ecological situation of the catchment was being improved.（7） The appraisal to Shantou’s land utilization sustainable indicates that: （1） land use sustainable take on infirmness sustainable, index of land use sustainable lay between 70 and 120. （2） from 1994 to 2000, index change of land use sustainable is about 87 and is ascend from 1994 to 1998, and is descend from 1998 to 1999, and is ascend from 1999 to 2000.（8） The appraisal to Meizhou’s ecological footprint indicates that the observation of the ecological footprint demand,supply and deficit of Meizhou’s is under the countrywide average. In 2004, the ecological footprint demand of Meizhou city is 1.1174hm²·cap^-1, while the ecological footprint supply is only 0.70634hm²·cap^-1, the ecological deficit is 0.4111hm²·cap^-1, the total ecological footprint is 4.28×10⁶ hm². The ecological footprint deficit of Meizhou’s increased from 0.177 hm²·cap^-1 to 0.411 hm²·cap^-1 from 1996 to 2004. Furthermore, the per capita ecological deficit reveals that the relationship between man and land is more intense. Eco-zoology system of Meizhou get along with unsustinable relatively.Included in the major initial scientific contributions are the following:（1） The study fills up the gap of LUCC regional cases in south wet-hot hill and mountain areas of middle-sized basin. The paper systematically studied the processes, driving forces, spatio-temporal modeling, and made a landscape ecological appraisal, land sustainabl estimate and area sustainable estimate on the land use/cover change over the past 20 years, which deepened understanding of entironmental problems as water and soil loss in south wet-hot hill and mountain areas of middle-sized basin.（2） The integration of quantitative calculation and qualitative analysis effectively revealed the dynamic mechanics of driving factors for the land use/cover change in Hanjiang River Basin. Under the all kinds of physical factorse driving, the paper emphasized the synthesis driving mechanism and interosculations analysis of single societal, and economic factor, and the interaction among the factors.（3） In the ecological appraisal of effect , land sustainabl estimate and area sustainable estimate of land use/cover change, the paper applies Ecological Value Index （EVI）,land sustainable estimate model and the ecological footprint model to make a macroscopic assessment of land use/cover change effect on regional ecological and environmental quality, infection of land use sustainable and sustainable state in area. The case study of Hanjiang River Basin shows that these index can well describe the effect of land use/cover change at regional scale.更多还原