国家冲突阴影下的贸易增长：一种社会—国家的分析

【作者】 宋国友；

【导师】 吴心伯；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际关系， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 贸易增长和冲突之间的关系已经引起了国际关系学者的广泛关注，不过学者们更多的是从贸易增长会抑制冲突还是容易产生冲突这个角度展开论述的，对反方向的研究——国家间冲突对贸易的影响——则鲜有着墨。但在现实的国际政治中，确实存在着冲突阴影下的贸易增长现象，遗憾的是，这些现象既没有受到应有的重视，也缺乏必要的理论解释。如果能其进行合理阐述，无论是对于提高已有理论的准确度及生命力，还是发展出新的国际关系理论，都大有裨益。本文构建了“社会-国家”模型以解释冲突阴影下的贸易增长现象。该理论模型从传统的国家中心论的窠臼中跳出，在重视国家行为体继续在国际关系领域发挥重要作用的同时，把社会作为另一个可以与国家行为体相提并论的重要行为体引入国际政治的研究领域，提出在世界政治领域，社会和国家都是具有主体性身份的重要行为体，但由于偏好的不同，社会和国家各自所追求的目标以及其行为存在着相当大的差异。总体上，国家行为遵从安全最大化逻辑，力图建立保持并扩大与它国的安全优势；而社会体的行为依照福利最大化逻辑，以提高经济福利为各种政治活动的出发点。“社会-国家”模型将国内社会力量的作用和国家的外在安全敏感性及战略选择加以结合，强调不仅必须通过社会行为体的视角来了解国家行为，而且也必须在国家属性的基础上把握社会力量。本文认为，在争夺对政府政策制定的主导权时，社会行为体和国家行为体在竞争中合作和妥协，而非彼此脱离并完全对立，这使得政府的对外贸易政策必须在国家的安全偏好和社会的福利偏好之间寻求某种平衡。平衡并非绝对的对等，而是在安全和福利之间有所侧重，到底侧重于哪方，既取决于不同行为体的力量对比，也取决于一国特定的政治制度和所处的国际安全结构和经济结构。侧重于社会行为体和经济福利的平衡便造成了冲突下的贸易增长现象。作为对社会-国家模型的检验和运用，本文选取冷战后的美国对华贸易政策的制定为案例进行深入分析。本文认为，和中国开展贸易对美国国内不同社会行为体的经济福利有着不同的影响，这些社会行为体进行了各种政治行动以维护自身利益。在这些行为体的影响下，加之本国政治制度的特点，美国政府最终采取了总体上对华自由贸易的政策。但是由于国家行为体的压力，美国政府同时对中国采取防范措施和歧视政策，其中主要包括出口控制、贸易歧视政策和实行经济制裁等。更多还原

【Abstract】 More and more scholars have focused on the interaction between trade growth and conflict in international relations. Most of them study this interesting issue from the perspective of trade growth inhibiting interstate conflict or inducing interstate conflict, however, with respect to whether or not conflict will impact trade relations, the existing literature does not provide a convincing explanation despite the facts of trade growth in the shadow of conflict. Therefore, understanding how trade ties and growth can develop even in the shadow of severe political tensions will not only help us better comprehend international relations theory but also facilitate the birth of new theory.To solve the puzzle, I construct a "society-state" model. "Society-state" model goes beyond traditional "state-centered" theory in terms of not regarding state as the only actor though it still insists that state is actually one of the most important actors in world politics. Meanwhile, "society-state" model posits that we should bring the society into international relations theory and consider its crucial role in world politics seriously. As two most significant actors, however, society and state have different preferences: the former seeks economic welfare while the later strives for national security. Due to their different preferences, society and state pursue different goals and consequently behave differently. The "society-state" approach has many academic merits. The biggest one is that it not only emphasizes the great diversity of preference between society and state but also aims to integrate both into a comprehensive framework in which they interact.In the struggle to affect the foreign policy, society and state will compromise rather than totally oppose each other, which makes the government balance between economic interest and security concern during the process of foreign policy making. Actually, balancing here does not mean absolute evenness on welfare or security. As to whether society or state will be considered more by government, it depends on both their power balance and the political institutions in which they exist. In addition, the final outcome stems from the international economic structure and security conditions. As a result of more emphasis on the society, trade growth can come into being even in the shadow of conflict.China-U.S bilateral trade relation and America’s trade policy towards China after the cold war are selected as the case to test the "society-state" model. Trading with China has diverse impact on domestic societal actors in U.S.A., some benefit from it while other are hurt. Actors who share the same preference will form political coalitions and take part in all kinds of political activities to present their own interest. Partly because of the power balance of different coalitions, partly because of its particular political institutions, U.S. government eventually adopts a free trade policy toward China. Meanwhile, it takes wary measures and discrimination policies toward China under the realistic pressure from national security.更多还原