【作者】 牛建英；

【导师】 崔彬； 王高尚；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源产业经济， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 我国随着工业化、城市化进程的加快，对能源、重要矿产等战略矿产资源的需求量大幅度增加，煤炭、钢铁、铜等矿产品成为世界上第一消费大国。由于国内能源供应能力受资源条件的限制，矿产资源储量迅速减少和产能下降，导致对石油、铁、铜、铝等战略矿产资源及其初级产品的进口量明显攀升。而国际市场能源、原材料价格持续上涨，使我国为此付出高昂的代价。世界原材价格暴涨，市场垄断程度提高，不但增加了我国经济发展的资源成本而且还加剧了供应安全风险。基于对国际国内战略矿产资源的界定，确定以石油(天然气)、铁、铜、铝、镍等对国民经济的稳定与发展具有战略意义的矿产资源为主要研究对象，着眼于战略矿产资源的资源本身特征、产业、市场、运输、地缘政治、世界矿业格局等，分析战略矿产资源安全的风险来源及影响程度；评估我国重要战略矿产资源的供需形势，建立战略矿产资源安全供应保障机制；对国民经济安全运行十分重要。研究从战略矿产资源安全理论入手，从资源、产业、市场、储运、地缘政治的诸多方面，探讨影响战略矿产资源安全的主要要素及其相关关系。引入计量经济学方法和模型，定量和定型相结合，建立战略矿产资源安全的评估方法和指标体系，评价战略矿产资源安全状况。本研究取得的主要结论如下：1．战略矿产资源供应安全直接关系到资源产业以及我国国民经济安全运行的基础。从国际国内资源供需和市场趋势来看，近期我国的战略矿产资源供需矛盾和安全风险还将加剧。在全球能源、资源性产品价格不断上涨的情况下，我们不仅要面对价格波动带来的生产成本的增加和商业风险，而且要面对其中蕴藏着的潜在的政治风险和资源安全风险。2．中国资源供应安全形势严峻大宗支柱性矿产储量不足，保障程度低，远远不能保障工业化进程对资源的巨大需求；矿产品对外依存还将不断增大；世界矿业格局对中国的资源安全和经济利益构成严峻挑战；原材料新的长期高价格平台将深刻影响中国及世界的产品价格体系和产业结构变化。3．资源安全对中国经济已经造成了现实的影响资源高价位(资源风险)已经对中国经济安全构成现实威胁，粗放式高增长不是表观上表现的资源能源高消费，而是增长效益的粗放，这种粗放式增长是以牺牲人的价值和社会公平为代价的。高增长暂时掩盖并积蓄着潜在的风险(产业风险、金融风险、市场风险和增长减速等)；4．资源安全程度整体降低5．提出建立资源安全保障条件(1)建立全球资源及市场信息收集、分析、决策系统(2)建立资源安全应急反应机制(3)完善资源安全保障的政策资源更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, requirement of energy, important mineral, etc. strategic mineral resources increases dramatically at a large extent, our country becomes the largest consumption country in the world in terms of coal, iron & steel, copper, etc. mineral products. Due to domestic energy supplying capability limited by resources condition, mineral resources reserve decreased sharply and production capability going down, import of petroleum, iron, copper, aluminum, e c. strategic mineral resources and their primary products increase evidently. Meanwhile, prices of energy and raw materials at international market going up constantly results in a high price paid by our country for the same. Global raw material price soaring and market monopolization increasing not only add more resources cost to our country for economic development, but also aggravates risk to supply safety.Based on definition of international and domestic strategic mineral resources, petroleum (natural gas), iron, copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. mineral resources which have strategic significance to national economy stability and development are determined as major research target, taking into consideration of strategic mineral resources’ own feature, industry, market, transportation, geopolitics, global mineral industry pattern, etc. to analyze risk source of strategic mineral resources safety and its influence extent to evaluate the supply and requirement situation of our country’s important strategic mineral resources, so as to establish a safe supply security mechanism for strategic mineral resources; these are vital importance to safety operation of national economy.Starting with strategic mineral resources safety theory, taking into consideration of resources, industry, market, stock & transportation, geopolitics, etc. features, this research probes key elements which have influence to strategic mineral resources safety and their interrelation.By introducing econometrics method and model, with combination of quantitative and qualitative, to establish evaluation method and index system of strategic resources safety, and to evaluate strategic mineral resources safety status. The followings are main conclusions achieved by this research:1. Strategic mineral resources supply safety is directly related to resources industry and foundation of our national economy safe operation.Judged from global and domestic resources supply and requirement and market trend, in recent period, our strategic mineral resources supply and requirement contradiction and safety risk will be further strengthened. Under the situation of price constantly increasing of global resources, resource type products, we not only will face manufacturing cost increase and commercial risk caused by price fluctuation, but also face potential political risk and resources safety risk hided inside.2. China resources supply safety situation is severeStaple and mainstay mineral reserve is not sufficient, with low security degree, it can’t guarantee by large extent the huge requirement to resources by industrialization process. Relying on import of mineral products will constantly strengthen. Global mineral pattern forms a severe challenge to China resources safety and economic benefit. The new long- term high price platform of raw material will influence deeply China and global products’ price system and industries structure variation.3. Resources safety has caused a actual affect to China economyHigh price level of resources(resources risk) has already formed a actual threaten to China economy, extensive-type high increasing is not apparently displayed by resources and energy high consumption, but displayed by extensiveness of increased benefit, this extensive-type increasing is at the cost of sacrifice human being’s value and social fair. High increasing hides temporarily and accumulates potential risks(industrial risk, monetary risk, market risk and increasing deceleration, etc.4. Resources safety degree descends as a whole.5. Presenting conditions to establish resources safety security1) To establish global resources and market information collection, analysis and decision system.2) To establish resources safety emergency reaction mechanism.3) To optimize policy source for resources safety security.更多还原