【作者】 张文辉；

【导师】 沈荣芳；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 认知、评估和防范转型期的城市重大火灾风险是实现现代化的迫切需要，具有重大社会现实意义。但是，在我国消防安全工作的理论和实践中，如何科学、宏观地认识转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险系统；如何系统、规范地评估转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险；如何从战略高度积极有效地防范转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险；诸如此类，长期以来在学术探索和业务探索中都缺乏关注和研究。因此，研究转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险势所必然，势在必行。以城市现代化创新、转型和重构及其灾变为背景，以宏观的安全资源利用为目标(而不是微观的安全资源配置)，以风险的结构性变迁为主线；这构成了城市灾害(火灾)管理领域科学研究的关键需求，也构成了论文进行宏观研究的基本取向。 论文的综述研究表明，城市区域火灾风险认知在国外表现为一种自发的结构化演进的过程，而在国内则表现为一种自觉的结构化演进过程；但是，人们对城市区域火灾风险系统的宏观化认知尚待起步。同时，综述研究也表明，从城市区域火灾风险评估研究的理论演进来看，相比于微观型的研究路线，“社会经济性状路线”由于深刻关乎“城市公共(消防)安全与现代化创新”这一宏观而永恒的主题，在学术研究和业务实践活动中开始受到重视，日益凸现为一条新兴的研究路线；但是，城市区域火灾风险的综合评估仍然需要加强系统化探索。而且，综述研究还表明，在推进社会经济可持续发展的过程中，国内外城市区域火灾风险的防范工作，正在努力适应现代化和全球化条件下的风险社会环境的严峻挑战，因此城市消防规划必然需要走向战略化创新。总之，综述研究表明，国内外的城市区域火灾风险研究工作总体上仍然有待突破微观的资源配置型的框架，因此必须根据转型期的特点和可持续发展的原则而明确地转向宏观的资源利用型的目标框架，诉诸于社会型政策型的研究方向，用以创建结构性、体制性的社会本质安全。 论文由此而确立并采用了城市区域火灾风险研究的宏观化、系统化和战略化的结构主义路线，提出和阐述了“城市区域火灾风险系统论”。论文认为，研究城市区域火灾风险首先必需与社会经济现代化转型联系起来；然后，城市区域火灾风险系统可以理解为由城市区域火灾风险的致灾因子、承灾体和孕灾环境这三个子系统共同构成的城市区域异变系统，是城市区域火灾事件的发生及其引发的后果在时间维上的危险性、在空间维上的脆弱性和在组织维的易损性等等这些各种不同的可能性以及上述诸种可能性的集合；最后，有效防范城市区域火灾风险必须探索消防安全战略规划理论。 因此，论文的研究对象是转型期的我国大中城市的城市区域重大火灾的宏观风险。论文从城市社会经济建设与消防安全的基本矛盾出发，围绕着城市区域重大火灾风险的宏观认知、城市区域重大火灾风险的综合评估、和城市区域重大火灾风险的防范策略等三个有机联系的关键问题展开系统的结构主义的宏观研究和战略分析，重点探索了城市区域重大火灾风险的宏观认知和综合评估，并相应提出了转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险防范策略，从而初步实现了适用于转型期的我国大中城市的城市区域重大火灾风险宏观认知、综合评估和战略防范的理论和方法的系统研究。 在城市区域重大火灾风险的宏观认知方面，论文提出：研究火灾风险需要结合城市化、工业化和市场化等现代化转型的进程；对此，火灾风险的宏观要素可以归纳为人口转移、产业转型、经济转制、能源转变和火灾惯性。以H城为实例，论文建立了可供定量分析的回归模型群，并可用于划分宏观风险源的级别。这为探索和研究转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险理论建立认识论依据。 在城市区域重大火灾风险的综合评估方面，论文构建了宏观型的火灾风险系统，认为它由具有时间序的宏观危险性、具有空间序的宏观脆弱性和具有组织序的宏观易损性构成。论文基于火灾风险系统的基本结构、要素和功能的系统分析与宏观认知，以H城为实例，提出了评估指标体系、综合评估模型和算法，采用DEA模型进行了试评估。试评估的效果良好，在课题验收时得到专家肯定。这为探索和研究转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险理论建立了方法论依据。 在城市区域重大火灾风险的防范策略方面，论文基于火灾风险认知和评估的实例研究及定量分析，首次探讨了现代化转型与消防安全的若干关系；并相应提出了防范火灾危险性、脆弱性和易损性的宏观策略，比如，优化人口结构的安全水平。对此，论文初步采用了可用于消防战略规划的安全优化模型，为探索和研究转型期的城市区域重大火灾风险理论建立了实践论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is urgent necessary for realizing modernization to take cognizance of the risk of urban major fire, to assess it, and to guard against it during the socioeconomic transition period in China. But, there are some defects that need to make better in the service of fire prevention, such as how to distinguish scientifically and macroscopically the risk system of urban major fire during the transition period, how to assess it systematically and normally, how to prevent it actively and effectively according to a certain strategic principle, and so forth. All of these problems have been short of attention and researches in the academic explorations and the service explorations since long ago. Therefore, it is inevitably and imperative to study the risk of urban major fire during the socioeconomic transition period in our country.The summary of this study has indicated that, it is one kind of spontaneous evolution to structurize the cognition of urban fire risk in some foreign countries, oppositely, it is a kind of aware processes to structurize it in the domestic performance. In spite of such progress, it is time that the people start to the steps for the macro-risk cognition of urban major fire. At the same time, in the view of the theoretical evolution of the study on risk assessment of urban fire, the summary has also indicated that, the research route of socioeconomic character is an emerging one; it has begun to be taken seriously in the scholarly researches and service practices day by day; Because, it is more related profoundly to this macroscopic and the eternal subject on the relationship between the public (fire prevention) security and the modernization in cities, than the microscopic research routes are . However, it is still requisite for the synthetic assessment of urban fire risk to strengthen the explorations of the studies with systematization. Moreover, the summary has also indicated that, while making progress toward the process of socioeconomic sustainable development, the works of the domestic and foreign cities, such as the works for guarding fire risk, are adapting diligently to the stern environments and challenges from the risk society under the conditions of the modernization and globalization. Therefore, it is inevitably for the plans of fire prevention to be geared to the needs of the innovation with strategy. In conclusion, the summary has also indicated that, as a whole, the domestic and foreign works about urban fire-risk researches have still remained to breakthrough the microscopic resources-disposition frame, therefore need to change explicitly over to the macroscopic resources-using goal frame according to the transition periodcharacteristics and the sustainable development principle, resorted to the research direction of society policies in order to establish structural and institutional social essence security.Thereout, the paper has established and adopted the structuralism route in order to research a macroscopic, systematical and strategic theory on the urban fire-risk. It has also proposed and elaborated "the theory of urban fire-risk system". The paper has pointed that urban fire-risk research should relate to socioeconomic modernization transition firstly. Then, the urban fire-risk system could be understood as the urban differentiation system, which is composed of three sub-systems, such as the causes of disasters, the receiving objects, and the environment gestating disasters. It is an aggregate of different possibilities, such as the danger with the sequence of time, the macro-frailty with the dimension of space, and the macro-vulnerability with the dimension of organization. Finally, it is necessary to explore the theory on the strategy planning of security against fire for guarding urban fire-risk effectively.Therefore, the analytic object of this paper is the macro-risk of urban major fire during the socioeconomic transition period in big or media-sized cities in our country. The paper embarks upon the basic contradiction between the socioeconomic construction and the security against fire, launches the systematical macroexaminations and the strategic analyses on three organic connective key questions, such as distinguishing the risk of urban major fire macroscopically, assessing it systematically, and preventing it with strategies. It has explored with emphasis on the macro-risk cognition and the integrative assessment of urban major fire. Then, it has correspondingly proposed the prevention countermeasures for the risk of urban major fire during the transition period. Thus, it has realized initially the systematical research on the theories and the methods with regard to the macro-risk cognition, the integrative assessment, and the prevention countermeasures for the risk of urban major fire, which could have been suitable for the transition period in big or media-sized cities in our country.In the aspect of the macroscopic cognition for urban major fire-risk, this paper has proposed that, fire-risk research needs to unify modernization, such as urbanization, industrialization, and so on. Confronting this, it has classified the fire-riskmacroscopic factor into the transferring of population, the industrial transition, the reforming of economic system, the energy transformation, and the fire inertia. Taking a case of the city H, the paper has set up the models of regression function for quantitative analyses, which can be also used to rank the macro-risk factors. This has established the epistemology basis for the explorations and the researches of the theory on the risk of urban major fire.In the aspect of the integrative assessment for the risk of urban major fire, the paper has constructed the macroscopic fire-risk system, which, as it said, is composed of the macro-danger with the sequence of time, the macro-frailty with the dimension of space, and the macro-vulnerability with the dimension of organization. Based on the systematical analyses and macroscopic cognition on the basic structure, the essential factor, and the function of the fire-risk system, this article has proposed the index system of fire-risk assessment, the synthetic assessment model, and the algorithm of the model. It has made one tentative assessment using a DEA model by taking a case of the city H. The effect of this assessment was appraised to be good, which affirmed by the experts when the project checked and accepted. So, this has established the methodology basis for explorations and researches of the theory on the risk of urban major fire.In the aspect of the guard strategies for urban major fire-risk, this article has discussed the relationships between modernization and the security against fire for the first tine, which is based on fire-risk cognition and assessment using the case analyses and quantitative analyses. Accordingly, it has also proposed the prevention countermeasures against fire-danger, frailty and vulnerability. For example, the city may optimize the security level of population structure. Confronting this, the paper has adopted the security-optimization model which can be elementary used to fire-prevention planning. This has established the practical basis for explorations and researches of the theory on the risk of urban major fire.更多还原