水资源需求与调控研究

【作者】 李云玲；

【导师】 王浩；

【作者基本信息】 中国水利水电科学研究院 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 在我国面临严峻的水资源紧缺和水环境恶化的形势下，必须采取积极的措施抑制水资源需求快速增长的趋势，加强水资源的管理。迫切需要对水资源需求的机理进行研究，研究科学的用水模式、水资源需求调控方式以及进行水资源需求管理的有效措施。因此，本文围绕这几个方面展开研究，主要取得了以下初步研究成果：①提出水资源合理需求的概念，剖析了需水与用水的关系，结合我国水资源开发利用的具体实践，从宏观尺度上提出水资源需求发展的阶段性特征，同时对影响水资源需求变化的驱动因素和制约因素进行定量和定性分析。②系统总结和评价了国内外水资源需求预测研究现状及其计算方法，提出了宏观规划中适宜应用的方法，以及如何对其结果的合理性进行检验的方法。③从水资源循环利用的角度，提出水资源需求调控的机理；通过分析产业结构调整与产业布局、节水工程、经济、科技以及管理等手段对水资源需求的调控影响，建立未来我国水资源需求调控的目标，并对其调控效果进行了分析。④详细分析了我国各个用水部门用水发展历程及其用水效率，并与世界上其他国家进行比较，对我国用水与节水水平做出了评价，为我国水资源需求与调控提供了客观依据。⑤应用本文提出的水资源需求与调控的理论与方法，对我国十个水资源一级区的未来水资源需求态势进行了分析，并进行了定量预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Facing the severe situations that water resources were getting scarce and environments becoming deteriorative in China, some measures must be taken to suppress the requirements and to enhance the managements in water resources. Furthermore, it was necessary to investigate the mechanism of water resources demand (WRD), the patterns of water using as well as the measures taken for effectively managing water resources requirements. Therefore, some explorations, which surrounding the several problems proposed onwards, were carried out and some major results of this study were listed as follows:The definition applied for reasonable demands of water resources was put forward and the relations between water requirement and employment were analyzed. The phased characteristics behaved during the development of WRD were presented at a macro level, which combined with the practices from exploration and utilization of water resources in China. At the same time, some factors that had influences on the changes happening in WRD were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively.The study progresses and methodologies in the prediction of WRD were reviewed and evaluated systemically from home and abroad. The applicable methods as well as the means with which how to verify the validity of results were brought forward during the programming of WRD.The mechanisms involved in regulating WRD were proposed from the view of circulating utilization of water resources. The targets and impacts referring to regulating WRD were established and analyzed respectively in the future in China, through analyzing the influences that some measures such as modifications and distributions of industry structure, water-saving projects, economy, science and technology, along with managements etc had on the regulating WRDThe developing courses and efficiencies of water using were analyzed elaborately in various sections relating to employing water resources in China. The levels of water using and water saving were evaluated to provide a reasonable basis for demands and regulations of water resources, compared with those of other counties in the world.The developing tendencies of WRD were analyzed and predicted quantitatively in 10 one-classified water resources regions in China, applying the theories and methods of water resources demands and regulations presented in this study.更多还原