【作者】 冯菁；

【导师】 夏自谦；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 本文以森林覆盖率大于30％作为指标，对我国所有县级行政单位进行筛选，共有637个县(市)作为森林资源丰富地区入选，以人均GDP作为地区经济发展水平的指标，以这637个县(市)的人均GDP值作为依据，计算出全国和各省森林资源丰富地区人均GDP值，并进行了排名，其结论是各省森林资源丰富地区的人均GDP排名与各省人均GDP排名是有差异的；全国和各省的森林资源丰富地区的人均GDP明显低于全国和各省人均GDP。全国森林资源丰富地区的人均GDP(5323元)仅相当于全国平均水平(人均GDP6547元)的81％，相差近1224元，由此得出我国森林资源丰富地区的经济发展水平落后于全国平均水平的结论。本文对目前在研究环境与经济发展水平中广泛使用的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行了介绍，并将其应用于森林资源与经济发展的研究中，结合国家所做出的我国生态建设正处在“治理与破坏相持阶段”的判断，由此确定我国的林业发展刚刚进入环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点。本文以人均GNI为划分依据，将世界上218个国家中可以查到统计数据的159个国家划分为高收入国家、中等收入国家和低收入国家，研究其森林资源与经济发展水平的关系，得出如下结论：(1)高收入国家的森林覆盖率、单位面积森林蓄积量与人均国内生产总值呈正相关的关系。(2)中等发达国家，人均国内生产总值与森林覆盖率呈负相关系。(3)低收入国家这两个指标也呈正相关。(4)低收入国家的森林资源与经济发展的关系较其它两类国家更为紧密，随着经济的发展，森林等资源对经济的贡献力量逐渐在减弱。同时，森林提供物质产品的重要性会随着经济的发展越来越低，其提供的非物质产品的重要性会随着经济发展越来越强。同时，以人均GDP当年的平均值6547元为划分依据，将我国的637个森林资源丰富县划分为发达地区和不发达地区，森林资源丰富县中共有90个县的人均GDP高于当年全国平均水平，而其它547个县属于经济欠发达地区，即经济发达的森林资源丰富县占14.13％，而经济欠发达的森林资源丰富县占85.87％。并用相关分析的方法研究经济发达地区与经济不发达地区森林覆盖率与人均GDP的相关关系，得出结论(1)经济发达地区的森林覆盖率与人均GDP的相关性虽然不大，但基本趋势是呈负相关的关系；(2)在欠发达地区，人均GDP与森林覆盖率呈正相关系，相关性较之发达地区明显。对比世界各国森林资源与经济发展的相关关系与中国森林资源丰富地区森林覆盖率与人均GDP的关系，发现它们之间有相似之处，基本趋势是一致的，但是世界各国的相关系数要小于中国的，这可能与我国长期以来实行的计划经济有关。通过纵向时间序列数据的研究，本文得出了天然林资源与经济发展呈“U”字型模式，人工林资源与经济发展呈“S”型模式的结论，并根据我国天然林与人工林与经济发展的模式拟合出我国森林资源与经济发展关系变化模式图。并指出我国现在在模式图中所处的位置。本文还指出我国森林资源丰富地区经济发展水平具有不均衡的特点：(1)不同省份森林丰富地区经济发展水平差异较大；(2)同一个省发达地区与欠发达地区的伴生现象严重；(3)各森林资源丰富县之间差异大。本文对森林资源丰富地区中191个国家级重点贫困县进行了研究，全国森林资源丰富地区的国家级贫困县占全国森林资源丰富县比率29.98％，要明显高于全国平均贫困县比率水平21.09％，这在一定程度上可以说明我国森林资源丰富地区的贫困率较高。用回归分析的方法得出各省森林资源丰富县与森林资源丰富县中的贫困县之间的相关性关系R=0.7316；各省的贫困县与森林资源丰富县中的贫困县之间的相关关系R=0.7658。总结了我国森林资源丰富地区贫困县分布的特点：(1)不均衡性；(2)民族性；(3)山区性，偏远性；(4)受政策影响大。论文分析了森林资源为何没有给当地带来富裕的原因。通过聚类分析，阐述了不同区域的森林资源丰富地区所应该采取的主要扶贫模式。即华北及中原森林资源丰富的地区应借助靠近大城市和人口众多的区位特点，主要开展开发式扶贫模式；西北地区应开展政府为主导的扶贫开发模式，以政府为主大力开展基础设施建设、生态环境建设和扶贫开发工作；西南和东北森林资源丰富的贫困地区应开展政府主导型扶贫模式及开发式扶贫(主要发展旅游业和生态产业)，对于一些自然条件极为恶劣，不再适合人类居住的地区应开展异地迁移扶贫模式；华南和东南主要以开发式扶贫模式和发展式扶贫模式为主。论文分第7章为案例分析，湖南省是我国森林资源较丰富的省份之一，以湖南省为例，尝试用主成分分析法对湖南省的县域综合发展水平进行排序，用层次分析法建立湖南省县域自然——经济——社会可持续发展综合评价模型，并对湖南省88个县的自然、经济和社会可持续发展协调度进行了评价，最后用可持续“晴雨表”法，对湖南省县域可持续发展状况进行判断，即湖南省88个县中没有属于可持续发展的县，有6个县属于基本可持续发展，大部分县属于基本不可持续发展和不可持续发展类型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper selects 637 countries (cities) with forest coverage higher than 30% from the whole countries of China as rich forest areas. The GDP per capita of different province and the whole country in the rich forest areas were calculated and ranged. The GDP per capita in the rich forest areas is lower than that in general area obviously. The GDP per capita in the rich forest areas of the whole country (5323 Yuan) was 81 percent of the average GDP per capita (6547 Yuan) and the difference was 1224 Yuan, so the conclusion that the economic development in the rich forest areas lagged behind the average level was obtained in this paper.This paper introduced the Environmental Kuznets Curve that was widely used to study the relationship between environment and the economic development, and applied it to study the relationship between the forest resource and economic development and reached a conclusion that the ecological construction of our country entered the stage locked in stalemate that the ecological restoration equal to the destruction.Basing on the GNI, the 159 countries which can obtain the statistical data from 218 countries all over the world were classified to three groups as high income, middle income and low income countries. Four conclusions were reached by the studies of the relationship between the forest resource and economic development, (1) the relationship between the forest coverage rate, stand volume per unit and the GNI per capita in high income countries was positive correlation; (2)in the middle income countries, the relationship between GNI per capita and the forest coverage rate was negative correlation; (3)in low income countries the relationship was positive correlation; (4)in the low income countries, the connection between the forest resource and the economic development was closer than other two groups for the contribution of the forest resource to the economic development becoming weak, and the material product provided by the forest diminishing but the immaterial product becoming more important gradually with the developing of the economy.The 637 countries rich in forest were divided into two groups: the developed countries(90) that GDP per capita in those countries higher than the average level, and the undeveloped countries(547) that GDP per capita in those countries lower than the average level, i.e. the developed countries accounting for 14.13 percent and the undeveloped countries accounting for 85.87 percent in the countries rich in forest resource. Two conclusions were reached by the study of the relationship between the forest coverage rate and GDP per capita in the rich forest areas with the correlation analysis method, (1)in developed countries rich in forest, the correlativity between the forest coverage rate and GDP per capita was negative, though the correlativity was weak; (2)in undeveloped countries rich in forest, the correlativity was positive and was more obvious than that in the developed countries.The basic trends between the forest coverage rate and GDP per capita in rich forest areas were similar in the world and in China, but the correlation coefficient in the world less than that in China that maybe because of the long time planned economy in China.Basing on the time series data, the paper finds that the mode between natural forest and economic development is U-shaped, and the mode between plantation and economic development is S-shaped. Founding on the natural forest and plantation modes, I design the model of the relationship between the forest and economic development in China, and point out the position that China present locates in the curve.The unbalanced characters of economic development in the rich forest areas were demonstrated: (1) the difference in rich forest areas between different provinces was big; (2) the developed rich forest areas and the undeveloped rich forest areas were always coexistence in a province; (3) the gap was great in different rich forest countries. In rich forest areas, there were 191 poverty-stricken counties, accounting for 29.98 percent, higher than the average level (21.09%) in the whole country; from the comparison we can find that the poverty rate in rich forest area was higher than the average level. The correlation coefficient of countries rich in forest resource and the poverty-stricken countries rich in forest resource is R=0.7316; and the correlation coefficient of poverty-stricken countries and the poverty-stricken countries rich in forest resource is R=0.7658. The distribution characteristics of the poverty-stricken countries rich in forest resource are unbalanced and mostly distributing in minority nationality area, mountainous area and remote area.The reasons why the rich forest resource did not bring wealth to the rich forest areas were found. By clustering analyse, the patterns of poverty alleviation were presented according to the regional characteristics. The North-China and central China should establish the exploitation-oriented poverty reduction model depending on the regional advantages that close to the big cities and have a large population; the northwest should establish a poverty reduction model that mainly depended on the leadership of the government, such as carry on the infrastructure construction, the eco-environmental construction and the poverty alleviation program; the southwest and northeast should establish the poverty reduction model that mainly depended on the leadership of the government and the exploitation-oriented poverty reduction model (mainly develop the tourism and ecological industry), and the population migration mode should be applied to the areas that natural environment is too bad to fit the people survival; South-China and southeast should establish the exploitation-oriented and development-oriented poverty reduction model.The chapter 7 was a case study of Hunan province, one of the provinces of China with rich forest resource, the sustainable development model was built and the harmonization status of 88 countries in Hunan province was evaluated by the principal component analysis method and the analytic hierarchy process. In the 88 countries, no country is sustainable development country, 6 countries are rudimental sustainable development countries, and most countries are non-sustainable development countries and rudimental non-sustainable development by the judge of barometer of sustainability.更多还原