【作者】 李小军；

【导师】 沈丁立；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际关系， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 导弹是大规模杀伤性武器的最佳运载工具，导弹的扩散给人类生存和国际安全带来了现实威胁，是国际社会优先关注的安全议题，导弹控制机制则是国际社会治理导弹扩散的重要选项。在美国的主导和默许下，国际社会创立了“导弹及其技术控制制度”(MTCR)、“防止弹道导弹扩散国际行为准则”(ICOC)、“防扩散安全倡议”(PSI)和“全球导弹监控机制”(GCS)，其中MTCR是导弹控制的核心机制，ICOC、PSI和GCS是导弹控制的准机制。核心机制与准机制相互作用和相互补充，构成了较为完备的导弹控制体系。论文的主要目的就是在分析现有导弹控制制度控制内容、运行机制和决策程序的基础上，对导弹控制制度进行全面的绩效评估，寻找导弹控制制度功效低下的症结，指出未来导弹控制的发展方向。通过分析和评估国内外研究现状，论文将力求在三个方面有所突破：一是尝试建立一种理论分析框架。导弹控制研究的技术性、法理性和实践性很强，国内外研究基本上都是一种实证性研究，理论研究比较薄弱。为评估现有导弹控制体系的控制功效，本文把国际机制引入导弹控制领域，尝试为导弹控制研究提供一种理论分析框架。二是对导弹扩散和导弹控制进行全面、系统的研究。西方学者对导弹扩散的研究重点集中于“无赖国家”、“导弹供应国”和第三世界国家身上，没有关注或很少关注西方发达国家的导弹扩散，没有指出西方发达国家对导弹扩散应负的主要国际责任；没有从西方发达国家与发展中国家、国家与地区、横向扩散与纵向扩散结合的基础上研究导弹扩散问题；西方学者只把MTCR看作导弹控制的唯一核心机制，不认为ICOC、PSI和GCS是导弹控制体系的重要组成部分。论文在克服这些研究缺陷的基础上，力争对导弹扩散和导弹控制进行全面系统的研究。三是观点上有所突破。许多发展中国家把歧视性看作是MTCR的主要制度缺陷。三大准机制的创立旨在克服和超越MTCR的缺陷，但努力的结果是制造出了更大的缺陷。因此，本文认为歧视性安排是现有导弹控制体系的基础，如果完全消除歧视性，现有的导弹控制体系就丧失了存在的基础。全文近20万字，主要内容包括引论、正文三部分和结论。论文的主要内容如下：引论首先是提出问题，然后在分析和评估国内外研究现状的基础上，阐述了论文需要解决的主要问题、研究方法和论文可能的创新之处。第一章是评估国际机制功能的理论框架，主要是为评估现有导弹控制体系的功效提供理论分析框架。论文在遴选和界定国际机制概念的基础上，从国际机制的有效性、合法性和局限性三个方面建构理论框架，最后分析了运用国际机制研究导弹控制的可能性和现实意义。第二章概述了导弹扩散的历史与现状，第三章则具体分析了导弹扩散的动因，是为后面章节的研究提供背景知识。论文从国家和地区两个层次上分析了导弹扩散的历史与现状。在国家层次上，论文选取美国、俄罗斯和中国作为研究对象；在地区层次上，论文选取南亚、中东和东北亚三个地区作为研究对象。通过对导弹大国和热点地区导弹扩散的分析，基本勾勒出全球导弹扩散的概貌。在此基础上，论文从导弹扩散的理论解释、导弹扩散的美国因素和导弹扩散的现实诱因三个方面探讨了导弹扩散的动因和根源。第四章和第五章分别研究了导弹控制的核心机制和三大准机制。MTCR是在美国的主导下创立的，论文分析了美国导弹防扩散政策的形成对MTCR创立的影响，机制目标的实现路径，MTCR框架下的国家出口控制，MTCR与中国的关系。三大准机制旨在克服和超越MTCR的缺陷，论文从机制创立的背景、机制控制内容和决策程序等方面对准机制进行了全面分析和研究。第六章和第七章是对导弹控制体系的绩效评估。论文运用国际机制理论分析框架，结合案例研究方法，从有效性、局限性和合法性方面对现有导弹控制制度进行了全面的绩效评估。通过分析研究，本文得出如下结论：第一、歧视性安排是现有导弹控制体系的基础；第二、现有导弹控制体系的控制功效总体低下；第三、导弹扩散的长期存在具有一定的现实必然性；第四、导弹控制的未来是建立全面的条约机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 The proliferation of missiles, the most important delivery systems for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), poses severe threats to human being as well as international security and thus has become the primary security concern of international community. As the main approach to this issue, the international missile control regimes consist of the core Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and some quasi ones such as International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (ICOC), Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and Global Control System for Non-Proliferation of Missiles and Missile Technology (GCS). Based on the systematical examination of the contents, working regimes and policy-making procedure of the missile control system, this thesis aims to evaluate its effects and figures out why it does not function well and how it will develop in the future.Compared with current research literatures, this thesis is supposed to make the following breakthroughs.The first one is the establishment of a theoretical framework. Different from the existing literatures on the study of missile control regimes, most of which focus on the technicality, legitimacy and practices of the regimes, this thesis attempts to establish a theoretical framework for evaluating the effects of the missile control regimes by applying the theory of international regimes.The second one is the complete and systematical research of missile proliferation and control. In their study on the missile proliferation, the western scholars usually pay close attention to the "rogue states", "the suppliers of missile" and the third world countries rather than the western countries, which in fact should be responsible for the proliferation of missile. Furthermore, they regard MTCR as the only core regime for missile control and deny the fact that ICOS, PSI and GCS are the important parts of the missile control system. To avoid these biases and prejudices, this thesis tries to make a complete and systematical study of missile proliferation and control.The third breakthrough this thesis achieves is shown in its research findings. Most of the developing countries think that the major institutional drawback of MTCR is its discrimination. The three quasi regimes established for overcoming the drawback of MTCR have caused more serious problems. So, this thesis argues that discrimination is the basis of the current missile control system; if discrimination iseliminated thoroughly, the missile control system will not exist any more.The whole paper, approximately 200,000 words, consists of foreword, text with seven chapters and conclusions. It develops as the following.The foreword firstly raises the question, on the basis of analyzing and evaluating domestic and overseas research status, and introduces the central problems this thesis is going to resolve. It also introduces research approach and the potential findings of the paper.The first chapter is theoretic framework of evaluation function of international regimes, basically the evaluating efficacy of the existing missile control system. On the basis of selecting and ascertaining the concept of international regimes, the paper constructs theoretic framework in terms of efficiency, validity and deficiency of international regimes, and finally analyzes the possibility and realistic significance in the way of applying international regimes to researching missile control.The second chapter which offers the history and status of the missile control proliferation while the third one which mainly analyzes the cause, thus gives background knowledge for the follow chapters. The thesis analyzes the history and status of missile proliferation on both national and regional aspects. On the national aspect, the paper selects the US, Russia and China as researching objects. On the regional aspect, the paper selects South Asia, Middle East and Northeast Asia as researching objects. By the way of analyzing the missile proliferation about the important nations and significant regions, one can basically draw the picture of the missile diffusion. Based on the above research, the paper discusses its cause and the root of the missile proliferation on the theoretic explanation, the American factor and the realistic incentives.The fourth and fifth chapters discuss the core regime and three quasi- regimes of the missile control. MTCR is founded under the initiative of the US. This thesis analyzes how the formation of American missile nonproliferation policy influences the foundation of MTCR, the achieving path of the regime’s aim, the national export control under the MTCR framework, the connection between MTCR and China. The three quasi-regimes aim at conquering and surpassing the deficiency of the MTCR. The paper makes research on the quasi-regimes in terms of the background of the regime’s founding, the content of the regime control, the policy-making procedure.The sixth and seventh chapters evaluate the performance of the missile control regime. The thesis applies the analytical framework of the international regime theoryand integrates case studies to evaluate efficiency of existing missile control regimes in terms of efficiency, validity and deficiency.Based of the above research, this thesis has reached conclusions as follow.Firstly, discriminatory arrangement is the basis of the existing missile control system.Secondly, the existing missile control system has low efficiency.Thirdly, the existence of the missile proliferation has certain realistic rationality.Fourthly, in the future the direction of missile control is to work out a full-scale missile control treaty regime.更多还原