【作者】 马未宇；

【导师】 竺国强； 徐秀登；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 地质学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 地震预测是世界性的难题，本文在潮汐应力、构造应力、地震断层和岩石破裂滑动理论、岩石受力过程中的红外辐射实验的基础上，对我国及世界震前异常增温图像进行对比分析后认为：1、研究岩石受力过程中的红外辐射后认为岩石受力的辐射过程和辐射形式、特征与卫星红外观测的结果具有明显的一致性，也为卫星红外监测地震构造活动这一新方法奠定实验物理基础。2、通过物理模拟试验在相同气象条件下，加载350 V／m～700 V／m电场的大气温度比无电场大气升高4～6.6℃。对气象观测温度分析，得出临震红外增温有异于气象等非震增温的识别特征：增温趋势不受日照的控制性，高峰时间与发震时间的对应性；空间展布受活动构造带的控制性；增温持续时间相对持久性和昼夜相对稳定性。3、计算地震震源处沿主压应力P轴和主张应力T轴方向天体引潮力引力分量，以及天体引潮力在时间序列上的变化，描述了沿地震主压应力和地震主张应力方向的附加潮汐应力对发震断层的力学作用方式，并归结这种诱震作用分为增压型、减压型和混合型三种类型，天体引潮力不论是何种应力作用，它对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用，但只是引发地震发生的外部因素，而不是决定因素。决定地震发生的内部因素是地震构造的活动，因此分析引潮力的触发作用必须与地震构造相结合。地震发生在天体引潮力变化的峰值区域末端，和引潮力变化最大并不同步。天体引潮力的瞬时变化往往不能导致地震的发生，它对地震构造应力平衡的破坏作用是一个连续加速作用的过程。4、卫星红外图像是获得大范围地面温度的最有效途径之一。地震短临期间，红外增温异常实是地应力急剧增加的表现，通过红外增温异常可较直观地显示地震地质构造活动情况。红外增温异常图像与天体引潮力变化有较明显的对应关系表明，以卫星红外为主导因素，以潮汐应力变化为出发因素的地震预测，是一种很有希望的新思路和新方法。5、用美国NCEP温度资料，可以部分解决由于地面观测站点的分布不均匀，实际观测站点在特殊地形条件下的站点稀疏而无法实现全方位监测导致的遗漏问题和采用卫星红外观测过程中由于大量云层存在干扰导致红外无法有效穿透，监测地表温度变化的不利因素，实现对地面震前增温异常信息的有效监测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The earthquake forecast is difficult in our society, the paper use the theory of astro-tidal-triggering, construct stress, the seismic fault, rock break and slide and the infrared radiation experiment of rock endure to analyze the temperature increase abnormal images before impending earthquakes of the world and think that:1.The research shows that the rock infrared radiation under the stress is similar to the result of satellite infrared monitor in the procession, types, characters. These established an foundation to the new method of using the satellite to supervise the earthquake activity.2.Through physics simulating the same weather conditions, the temperature of atmosphere under the loading 350 V/m～700 V/m rise 4～6.6 centigrade than no electric field. To observe the weather temperature, got characters of the impending earthquake distinguished from the no earthquake temperature increase: the temperature rise was not controlled by the sunlight; the time of peak temperature is homologous to the time of earthquake occurrence; the spatial distributing was controlled by the belt of activity construct; the temperature increase is steadily and successive.3.Calculated the time fluctuations in the dynamics of the additive tectonic stress of astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA.), the paper classified the ATSA. into Pressurization type promotion slide, Reducing pressure type promotion slide and Pressurization and reducing pressure type promotion slide. The additive tectonic stress of astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) is only an external factor rather than a decisive factor. The decisive factor is seisinotectonic activity. The earthquake occurred at the end range of the ATSA peak value, it indicated that the ATSA didn’t spring the earthquake in suddenly, but it is a successively acceleration process.4.The anomaly temperature spatial-time evolution images provide an intuitionistic indication of the seismotectonic movement process. Using the short-term/impending development phase of earthquakes, as the temperature increase anomaly at the seismoenic area can rather intuitively indicate the conditions of the seism-tectonic movement; it is possible using the NCEP temperature abnormal increase evolution images to circle the temperature abnormal increase areas. Then, according to the relation between the time-wise evolution of the additive tectonic stress of astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) at faults, at different depths and different orientations within the identified temperature abnormal increase region, and their relation with the occurrence time of earthquakes, it is possible to predict the possible occurrence time of the developing earthquakes. Accordingly, using NCEP temperature abnormal increase evolution images as the main guideline, by analysis of the additive tectonic stress of astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) as the inducement condition, and with the seismic geological conditions as the basic condition, from a plane identifying the line, and from the line identifying the point to catch the earthquake, is most likely a very hopeful new earthquake prediction method during the short-term/impending developing phase of earthquakes.5.The NCEP images is one of the most effective data to attain anomaly temperature and the dynamic spatial-time information over large area, especially in certain special areas like ocean areas and land areas covered by the cloudy where the normal infrared bandwidth of satellites can’t effectively penetrate the cloudy, and thus can not provide the information of temperature abnormal increase.更多还原